7 - Where Should Cuba Head to?

Summary

In this book, I have analyzed the current conditions regarding law and order in Cuba and have identified specific dangers to public security as this nation liberalizes its economy and (perhaps eventually) democratizes its politics.

A focus of my research has been Cuba's peculiar combination of reasonably good public security with widespread illegality in all aspects of business and daily life. My main concern – based on theory and empirical evidence – is that crime and violence would worsen as Cuba liberalizes, and that illegality would remain the norm.

Cubans are proud of the public security in their territory, and they are eager to compare it to more violent neighboring countries such as Mexico and Colombia, or cities like Miami. At the same time, the many illicit actions which take place on the island daily are justified by Cubans, basing them on need and economically irrational regulation. This circumstance somehow allows the current regime to publicly ignore the issue without consequences.

Outwardly, it would seem that Cuba's crime issues are minor, and that corruption and illegality are just a temporary illness that can fade away as economic conditions improve and the Cuban state gradually rationalizes regulation.

Yet the future of Cuba's public security is not actually as promising. Cuba's high levels of corruption, a culture of illegality, multiple illicit markets, an economy based almost entirely on political premises, and acute economic scarcity place this nation in grave danger of an escalation in crime and violence.

In this final chapter, I analyze the implications of my findings. I give specific policy prescriptions that would allow Cuba a safer transition, in which a new regime – headed by the same coalition that is currently in power or a new one – could be established, resulting in a higher level of well-being for citizens. At the very least, two outcomes need to be avoided during the liberal transition: the entrenchment of a corrupt state, and the infiltration of criminal organizations into Cuban territory.

The key challenge that Cuba will face is a variation of Madison's dilemma: how to dismantle the authoritarian state while at the same time structuring a sufficiently strong state that would enforce order, but not so strong as to violate its citizens’ rights.