8 - The Prospects of Democratization in Vietnam and China and Implications for Bilateral Relations

Summary

Introduction

Thirty years of development under Doi Moi have not only transformed Vietnam economically, but also generated important political implications for the country. Significant socio-economic development achieved under Doi Moi, according to modernization theory, will contribute to the prospect of Vietnam transitioning itself into a liberal democracy in the long run. Such a prospect is not only consequential for Vietnam's domestic politics, but also carries important implications for Vietnam's foreign relations, including those with China. As China itself may ultimately undertake democratic transition as well, internal political developments in each country will open up a number of different possible directions in which future bilateral relations could evolve.

In effect, there are four major scenarios in which domestic conditions in both Vietnam and China could shape the future trajectory of bilateral relations. The first is more or less the same as the current situation in which both Vietnam and China remain authoritarian states with the CPV and CCP maintaining their firm grip on power. The second and third scenarios involve the possibility of one of the two countries democratizing while the other remains authoritarian. Finally, under the fourth scenario, both Vietnam and China transform themselves into liberal democracies. As such, the domestic political transformations of each of the above scenarios will inevitably add further nuances to the already complicated relationship. The prospects of democratization in both countries and their implications for bilateral relations therefore merit serious examination.

The current chapter looks into future political prospects of Vietnam and China and investigate their implications for bilateral relations. Accordingly, the chapter adopts the theoretical tenets of modernization theory to argue that as both Vietnam and China achieve further progress in their socio-economic development, they will move closer towards political democratization. However, the exact timing of such a transformation in each country is unknown, making it necessary to consider all four possible scenarios mentioned above. By analysing these scenarios and taking into account other independent variables, most notably the ongoing South China Sea disputes and the regional strategic environment, this chapter argues that contrary to expectations of liberal peace theorists, the first scenario in which both countries remain authoritarian tends to be more favourable for a stable bilateral relationship than the other three scenarios.