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from Part IV - The Pollster as Spin Doctor
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 01 November 2024
In this chapter, we define a communication strategy for the 2022 Brazilian presidential election using public opinion inputs. We ask a simple question – what is the winning message?
To do this, we deploy polling results from three 2,000 interview face-to-face polls and a battery of focus groups. These are what we call a benchmark, designed to identify key message themes and other public opinion inputs. To assess the campaign in course, we will analyze about 40,900 interviews conducted during 152 days of tracking. Note that we did not work for any campaign in Brazil. But we polled for private sector clients who wanted to understand and predict the election. In that capacity, we used our polling to mimic campaign dynamics in order to assess their relative effectiveness.
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