Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- List of contributors
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Introduction: an interdisciplinary approach to Water, Life and Civilisation
- Part I Past, present and future climate
- Part II The palaeoenvironmental record
- Part III Hydrological studies of the Jordan Valley
- Part IV Human settlement, climate change, hydrology and water management
- 14 The archaeology of water management in the Jordan Valley from the Epipalaeolithic to the Nabataean, 21,000 BP (19,000 BC) to AD 106
- 15 From global climate change to local impact in Wadi Faynan, southern Jordan: ten millennia of human settlement in its hydrological context
- 16 Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction at Beidha, southern Jordan (c. 18,000–8,500 BP): Implications for human occupation during the Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic
- 17 The influence of water on Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age settlement patterns in the southern Levant
- 18 Modelling water resources and climate change at the Bronze Age site of Jawa in northern Jordan: a new approach utilising stochastic simulation techniques
- 19 A millennium of rainfall, settlement and water management at Humayma, southern Jordan, c. 2,050–1,150 BP (100 BC to AD 800)
- Part V Palaeoeconomies and developing archaeological methodologies
- Part VI Society, economy and water today
- Part VII Conclusions
- Index
- Plate section
- References
18 - Modelling water resources and climate change at the Bronze Age site of Jawa in northern Jordan: a new approach utilising stochastic simulation techniques
from Part IV - Human settlement, climate change, hydrology and water management
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 April 2011
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- List of contributors
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Introduction: an interdisciplinary approach to Water, Life and Civilisation
- Part I Past, present and future climate
- Part II The palaeoenvironmental record
- Part III Hydrological studies of the Jordan Valley
- Part IV Human settlement, climate change, hydrology and water management
- 14 The archaeology of water management in the Jordan Valley from the Epipalaeolithic to the Nabataean, 21,000 BP (19,000 BC) to AD 106
- 15 From global climate change to local impact in Wadi Faynan, southern Jordan: ten millennia of human settlement in its hydrological context
- 16 Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction at Beidha, southern Jordan (c. 18,000–8,500 BP): Implications for human occupation during the Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic
- 17 The influence of water on Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age settlement patterns in the southern Levant
- 18 Modelling water resources and climate change at the Bronze Age site of Jawa in northern Jordan: a new approach utilising stochastic simulation techniques
- 19 A millennium of rainfall, settlement and water management at Humayma, southern Jordan, c. 2,050–1,150 BP (100 BC to AD 800)
- Part V Palaeoeconomies and developing archaeological methodologies
- Part VI Society, economy and water today
- Part VII Conclusions
- Index
- Plate section
- References
Summary
ABSTRACT
Water in arid zones is at a premium, and this applied to past populations living on scarce water resources as it does today. An annual water balance model for Wadi Rajil, in northern Jordan, is used to simulate the ancient water supply system for the Early Bronze Age site of Jawa. The model includes water delivery from the catchment, local pond storage, and water demand for people, animals and irrigation. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with a range of factors including rainfall, evaporation, water losses and use. The stochastic simulation provides estimates of population levels sustainable by the water supply system. Past rainfall estimates from a global circulation model (GCM), with uncertainty bounds, are used to reconstruct the climate at Jawa in the Early Bronze Age (EBA). Model results indicate that the population levels in the predicted wetter conditions in the EBA could have risen to ~6,000 and may have been higher in wet years. Pond storage sustained the population during drought years. The GCM results suggest that prolonged droughts occurred in the later Bronze Age during which the water management system was unable to provide adequate supply for a population of 6,000. The utility of Monte Carlo based hydrological modelling as a tool within archaeological science is discussed.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Water, Life and CivilisationClimate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley, pp. 289 - 301Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2011
References
, , , and (2003) Sea-land oxygen isotopic relationships from planktonic foraminifera and speleothems in the Eastern Mediterranean region and their implication for paleorainfall during interglacial intervals. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 67: 3181–3199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1991a) Appendix A: The Jawa area in prehistory. In Excavations at Jawa 1972–1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds, ed. . Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press pp. 181–190.Google Scholar
, ed. (1991b) Excavations at Jawa 1972–1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.
