New Uncertainty Concepts in Hydrology and Water Resources

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511564482

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One of the greatest problems hydrology research faces is how to quantify uncertainty, which is inherent in every hydrological process. This overview of uncertainty emphasizes non-orthodox concepts, such as random fields, fractals and fuzziness. This book reviews alternative and conventional methods of risk and uncertainty representation in hydrology and water resources. The water-related applications discussed in the book pertain to areas of strong interest, such as multifractals and climate change impacts. The authors represent a variety of research backgrounds, achieving a broad subject coverage. The material covered provides an important insight into theories of uncertainty related to the field of hydrology. The book is international in its scope, and will be welcomed by researchers and graduate students of hydrology and water resources.

"Atmospheric science students who are not chemists or who do not have an extensive background in chemistry have long needed a primer on the physical chemical aspects of atmospheric (and other environmental) chemical processes. The book under review here mainly succeeds in fulfilling that need." James P. Friend, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-vi
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Contents
pp vii-x
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List of Authors
pp xi-xii
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Preface
pp xiii-xiv
- By Z. W. Kundzewicz
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I - INTRODUCTION
pp 1-2
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1 - Hydrological uncertainty in perspective
pp 3-10
- By Z. W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre of Agricultural and Forest Environment Studies, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland
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II - FACETS OF UNCERTAINTY
pp 11-12
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1 - Bayesian relative information measure – a tool for analyzing the outputs of general circulation models
pp 13-24
- By M. E. Moss, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, Arizona, USA
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2 - A stochastic weather generator using atmospheric circulation patterns and its use to evaluate climate change effects
pp 25-31
- By A. Bárdossy, Institute for Hydrology and Water Management, University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany
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3 - Hydrological uncertainty – floods of Lake Eyre
pp 32-38
- By V. Kotwicki, Water Resources Branch, Engineering and Water Supply Department, Adelaide, Australia, Z. W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre of Agricultural and Forest Environment Studies, Pol. Acad. Sci., Poznań and Institute of Geophysics, Pol. Acad. Sci., Warsaw, Poland
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4 - Some aspects of hydrological design under non-stationarity
pp 39-44
- By W. G. Strupczewski, Civil Engineering Department, The University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada, H. T. Mitosek, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
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5 - New plotting position rule for flood records considering historical data and palaeologic information
pp 45-52
- By Guo Sheng Lian, Department of Engineering Hydrology, University College Galway, Ireland, on leave from Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering, Wuhan, People's Republic of China
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III - NOVEL APPROACHES TO UNCERTAINTY: FRACTALS, FUZZY SETS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION, NON-PARAMETRIC METHODS
pp 53-54
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1 - Dispersion in stratified soils with fractal permeability distribution
pp 55-60
- By M. W. Kemblowski, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, Utah,, Jet-Chau Wen, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
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2 - Multifractals and rain
pp 61-103
- By S. Lovejoy, Physics Department, McGill University, Montreal, Canada, D. Schertzer, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, C.N.R.S., Paris, France
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3 - Is rain fractal?
pp 104-108
- By I. Zawadzki, Department of Physics, University of Québec in Montréal, Canada
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4 - Multifractal structure of rainfall occurrence in West Africa
pp 109-113
- By P. Hubert, CIG, Ecole des Mines de Paris, Fontainebleau, France, F. Friggit, Eiier, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, J. P. Carbonnel, CNRS, Université P. & M. Curie, Paris, France
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5 - Analysis of high-resolution rainfall data
pp 114-120
- By K. P. Georgakakos, Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, California, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California, USA, M. B. Sharifi, Department of Civil Engineering, Mashhad University, Mashhad, Iran, P. L. Sturdevant, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
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6 - Application of fuzzy theory to snowmelt runoff
pp 121-125
- By K. Mizumura, Civil Engineering Department, Kanazawa Institute of Technology, Ishikawa, Japan
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7 - On the value of fuzzy concepts in hydrology and water resources management
pp 126-132
- By J. Kindler, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, S. Tyszewski, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland
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8 - Application of neural network in groundwater remediation under conditions of uncertainty
pp 133-140
- By S. Ranjithan, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA, J. W. Eheart, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA, J. H. Garrett, Jr., Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
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9 - Application of pattern recognition to rainfall–runoff analysis
pp 141-144
- By K. Mizumura, Civil Engineering Department, Kanazawa Institute of Technology, Ishikawa, Japan
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10 - Nonparametric estimation of multivariate density and nonparametric regression
pp 145-150
- By W. Feluch, Technical University of Warsaw, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw, Poland
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11 - Nonparametric approach to design flood estimation with pre-gauging data and information
pp 151-160
- By Guo Sheng Lian, Department of Engineering Hydrology, University College Galway, Ireland, on leave from Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering, Wuhan, People's Republic of China
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IV - RANDOM FIELDS
pp 161-162
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1 - Analysis of regional drought characteristics with empirical orthogonal functions
pp 163-167
- By I. Krasovskaia, HYDROCONSVLT AB, Uppsala, Sweden, L. Gottschalk, Department of Geophysics, University of Oslo, Norway
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2 - Worth of radar data in real-time prediction of mean areal rainfall by nonadvective physically-based models
pp 168-180
- By K. P. Georgakakos, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242-1585, USA; Now: Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, California, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, California, USA, W. F. Krajewski, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242-1585, USA
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3 - Uncertainty analysis in radar-rainfall estimation
pp 181-189
- By W. F. Krajewski, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, USA, J. A. Smith, Department of Civil Engineering and Operations Research, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
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4 - Design of groundwater monitoring networks for landfills
pp 190-196
- By P. D. Meyer, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA, J. W. Eheart, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA, S. Ranjithan, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA, A. J. Valocchi, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
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5 - Spatial variability of evaporation from the land surface – random initial conditions
pp 197-205
- By R. J. Romanowicz, Institute of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK, J. C. I. Dooge, Centre for Water Resources Research, University College Dublin, Ireland, J. P. O'Kane, Centre for Water Resources Research, University College Dublin, Ireland
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New Uncertainty Concepts in Hydrology and Water Resources

