Introduction

Summary

Southeast Asia in 2013 remained resilient in the face of economic, political, and security challenges. It maintained an estimated economic growth rate of 5.2 per cent, slightly below the 5.4 per cent achieved in 2012, despite slower growth in China and India and only nascent recoveries in Europe and the United States, which did not do much to change subdued external demand for Southeast Asian economies. There was considerable diversity in performance and challenges faced at the country level, as Sanchita Basu Das elaborates in her chapter “Southeast Asian Economies: Waiting for a Rebound” in this volume. Economic growth is expected to pick up in 2014.

Geopolitics drew more attention. The East China Sea tensions escalated and Sino-Japanese relations continued to deteriorate. On the South China Sea, there were some signs of flexibility on the part of China on multilateral discussions with ASEAN on a Code of Conduct but otherwise the situation remained unchanged. Major power engagements with Southeast Asia increased further during the year because of the perceived importance of the region to their interests, which was, on balance, a plus for the region and for ASEAN. In domestic politics, the situation in Thailand caused particular unease.

This Introduction attempts to bring together some of the salient themes in this volume, while recognizing that they are not exhaustive and will not do justice to all the authors. The four themes selected are: enhanced major power engagement; ASEAN developments; political stability and change; and internal violence manifested in insurgencies and terrorism.

Enhanced Major Power Engagement

The increased tempo of major power engagement with Southeast Asia and ASEAN is highlighted both by Joseph Liow/Rajni Gamage and Malcom Cook in their respective chapters. China's engagement continued at a high level, including visits by President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang to several countries, with offers to boost investments, trade, and connectivity. The United States continued to build on its strategy of “re-balance” to the region militarily, diplomatically and economically, even though President Obama had to miss a cluster of high level meetings including the US-ASEAN Summit and the East Asian Summit (EAS) because of pressing domestic concerns.