Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of Contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21
- 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing
- 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar
- 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
- 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations
- 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia
- 8 Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness
- 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation
- 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models
- 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed
- 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems
- 13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input
- 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
- 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources
- 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method
- 17 Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
- 18 Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice
- 19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria
- 20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems
- 21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria
- 22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems
- 23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads
14 - Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 January 2010
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of Contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21
- 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing
- 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar
- 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
- 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations
- 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia
- 8 Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness
- 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation
- 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models
- 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed
- 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems
- 13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input
- 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
- 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources
- 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method
- 17 Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
- 18 Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice
- 19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria
- 20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems
- 21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria
- 22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems
- 23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads
Summary
ABSTRACT
A fuzzy compromise approach is applied to two water resources systems planning examples, for the purpose of allowing various sources of uncertainty and facilitating a flexible form of group decision support. The examples compare the ELECTRE method, and Compromise Programming, with the fuzzy approach. The fuzzy compromise approach allows a family of possible conditions to be reviewed, and supports group decisions through fuzzy sets designed to reflect collective opinions and conflicting judgments. Evaluating alternatives to produce rank orderings are accomplished with two ranking measures for fuzzy sets. The ranking measures are also shown to indicate the impact of different levels of decision-maker risk aversion. Two distinct ranking measures are used – a centroid measure and a fuzzy comparison measure based on a fuzzy goal.
INTRODUCTION
Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been moving from optimization methods to more interactive decision support tools. Some areas of interest have been identified by Dyer et al. (1992) as:
Sensitivity analysis and the incorporation of vague or imprecise judgements of preferences. Development of improved interactive software for multicriterion decision support systems.
Uncertainty is a source of complexity in decision making that can be found in many forms. Typical ones include uncertainty in model assumptions and uncertainty in data or parameter values. There may also be uncertainty in the interpretation of results. While some uncertainties can be modeled as stochastic variables in a Monte Carlo simulation, for example, other forms of uncertainty may simply be vague or imprecise.
Traditional techniques for evaluating discrete alternatives such as ELECTRE (Benayoun, Roy, and Sussmann 1966), AHP (Saaty 1980), Compromise Programming (Zeleny 1973, 1982), and others normally do not consider uncertainties involved in procuring criteria values.
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- Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2002
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