In many system designs, it is a challenging task for system designers to predict the system reliability due to limited information about component designs, which is often proprietary to component suppliers. This research addresses this issue by considering the following situation: all the components share the same system load, and system designers know component reliabilities with respect to the component load, but do not know other information, such as component limit-state functions. The strategy is to reconstruct the equivalent component limit-state functions during the system design stage such that they can accurately reproduce component reliabilities. Because the system load is a common factor shared by all the reconstructed component limit-state functions, the component dependence can be captured implicitly. As a result, more accurate system reliability can be produced compared with traditional methods. An engineering example demonstrates the feasibility of the new system reliability method.

Methods for efficient variance-based global sensitivity analysis of complex high-dimensional problems are presented and compared. Variance decomposition methods rank inputs according to Sobol indices that can be computationally expensive to evaluate. Main and interaction effect Sobol indices can be computed analytically in the Kennedy and O'Hagan framework with Gaussian processes. These methods use the high-dimensional model representation concept for variance decomposition that presents a unique model representation when inputs are uncorrelated. However, when the inputs are correlated, multiple model representations may be possible leading to ambiguous sensitivity ranking with Sobol indices. In this work, we present the effect of input correlation on sensitivity analysis and discuss the methods presented by Li and Rabitz in the context of Kennedy and O'Hagan's framework with Gaussian processes. Results are demonstrated on simulated and real problems for correlated and uncorrelated inputs and demonstrate the utility of variance decomposition methods for sensitivity analysis.

As a measure to manage the climate impact of aviation, significant enhancements to aviation technologies and operations are necessary. When assessing these enhancements and their respective impacts on the climate, it is important that we also quantify the associated uncertainties. This is important to support an effective decision and policymaking process. However, such quantification of uncertainty is challenging, especially in a complex system that comprises multiple interacting components. The uncertainty quantification task can quickly become computationally intractable and cumbersome for one individual or group to manage. Recognizing the challenge of quantifying uncertainty in multicomponent systems, we utilize a divide-and-conquer approach, inspired by the decomposition-based approaches used in multidisciplinary analysis and optimization. Specifically, we perform uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis of our multicomponent aviation system in a decomposition-based manner. In this work, we demonstrate how to handle a high-dimensional multicomponent interface using sensitivity-based dimension reduction and a novel importance sampling method. Our results demonstrate that the decomposition-based uncertainty quantification approach can effectively quantify the uncertainty of a feed-forward multicomponent system for which the component models are housed in different locations and owned by different groups.

A new method is proposed for efficient optimization under uncertainty that addresses the curse of dimensionality as it pertains to the evaluation of probabilistic objectives and constraints. A basis adaptation strategy previously introduced by the authors is integrated into a design optimization framework that construes the optimization cost function as the quantity of interest and computes stochastic adapted bases as functions of design space parameters. With these adapted bases, the stochastic integrations at each design point are evaluated as low-dimensional integrals (mostly one dimensional). The proposed approach is demonstrated on a well-placement problem where the uncertainty is in the form of a stochastic process describing the permeability of the subsurface. An analysis of the method is carried out to better understand the effect of design parameters on the smoothness of the adaptation isometry.

Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in finding an optimal design of a structure under uncertainty. Quantifying relative importance of random parameters, which leads to a rank ordering, helps in developing a systematic and efficient way to reach the optimal design. In this work, lift prediction and sensitivity analysis of a potential flow around a submerged body is considered. Such flow is often used in the initial design stage of structures. The flow computation is carried out using a vortex-panel method. A few parameters of the submerged body and flow are considered as random variables. To improve the accuracy in lift prediction in a computationally efficient way, a new semi-intrusive stochastic perturbation method is proposed. Accordingly, a perturbation is applied at the linear system solving level involving the inuence coefficient matrix, as opposed to using perturbation in the lift quantity itself. This proposed method, which is partially analogous to the intrusive or Galerkin projection methods in spectral stochastic finite element methods, is found to be more accurate than using perturbation directly on the lift and faster than a direct simulation. The proposed semi-intrusive stochastic perturbation method is found to yield faster estimates of the Sobol’ indices, which are used for global sensitivity analysis. From global sensitivity analysis, the flow parameters are found to be more important than the parameters of the submerged body.