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-vi

Contents
pp vii-x

List of Authors
pp xi-xii

Preface
pp xiii-xiv

I - INTRODUCTION
pp 1-2

1 - Hydrological uncertainty in perspective
pp 3-10

II - FACETS OF UNCERTAINTY
pp 11-12

1 - Bayesian relative information measure – a tool for analyzing the outputs of general circulation models
pp 13-24

2 - A stochastic weather generator using atmospheric circulation patterns and its use to evaluate climate change effects
pp 25-31

3 - Hydrological uncertainty – floods of Lake Eyre
pp 32-38

4 - Some aspects of hydrological design under non-stationarity
pp 39-44

5 - New plotting position rule for flood records considering historical data and palaeologic information
pp 45-52

III - NOVEL APPROACHES TO UNCERTAINTY: FRACTALS, FUZZY SETS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION, NON-PARAMETRIC METHODS
pp 53-54

1 - Dispersion in stratified soils with fractal permeability distribution
pp 55-60

2 - Multifractals and rain
pp 61-103

3 - Is rain fractal?
pp 104-108

4 - Multifractal structure of rainfall occurrence in West Africa
pp 109-113

5 - Analysis of high-resolution rainfall data
pp 114-120

6 - Application of fuzzy theory to snowmelt runoff
pp 121-125

7 - On the value of fuzzy concepts in hydrology and water resources management
pp 126-132

8 - Application of neural network in groundwater remediation under conditions of uncertainty
pp 133-140

9 - Application of pattern recognition to rainfall–runoff analysis
pp 141-144

10 - Nonparametric estimation of multivariate density and nonparametric regression
pp 145-150

11 - Nonparametric approach to design flood estimation with pre-gauging data and information
pp 151-160

IV - RANDOM FIELDS
pp 161-162

1 - Analysis of regional drought characteristics with empirical orthogonal functions
pp 163-167

2 - Worth of radar data in real-time prediction of mean areal rainfall by nonadvective physically-based models
pp 168-180

3 - Uncertainty analysis in radar-rainfall estimation
pp 181-189

4 - Design of groundwater monitoring networks for landfills
pp 190-196

5 - Spatial variability of evaporation from the land surface – random initial conditions
pp 197-205

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