At least in conventional hydrostatic ice-sheet models, the numerical error associated with grounding line dynamics can be reduced by modifications to the discretization scheme. These involve altering the integration formulae for the basal traction and/or driving stress close to the grounding line and exhibit lower – if still first-order – error in the MISMIP3d experiments. MISMIP3d may not represent the variety of real ice streams, in that it lacks strong lateral stresses, and imposes a large basal traction at the grounding line. We study resolution sensitivity in the context of extreme forcing simulations of the entire Antarctic ice sheet, using the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice-sheet model with two schemes: the original treatment, and a scheme, which modifies the discretization of the basal traction. The second scheme does indeed improve accuracy – by around a factor of two – for a given mesh spacing, but $\lesssim 1$ km resolution is still necessary. For example, in coarser resolution simulations Thwaites Glacier retreats so slowly that other ice streams divert its trunk. In contrast, with $\lesssim 1$ km meshes, the same glacier retreats far more quickly and triggers the final phase of West Antarctic collapse a century before any such diversion can take place.

Calving mechanisms are still poorly understood and stress states in the vicinity of ice-shelf fronts are insufficiently known for the development of physically motivated calving laws that match observations. A calving model requires the knowledge of maximum tensile stresses. These stresses depend on different simulation approaches and material models. Therefore, this study compares results of a two-dimensional (2-D) continuum approach using finite elements with results of a one-dimensional (1-D) beam model elaborated in Reeh (1968). A purely viscous model, as well as a viscoelastic Maxwell model, is applied for the 2-D case. The maximum tensile stress usually appears at the top surface of an ice shelf. Its location and magnitude are predominantly influenced by the thickness of the ice shelf and the height of the freeboard, the traction-free part at the ice front. More precisely, doubling the thickness leads to twice the stress maximum, while doubling the freeboard, based on changes of the ice density, results in an increase of the stress maximum by 61%. Poisson's ratio controls the evolution of the maximum stress with time. The viscosity and Young's modulus define the characteristic time of the Maxwell model and thus the time to reach the maximum principal stress.

The Institute Ice Stream (IIS) rests on a reverse-sloping bed, extending >150 km upstream into the ~1.8 km deep Robin Subglacial Basin, placing it at the threshold of marine ice-sheet instability. Understanding IIS vulnerability has focused on the effect of grounding-line melting, which is forecast to increase significantly this century. Changes to ice-flow dynamics are also important to IIS stability, yet little is known about them. Here we reveal that the trunk of the IIS occurs downstream of the intersection of three discrete subglacial features; a large ‘active’ subglacial lake, a newly-discovered sharp transition to a zone of weak basal sediments and a major tectonic rift. The border of IIS trunk flow is confined by the sediment on one side, and by a transition between basal melting and freezing at the border with the Bungenstock Ice Rise. By showing how basal sediment and water dictate present-day flow of IIS, we reveal that ice-sheet stability here is dependent on this unusual arrangement.

Neighboring tidewater glaciers often exhibit asynchronous dynamic behavior, despite relatively uniform regional atmospheric and oceanic forcings. This variability may be controlled by a combination of local factors, including glacier and fjord geometry, fjord heat content and circulation, and glacier surface melt. In order to characterize and understand contrasts in adjacent tidewater glacier and fjord dynamics, we made coincident ice-ocean-atmosphere observations at high temporal resolution (minutes to weeks) within a 10 000 km2 area near Uummannaq, Greenland. Water column velocity, temperature and salinity measurements reveal systematic differences in neighboring fjords that imply contrasting circulation patterns. The observed ocean velocity and hydrography, combined with numerical modeling, suggest that subglacial discharge plays a major role in setting fjord conditions. In addition, satellite remote sensing of seasonal ice flow speed and terminus position reveal both speedup and slow-down in response to melt, as well as differences in calving style among the neighboring glaciers. Glacier force budgets and modeling also point toward subglacial discharge as a key factor in glacier behavior. For the studied region, individual glacier and fjord geometry modulate subglacial discharge, which leads to contrasts in both fjord and glacier dynamics.