This paper proposes a method to compare the performances of different methods for robust design optimization of computationally demanding models. Its intended usage is to help the engineer to choose the optimization approach when faced with a robust optimization problem. This paper demonstrates the usage of the method to find the most appropriate robust design optimization method to solve an engineering problem. Five robust design optimization methods, including a novel method, are compared in the demonstration of the comparison method. Four of the five compared methods involve surrogate models to reduce the computational cost of performing robust design optimization. The five methods are used to optimize several mathematical functions that should be similar to the engineering problem. The methods are then used to optimize the engineering problem to confirm that the most suitable optimization method was identified. The performance metrics used are the mean value and standard deviation of the robust optimum as well as an index that combines the required number of simulations of the original model with the accuracy of the obtained solution. These measures represent the accuracy, robustness, and efficiency of the compared methods. The results of the comparison show that sequential robust optimization is the method with the best balance between accuracy and number of function evaluations. This is confirmed by the optimizations of the engineering problem. The comparison also shows that the novel method is better than its predecessor is.

This study deals with both a decision model for making decisions under epistemic uncertainty and how to use it for selecting optimal materials under the same uncertainty. In particular, the proposed decision model employs a set of possibilistic objective functions defined by fuzzy numbers to handle a set of conflicting criteria. In addition, the model can calculate the compliance of a piece of decision-relevant (imprecise) information with a given objective function. Moreover, the model is capable to aggregate the calculated compliances for the sake of ranking a given set of alternatives against the set of conflicting criteria. The problem of selecting materials for making the body of a vehicle is considered as an example. In this problem, the indices for selecting the materials are unknown because the specifications regarding the vehicle body are not given. In addition, the data relevant to material properties entails a great deal of imprecision. The presented decision model can quantify the above-mentioned epistemic uncertainty in a lucid manner and generate a list of optimal materials.

An engineering service project can be highly interactive, collaborative, and distributed. The implementation of such projects needs to generate, utilize, and share large amounts of data and heterogeneous digital objects. The information overload prevents the effective reuse of project data and knowledge, and makes the understanding of project characteristics difficult. Toward solving these issues, this paper emphasized the using of data mining and machine learning techniques to improve the project characteristic understanding process. The work presented in this paper proposed an automatic model and some analytical approaches for learning and predicting the characteristics of engineering service projects. To evaluate the model and demonstrate its functionalities, an industrial data set from the aerospace sector is considered as a the case study. This work shows that the proposed model could enable the project members to gain comprehensive understanding of project characteristics from a multidimensional perspective, and it has the potential to support them in implementing evidence-based design and decision making.

Several industrial systems are characterized by high nonlinearities with wide operating ranges and large set point changes. Identification and representation of these systems represent a challenge, especially for control engineers. Multimodel technique is one effective approach that can be used to describe nonlinear systems through the combination of several submodels, where each is contributing to the output with a certain degree of validity. One major concern in this technique, especially for systems with unknown operating conditions, is the partitioning of the system's operating space and thus the identification of different submodels. This paper proposes a three-stage approach to obtain a multimodel representation of a nonlinear system. A reinforced combinatorial particle swarm optimization and hybrid K-means are used to determine the number of submodels and their respective parameters. The proposed method automatically optimizes the number of submodels with respect to the submodel complexity. This allows operating space partition and generation of a parsimonious number of submodels without prior knowledge. The application of this approach on several examples, including a continuous stirred tank reactor, demonstrates its effectiveness.

A function-based keyword search is a concept generation methodology studied in the bioinspired design area that conveys textual biological inspiration for engineering design. Current keyword search methods are inefficient primarily due to the knowledge gap between engineering and biology domains. To improve current keyword search methods, we propose an algorithm that extracts and organizes morphology-based solutions from biological text. WordNet is utilized to discover morphological solutions in biological text. The novel algorithm also adapts latent semantic analysis and the expectation–maximization algorithm to categorize morphological solutions and group biological text. We introduce a novel penalty function that reflects the distance between functions (problems) and morphologies (solutions). The penalty function allows the algorithm to extract morphological solutions directly related to a design problem. We compare the output of the algorithm to manually extracted solutions for validation. A case study is included to exemplify the utility of the developed algorithm. Upon implementation of the algorithm, engineering designers can discover innovative solutions in biological text in a straightforward, efficient manner.

Primary among all the activities involved in conceptual design is freehand sketching. There have been significant efforts in recent years to enable digital design methods that leverage humans’ sketching skills. Conventional sketch-based digital interfaces are built on two-dimensional touch-based devices like sketchers and drawing pads. The transition from two-dimensional to three-dimensional (3-D) digital sketch interfaces represents the latest trend in developing new interfaces that embody intuitiveness and human–human interaction characteristics. In this paper, we outline a novel screenless 3-D sketching system. The system uses a noncontact depth-sensing RGB-D camera for user input. Only depth information (no RGB information) is used in the framework. The system tracks the user's palm during the sketching process and converts the data into a 3-D sketch. As the generated data is noisy, making sense of what is sketched is facilitated through a beautification process that is suited to 3-D sketches. To evaluate the performance of the system and the beautification scheme, user studies were performed on multiple participants for both single-stroke and multistroke sketching scenarios.