12 - Quo Vadis Post-Communa?

Summary

An epilogue first notes that the only notable recent development not covered in the book is the slippage of democratic standards in Hungary, and less so Poland, albeit signs this may spread exist. However, this would not appear to be a transition-related dynamic, as it parallels the same trend of nationalist-populism in Europe and elsewhere. Speculating on possible future developments, it is concluded that little change is likely in the near-term. Those that have completed transition (and now EU members or candidates) are like other market democracies and their problems will be the same. The authoritarian reversal farther East that began in 2000 is unlikely to be infected by democratic inclinations of entrenched leaders, nor for that matter efforts to complete the economic transition – the status quo suits those in power very well and opposition is completely marginalized. Only Ukraine and Moldova are in a middle ground, with potential for moving closer to the EU, to more democracy, and fuller markets – but, at the same time, domestic vested interests continue to slow any movement in this direction, muddling through would seem a likely outcome.