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Population viability analysis on a native Danish cattle breed

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 October 2016

Morten Hertz ,
Iben Ravnborg Jensen ,
Laura Østergaard Jensen ,
Iben Vejrum Nielsen ,
Jacob Winde ,
Astrid Vik Stronen ,
Torsten Nygaard Kristensen  and
Cino Pertoldi
Morten Hertz
Affiliation:
Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
Iben Ravnborg Jensen*
Affiliation:
Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
Laura Østergaard Jensen
Affiliation:
Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
Iben Vejrum Nielsen
Affiliation:
Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
Jacob Winde
Affiliation:
Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
Astrid Vik Stronen
Affiliation:
Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
Torsten Nygaard Kristensen
Affiliation:
Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
Cino Pertoldi
Affiliation:
Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark Aalborg Zoo, Aalborg, Denmark
*
Correspondence to: Iben Ravnborg Jensen, Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark. email: ibenravnborg@gmail.com
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Summary

Many domestic breeds face challenges concerning genetic variability, because of their small population sizes along with a high risk of inbreeding. Therefore, it is important to obtain knowledge on their extinction risk, along with the possible benefits of certain breeding strategies. Since many domestic breeds face the same problems, results from such studies can be applied across breeds and species. Here a Population Viability Analysis (PVA) was implemented to simulate the future probability of extinction for a population of the endangered Danish Jutland cattle (Bos taurus), based on the software Vortex. A PVA evaluates the extinction risk of a population by including threats and demographic values. According to the results from the PVA the population will go extinct after 122 years with the current management. Four scenarios were created to investigate which changes in the breeding scheme would have the largest effect on the survival probabilities, including Scenario 1: More females in the breeding pool, scenario 2: More males in the breeding pool, scenario 3: Increased carrying capacity, and scenario 4: Supplementing males to the population through artificial insemination using semen from bulls used in the populations in past generations. All scenarios showed a positive effect on the population's probability of survival, and with a combination of the different scenarios, the population size seems to be stabilized.

Résumé

De nombreuses races domestiques font face à des défis liés à la variabilité génétique en raison de leur petite taille de population qui s'accompagne d'un risque élevé de consanguinité. Par conséquent, il s'avère important de connaître leur risque d'extinction, ainsi que les avantages potentiels de certaines stratégies de sélection. Vu que beaucoup de races domestiques confrontent les mêmes problèmes, les résultats de ces études peuvent être appliqués sans distinction de race ou d'espèce. Ici une Analyse de Viabilité des Populations (AVP) a été menée pour simuler, en utilisant le logiciel Vortex, la probabilité future d'extinction d'une population de bovins menacés: les bovins danois du Jutland (Bos taurus). Une AVP évalue le risque d'extinction d'une population en tenant compte des menaces et des données démographiques. D'après les résultats de l'AVP, la population s'éteindra après 122 ans avec la gestion actuelle. Quatre scénarios ont été présentés pour examiner quels changements dans le schéma de sélection auraient le plus grand effet sur les probabilités de survie, y compris le scénario 1: Plus de femelles dans le pool de reproducteurs, le scénario 2: Plus de mâles dans le pool de reproducteurs, le scénario 3: Une plus grande capacité porteuse et le scénario 4: Fournir des mâles à la population par le biais de l'insémination artificielle avec du sperme de taureaux utilisés dans les populations dans les générations passées. Tous les scénarios ont présenté un effet positif sur la probabilité de survie de la population et, avec une combinaison des différents scénarios, la taille de la population semble se stabiliser.

Resumen

Muchas razas domésticas se enfrentan a desafíos relacionados con la variabilidad genética, debido a su pequeño tamaño de población que se acompaña de un elevado riesgo de endogamia. Por ello, resulta importante conocer su riesgo de extinción, así como las posibles ventajas de ciertas estrategias de selección. Puesto que muchas razas domésticas comparten los mismos problemas, los resultados de dichos estudios pueden ser aplicados independientemente de la raza o la especie. En este caso, se llevó a cabo un Análisis de Viabilidad de Poblaciones (AVP) para simular, basándose en el programa Vortex, la probabilidad futura de extinción de una población de ganado bovino amenazado: el ganado danés de Jutlandia (Bos taurus). Un AVP evalúa el riesgo de extinción de una población teniendo en cuenta las amenazas y los datos demográficos. De acuerdo con los resultados del AVP, la población se extinguirá al cabo de 122 años con el manejo actual. Se plantearon cuatro escenarios para investigar qué cambios en el esquema de selección tendrían el mayor efecto sobre las probabilidades de supervivencia, incluyendo el escenario 1: Más hembras en el núcleo reproductor, el escenario 2: Más machos en el núcleo reproductor, el escenario 3: Una mayor capacidad de carga y el escenario 4: Aportar machos a la población mediante inseminación artificial con semen de toros empleados en las poblaciones en generaciones pasadas. Todos los escenarios presentaron un efecto positivo sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia de la población y, con una combinación de los diferentes escenarios, el tamaño de la población parece estabilizarse.

Keywords

Bos taurusbreeding simulationgenetic managementPopulation Viability AnalysisVortexAnalyse de Viabilité des PopulationsVortexgestion génétiquelogiciel de simulation pour la sélectionBos taurusAnálisis de Viabilidad de PoblacionesVortexmanejo genéticoprograma de simulación para la mejora genéticaBos taurus
Type
Research Article
Information
Animal Genetic Resources/Resources génétiques animales/Recursos genéticos animales , Volume 59 , December 2016 , pp. 105 - 112
Copyright
Copyright © Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2016 

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