VIII - Conclusion: Into the Future

Summary

Most people seemed pleased with the results of the September election that has installed probably one of the most democratic governments in Thai political history. For the pro-democracy people, it was something they were fighting for during May. At least, some of their hopes have been fulfilled. But given the ups and downs in Thai politics, one important question remains: “How long will this euphoria last?”

When one looks at the present situation in Thailand, one gets the impression that things are developing very fast, like the growth of the various groups to check the government and politicians. But a similar phenomenon had also occurred before, after the student uprising against the military dictatorship in 1973. And that sort of growth in public awareness and democracy did not last very long then. It was interrupted by the coup in 1976 — an interval of hardly two years of democracy. One would then put some doubts about a sustenance of the present democratic euphoria. If the brief period of democratic overture between 1973 and 1976 was interrupted by the 1976 coup, and the “fully fledged” democracy of 1988-91 by the 1991 coup, why should another coup not interrupt the present democratic cycle? This is not wishful thinking, for while political institutions and politicians remain unstable and, to some extent, unprincipled, the military continues to be relatively united and strong.

To this, one can only be reasonably optimistic that things would be better than in the past. One could only say that although the military is still dominant in Thai politics, the dynamics that have taken place since the 1980s have been very well in place, particularly when these dynamics are also a response to changes in the world political economic order. A “new world order” in which there have been more calls for greater democracy and human rights protection also had a great impact on Thailand. Although there was a coup in 1991 and a military suppression in 1992, the result was a stronger democracy.