1 - Why Taiwan matters

Summary

There is a possibility that the next great military conflict could be fought over Taiwan. As we write this book, the likelihood of militarized conflict involving the United States and the PRC is higher than it has been for many decades. The sense of heightened “tensions” and looming conflict in the Taiwan Strait1 has become global news broadcasts. Some readers’ interest in Taiwan may have been prompted by news coverage of House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in August 2022 and the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) live-fire military exercises that immediately followed it, or from commentators and some elected officials comparing the situation in Taiwan to Russia's invasion and war against Ukraine. But the situation in the Taiwan Strait is complex, nuanced and defies simple analogies. Peace in the Taiwan Strait is a product not just of Taiwan's own actions, but those of the PRC and the US. The preferences and actions of China and the US, and the conduct of relations between these two superpowers, have an inescapable impact on Taiwanese security, prosperity, and even Taiwan's continued existence as an autonomous polity and society. A militarized superpower conflict would be devastating for the people who call Taiwan home. It would destroy peace in the Asian region, fundamentally alter the global order and wreak havoc on the global economy. While the dire consequences of a hypothetical war are largely agreed on – including in the PRC – there is much more to the Taiwan story than conflict.

Taiwan is home to almost 24 million people, living in a hard-won liberal democratic society. Taiwan's diverse peoples – Indigenous Austronesian Taiwanese, transnational Hakka, immigrants from all over Southeast Asia, and different generations of Han Chinese – constitute a unique hybrid culture and society. Taiwan has been shaped by numerous colonizing powers and persevered through Kuomintang (KMT) one-party authoritarian rule to become one of the most economically vibrant and progressive societies in Asia.