(1991c) The chipped stone assemblage. In Excavations at Jawa 1972–1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds, ed. . Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press pp. 140–144.Google Scholar
(1992) Tell el-Hibr: a rock shelter occupation of the fourth millennium B.C.E. Jordanian Badiya Bulletin of the American Schools of Oriental Research 289: 5–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , et al. (1996) Studies of Bronze Age occupation in the Wadi al-'Ajib, Southern Hauran. Levant 28: 27–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (1991) The Burqu/Ruweishid project: preliminary report on the 1989 field season. Levant 23: 7–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2000) A summary statement on the EBA ceramics from southern Syria and the relationship of this material with that of neighbouring regions. In Ceramics and Change in the Early Bronze Age of the Southern Levant, ed. and . Sheffield: Sheffield Academic Press pp. 403–410.Google Scholar
, and (2004) Khirbet al Umbashi. Villages et Campments de Pasteurs dans le ‘Desert Noir’(Syrie) à l'âge du Bronze. Beyrouth: Institut Français du Proche-Orient.Google Scholar
and (2003) Tales of the city? ‘Urbanism’ in the early Bronze Age Levant from Mediterranean and Levantine perspectives. Journal of Mediterranean Archaeology 16/1: 3–16.Google Scholar
and (2000) The main aspects of the Early Bronze I Pottery from Jebel Abu Thawwab, North Jordan. In Ceramics and Change in the Early Bronze Age of the Southern Levant, ed. and . Sheffield: Sheffield Academic Press pp. 101–112.Google Scholar
, and (1971) The Negev, Challenge of a Desert. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
, , and (2001) Radiocarbon chronology of the Holocene Dead Sea: attempting a regional correlation. Radiocarbon 43: 1179–1189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1988) Mid-Holocene rainfall in the Negev Desert from 13C of land snail shell organic matter. Nature 333: 757–760.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1989) Desert urbanism in the fourth millennium. Palestine Exploration Quarterly: 55–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1978) Demographic archaeology. In Advances in Archaeological Method and Theory, ed. . New York: Academic Press pp. 49–103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2002) Antarctic climate during the middle Pliocene: model sensitivity to ice sheet variation. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 182: 93–115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1987) Jawa, Tell Um Hammad and the EB 1/Late Chalcolithic landscape. Levant 29: 49–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1991a) Introduction. In Excavations at Jawa 1972–1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds, ed. . Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press pp. 6–19.Google Scholar
(1991b) The pottery. In Excavations at Jawa 1972–1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds, ed. . Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press pp. 55–105.Google Scholar
(1992) The ‘Zarqa Triangle’: A Preliminary Appraisal of Protohistorical Settlement Patterns and Demographic Episodes. Amman: SHAJ IV.Google Scholar
and (1987) Desert kites of the Badiyat esh-Sham and North Arabia. Paleorient 13: 41–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, and (1990) Computation of the instantaneous unit hydrograph and identifiable component flows with application to two upland catchments. Journal of Hydrology 117: 275–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1981) Appendix E. Animal remains. In Jawa: Lost City of the Black Desert, ed. . New York: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
and (1991) Limitations on sheep and goat herding in the Eastern Badia of Jordan: an ethno-archaeological enquiry. Levant 28: 125–138.Google Scholar
(1995) Jawa and Tell Um Hammad: two early Bronze Age sites in Jordan. Review article. Palestine Exploration Quarterly 127: 161–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2001) The Early Bronze I–III ages. In The Archaeology of Jordan, ed. , and . Sheffield: Sheffield University Press pp. 163–232.Google Scholar
, , and (2000) The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dynamics 16: 123–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1995) The social response to environmental change in Early Bronze Age Canaan. Journal of Anthropological Archaeology 14: 26–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2006) Mesozoic climates: general circulation models and the rock record. Sedimentary Geology 190: 269–287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , et al. (2005) KINEROS 2 and the AGWA modelling framework. In Hydrological Modelling in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas, eds. , and . Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, pp. 41–48.Google Scholar
and (2001) Ancient irrigation works in the Sanchi area: an archaeological and hydrological investigation. South Asian Studies 17: 55–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1976) Subsistence ecology of the central Kalahari San In Kalahari Hunter-Gatherers. Studies of the!Kung San and Their Neighbours, ed. and . Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press pp. 98–119.Google Scholar
(1991) The microwear analysis of scrapers and ‘sickle blades’. In Excavations at Jawa 1972–1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds, ed. . Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press pp. 149–154.Google Scholar
, , and (1999) Understanding Past Climates: Modelling Ancient Weather (CD-ROM).
, ed. (1985) Best and Taylor's Physiological Basis of Medical Practice, 11th Edition. Baltimore: Williams and Wilkins.
(2005) Modelling hydrological processes in arid and semi-arid areas. In Proceedings of the International G-WADI Modelling Workshopshttp://www.gwadi.org
and (1979) Water quality in river systems: Monte Carlo analysis. Water Resources Research 15: 451–459.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1981) Appendix D. Plant remains. In Jawa: Lost City of the Black Desert, ed. . New York: Cornell University Press pp. 247–248.Google Scholar
(1974) Ancient Jerusalem: its water supply and population. Palestine Exploration Quarterly 106: 33–51.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, and (1990) KINEROS. A Kinematic Runoff and Erosion Model: Documentation and User Manual. ARS-77. Washington, DC: US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service.Google Scholar
(2005) Real time flow forecasting. In Proceedings of the International G-WADI Modelling Workshophttp://www.gwadi.org
(1994) Estimating the population size of ancient settlements: methods, problems, solutions and a case study. Bulletin of the American Schools of Oriental Research 295: 31–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 3
- Cited by