Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of Contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21
- 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing
- 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar
- 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
- 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations
- 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia
- 8 Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness
- 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation
- 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models
- 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed
- 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems
- 13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input
- 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
- 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources
- 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method
- 17 Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
- 18 Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice
- 19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria
- 20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems
- 21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria
- 22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems
- 23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads
15 - System and component uncertainties in water resources
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 January 2010
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of Contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21
- 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing
- 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar
- 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
- 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations
- 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia
- 8 Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness
- 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation
- 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models
- 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed
- 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems
- 13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input
- 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
- 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources
- 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method
- 17 Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
- 18 Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice
- 19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria
- 20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems
- 21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria
- 22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems
- 23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads
Summary
ABSTRACT
Management of water resources is inherently subject to uncertainties due to data inadequacy and errors, modeling inaccuracy, randomness of natural phenomena, and operational variability. Uncertainties are associated with each of the contributing factors or components of a water resources system and with the system as a whole. Uncertainty can be measured in terms of the probability density function, confidence interval, or statistical moments such as standard deviation or coefficient of variation. In this chapter, available methods for uncertainty analysis are briefly reviewed.
INTRODUCTION
The planning, design, and operation of water resources systems usually involve many components or contributing factors. Each of the components or factors individually and the system as a whole are always subject to uncertainties. For example, the reliability of flood forecast depends not only on the uncertainty of the prediction model itself but also on the uncertainties on the input data. The design of a storm drain is subject to the uncertainty on the runoff simulation model used, uncertainties on the design storm determination, as well as uncertainties on the materials, construction, and maintenance used. Water supply is always subject to uncertainties on the demand, availability of the sources of water, and the performance of the distribution network. Safety of a dam depends not only on the magnitude of the flood but also on the waves, earthquake, conditions of the foundation, and maintenance and appropriateness of the operational procedure. Numerous other examples can be cited. In short, decisions on water resources are always subject to uncertainties.
Knowledge of uncertainties is useful for rational decision making, for cost-effective design, for safe operation, and for improved public awareness of water resources risks and reliability.
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- Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2002
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