Indonesia: Towards the Final Countdown?

Summary

Among the Southeast Asian countries today, Indonesia, with an ageing New Order regime and widespread uncertainties, appears to be closest to its time of major change. This has been made possible by the unwitting consequences of the New Order's success in achieving its original goal of restoring order, developing the nation economically, and maintaining stability through depoliticisation. Major events of the past year have accentuated further the general patterns that began in 1990. In some areas, these trends have accelerated. They all point towards a developing crisis in the New Order government's legitimacy that prompts serious questions about the ultimate outcome. Are we going to witness a new historical transformation of the fourth most populous country in the world? Or, will the New Order regime survive the crisis and reassert its hegemony, without significant changes of the system?

It is hard to predict which scenario will ultimately become reality. The difficulty of making predictions stems partly from the fact that open political contestation has been declared illegal, thus forcing all sorts of political activities to take place behind the scenes. Under such circumstances most political bodies and individuals will not expose their true position, unless their hand is forced.

The following is an account of the major events that have taken place in 1996. It explores the probable connections among these events, and considers their significance in the light of bigger questions pertaining to social transformation. Before this is done, a general framework and comment on the overall situation is provided.

Collaboration: The Basis of Hegemony

The New Order is one of the longest-lasting regimes in the world today. A study of its present crisis requires some consideration of its formation and what solidified it for more than a quarter of a century. While a thorough analysis of these issues lies beyond the scope of the present discussion, suffice to say that the regime's longevity has been made possible by complex mechanisms of collaboration by those formally designated as non-governmental agents.