High-latitude atmospheric warming is impacting freshwater cycling, requiring techniques for monitoring the hydrology of sparsely-gauged regions. The submarine runoff of tidewater glaciers presents a particular challenge. We evaluate the utility of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery for monitoring turbid meltwater plume variability in the glacier lagoon Jökulsárlón, Iceland, for a short interval before the onset of the main melt season. Total Suspended Solids concentrations (TSS) of surface waters are related to remotely-sensed reflectance via empirical calibration between in-situ-sampled TSS and reflectance in a MODIS band 1-equivalent wavelength window. This study differs from previous ones in its application to an overturning tidewater glacier plume, rather than one derived from river runoff. The linear calibration improves on previous studies by facilitating a wider range of plume metrics than areal extent, notably pixel-by-pixel TSS values. Increasing values of minimum plume TSS over the study interval credibly represent rising overall turbidity in the lagoon as melting accumulates. Plume extent responds principally to consistently-strong offshore winds. Further work is required to determine the temporal persistence of the calibration, but remote plume observation holds promise for monitoring hydrological outputs from ungauged or ungaugeable systems.

In Northeast Greenland, the Norske Øer Ice Barrier (NØIB) abuts Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79N) and Zachariae Isstrøm (ZI), two floating outlets of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. NØIB is an extensive region of perennially fast sea ice, which varies in size from year to year, but with complete breakup a rare event in the 20th century. It reportedly broke up in the 1950s and was seen to break up in 1997. Since 2000 the NØIB has broken up during 11 of the last 14 summers. The forcings driving the increased frequency of ice barrier breakup are poorly understood, and it is not clear if the breakup is a purely local phenomenon or an indicator of regional changes in the ocean and atmosphere. Here we use a logistic regression statistical model to show that the odds of breakup are linked to June positive degree days and July wind speeds at a nearby weather station. It is too soon to know if subtle changes detected on 79N and ZI in the last decade are connected to breakups of the NØIB but, if they are, it suggests a complex interaction between the atmosphere, ocean and outlet glaciers in this part of Greenland.

Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is one of the key thermal boundary conditions for ice-sheet models. We assess the sensitivity of the Lambert-Amery glacial system in East Antarctica to four different GHF datasets using a regional ice-sheet model. A control solution of the regional model is initialised by minimising the misfit to observations through an optimisation process. The Lambert-Amery glacial system simulation contains temperate ice up to 150 m thick and has an average basal melt of 1.3 mm a−1, with maximum basal melting of 504 mm a−1. The simulations which use a relatively high GHF compared to the control solution increase the volume and area of temperate ice, which causes higher surface velocities at higher elevations, which leads to the advance of the grounding line. The grounding line advance leads to changes in the local flow configuration, which dominates the changes within the glacial system. To investigate the difference in spatial patterns within the geothermal datasets, they were scaled to have the same median value. These scaled GHF simulations showed that the ice flow was most sensitive to the spatial variation in the underlying GHF near the ice divides and on the edges of the ice streams.

Projections of ice-sheet mass balance require regional ocean warming projections derived from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). However, the coarse resolution of AOGCMs: (1) may lead to systematic or AOGCM-specific biases and (2) makes it difficult to identify relevant water masses. Here, we employ a large-scale metric of Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water (ASBW) to investigate circum-Antarctic temperature biases and warming projections in 19 different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) AOGCMs forced with two different ‘representative concentration pathways’ (RCPs). For high-emissions RCP 8.5, the ensemble mean 21st century ASBW warming is 0.66, 0.74 and 0.58°C for the Amundsen, Ross and Weddell Seas (AS, RS and WS), respectively. RCP 2.6 ensemble mean projections are substantially lower: 0.21, 0.26, and 0.19°C. All distributions of regional ASBW warming are positively skewed; for RCP 8.5, four AOGCMs project warming of greater than 1.8°C in the RS. Across the ensemble, there is a strong, RCP-independent, correlation between WS and RS warming. AS warming is more closely linked to warming in the Southern Ocean. We discuss possible physical mechanisms underlying the spatial patterns of warming and highlight implications of these results on strategies for forcing ice-sheet mass balance projections.

