Chapter 5 - Catastrophic Terrorism and its Potential Impact on Global Trade

Summary

A nuclear 9/11 would make the World Trade Center attacks look like a warning shot. It would be impossible to calculate the economic costs, because there is no way to calculate how long it would take for citizens to recover the confidence they need to spend and invest. The public would assume that if the terrorists had one nuclear weapon, they could get another. If they would use it in one city, they would use it in another. If even one goes off, it's hard to see how we could recover. We have to prevent if from happening — ever.

Former US Senator and arms control expert, Sam Nunn, who cochairs the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

The use of either a nuclear or powerful radiological bomb in a major port-city would cut the arteries of maritime commerce if it was believed to have come by sea. It would halt much of the world's trade and severely damage the global economy, as governments scrambled to put in place extra security measures to protect their people, cities and economies. Such measures would be drastic and include: lengthy cargo inspections in the ports of the affected country, as well as in ports of nations that did extensive sea trade with it, or even the complete closure of ports for an indefinite period, while extra checks and safeguards were put in place to allay public anxiety.

One of the first things the US government did after the terrorist attacks in September 2001, was to shut US airspace and ground all civilian flights for four days — a security measure to protect the American public that had severe repercussions on aviation, travel, tourism and business around the world, including in Asia, as hundreds of scheduled flights had to be cancelled or diverted. The Bush administration also closed US ports for two days.

Costs of a Terrorist Attack

How much would a major terrorist attack on shipping or maritime infrastructure cost and what impact would it have on just-in-time delivery for companies? Since such an attack has not happened, no one knows the precise answers to these questions. They would, of course, depend on the severity of the attack, the extent of casualties and damage, and the nature of public and government reaction to them.