Published online by Cambridge University Press: 31 July 2009
It is often suggested that changes in the population biology of higher predators can be used as proxies for other processes within marine ecosystems, such as changes in the size of prey populations. However, such predators are almost always generalists, which are likely to respond to changes in the abundances of more than one prey species. Using data from a terrestrial generalist predator, we show that the form of the relationship between energy intake and the abundance of a focal prey species can vary greatly depending on the abundance of alternative prey, and that such proxies may have insufficient statistical power to detect even substantial changes in prey abundance. We then consider whether alternative approaches to analysing the data collected by higher-predator monitoring schemes might provide more reliable information on ecosystem processes.
An increasing number of nations and intergovernmental organizations have accepted the principle that the exploitation of living resources should be conducted using an ecosystem-based approach (e.g. the 1996 amendment to the US Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act or the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement (United Nations 1995), see also Aqorau (2003)). The objectives of such an approach are rarely clearly defined, but they usually involve ensuring that the ‘health’ or ‘integrity’ of an ecosystem is maintained. For example, the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement states that one aim of fisheries management is to ‘maintain the integrity of marine ecosystems and minimize the risk of long-term or irreversible effects of fishing operations’ (United Nations 1995).
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