Cambodia: The Endgame of Politics?

Summary

The passage of 13 years since the first post-UNTAC (United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia) elections were held in Cambodia, in 1993, gives emphasis to the single most important feature of the country's domestic politics — the definitive rise of Hun Sen to be Cambodia's most powerful leader. When (in December 2002), he boldly stated that he would like to rule as prime minister for a further ten years, his statement was taken by some observers to be a pre-emptive challenge to members of his own Cambodian People's Party (CPP), as much as a reflection of his longer-term plans and hopes for his role in Cambodian political life. And in the complex manoeuvring that took place after the 2003 elections, some questioned whether Hun Sen could prevail as the CPP's parliamentary leader since there was evidence of dissension within the upper echelons of the party. Then it was widely believed that the party president, Chea Sim, was opposed to Hun Sen's continuing dominance. But events since that time have made clear that Hun Sen both wishes to retain power and remains ready to act decisively to ensure that he does so.

Developments in October 2006, which saw FUNCINPEC (Front Uni National Pour Un Cambodge Indépendant, Neutre et Coopératif) dismiss Prince Norodom Ranariddh from his leadership of the party, need to be seen in the wider context of Hun Sen's control of the country's political agenda. In the case of Ranariddh's dismissal, what has transpired may very well be the endgame of Cambodian politics in which Hun Sen has neutered his most potentially dangerous opponent. At the same time, Ranariddh's dismissal can also be seen as part of the steadily diminishing capacity of members of the Cambodian royal family to play a determining role in the country's domestic politics.

These judgments are made against the broader background of the Cambodian government's having weathered a range of criticism from various bodies, including UN officials and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and in particular vocal domestic opposition during 2005 to the border agreements concluded with Vietnam.