12 - Conclusions for Theory and Policy

Summary

In this concluding chapter of the book, we summarize what we have found in the previous chapters and discuss the theoretical significance and limitations of our findings. Furthermore, based on these reflections, we provide some recommendations for policy making. In the first section we return to our master hypotheses that we introduced in Chapter 3. Most importantly, we conclude that there is robust evidence that both governmental and territorial power-sharing practices tend, on average, to reduce conflict compared to situations characterized by their absence (see Master Hypotheses 1a and 1b respectively). We summarize the findings pertaining to the other Master Hypotheses as well. The discussion on the limitations of our findings focuses primarily on implications of power sharing on other outcomes than peace and conflict, such as democracy and economic development, but also some of the simplifying assumptions that have supported our analysis, such as the unity of ethnic groups. Finally, the discussion of policy implications reminds the reader that our results are probabilistic rather than deterministic. Still our analysis sheds light on why critics of power sharing may have overstated their case. For instance, failure to consider implementation difficulties could render power sharing ineffective or even counter-productive. In particular, such practices may be particularly effective before the first outbreak of violence, which confirms the importance of conflict reduction through preventive measures, rather than merely through conflict resolution once conflict has already erupted.