The grounded ice in the Totten and Dalton glaciers is an essential component of the buttressing for the marine-based Aurora basin, and hence their stability is important to the future rate of mass loss from East Antarctica. Totten and Vanderford glaciers are joined by a deep east-west running subglacial trench between the continental ice sheet and Law Dome, while a shallower trench links the Totten and Dalton glaciers. All three glaciers flow into the ocean close to the Antarctic circle and experience ocean-driven ice shelf melt rates comparable with the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We investigate this combination of trenches and ice shelves with the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice-sheet model and ocean-forcing melt rates derived from two global climate models. We find that ice shelf ablation at a rate comparable with the present day is sufficient to cause widespread grounding line retreat in an east-west direction across Totten and Dalton glaciers, with projected future warming causing faster retreat. Meanwhile, southward retreat is limited by the shallower ocean facing slopes between the coast and the bulk of the Aurora sub-glacial trench. However the two climate models produce completely different future ice shelf basal melt rates in this region: HadCM3 drives increasing sub-ice shelf melting to ~2150, while ECHAM5 shows little or no increase in sub-ice shelf melting under the two greenhouse gas forcing scenarios.

Studies of palaeo-accumulation rates at Dome A, East Antarctica, are entirely absent. Here, spatio-temporal variations in ice accumulation rates for the past ~161 ka are calculated from isochronous internal layering, traced from radio-echo sounding (RES) data collected by the Polar Research Institute of China (PRIC) during the 21st CHINARE. The layers are dated by linking them to the site of Vostok ice core along an RES profile, which was flown by the Alfred-Wegener-Institut (AWI) in the Dome Connection East Antarctica (DoCo) project. The Dansgaard-Johnsen model is used to determine the spatial and temporal pattern of ice accumulation in Dome A region. The results show that there is a slight increasing pattern of ice accumulation from south to north along the 216 km radar profile at Dome A. The lowest ice accumulation rates were calculated around the Dome A zone. In the past ~90 ka, there were relatively high accumulation rates during the time period 34–47 ka (Marine Isotope Stage 3) at Dome A.

The Seal Nunataks ice shelf (SNIS, ~743 km2 in 2013) is an unofficial name for a remnant area between the former Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves off the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula. Analyses using Landsat 7 ETM+ and Terra ASTER images from 2001 to 13 and ICESat altimetry from 2003 to 09 show it has retreated and thinned following the Larsen A (1995) and Larsen B (2002) disintegrations. Despite some regional cooling and more fast ice since 2008, SNIS continues to lose ice along its margins and may be losing contact with some nunataks. Detailed analysis of data from four ICESat tracks indicates that ice shelf thinning rates range between 1.9 and 2.7 m a−1, and generally increase from west to east. An ICESat repeat track crossing the adjacent Robertson Island shows a mean elevation loss of 1.8 m a−1. Two tracks crossing the SNIS's remaining tributary, Rogosh Glacier, show sub-meter elevation losses. Comparing shelf remnant and grounded ice thinning rates implies that basal ocean melting augments SNIS thinning by ~1 m a−1, a rate that is consistent with other estimates of ocean-driven shelf thinning in the region.

Aerial photography was conducted in the high Arctic Ocean during a Chinese research expedition in summer 2010. By partitioning the images into three distinct surface categories (sea ice/snow, water and melt ponds), the areal fraction of each category, ice concentration and the size and geometry of individual melt ponds, are determined with high-spatial resolution. The ice concentration and melt pond coverage have large spatial deviations between flights and even between images from the marginal ice zone to the pack ice zone in the central Arctic. Ice concentration and pond coverage over high Arctic (from 84°N to north) was ~75% and ~6.8%, respectively, providing ‘ground truth’ for the unusual transpolar reduction strip of ice indicated concurrently by AMSR-E data and for the regions (north of 88°N) where no passive microwave sensors can cover. Melt pond size and shape distributions are examined in terms of pond area (S), perimeter (P), mean caliper dimension (MCD) (L), roundness (R), convex degree (C), the ratio of P/S and fractal dimension (D). Power-law relationships are developed between pond size and number. Some general trends in geometric metrics are identified as a function of pond area including R, C, P/S and D. The scale separation of pond complexity is demonstrated by analyzing area-perimeter data. The results will potentially help the modelling of melt pond evolution and the determination of heterogeneity of under-ice transmitted light fields.

In contrast to the general trend for glaciers of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, Glaciar Pio XI has experienced a large cumulative frontal advance since 1945. In an effort to better understand this advancing behaviour, this paper presents a synoptic analysis of frontal fluctuations (1998–2014), ice velocities (1986–2014), ice-surface elevations (1975–2007) and supraglacial moraines (1945–2014) derived from geospatial datasets. These analyses reveal changes in the ice flow of Glaciar Pio XI's freshwater calving northern terminus and tidewater calving southern terminus over recent decades. Between 1986 and 2000, ice flow speed generally accelerated reaching peaks of >15 m d−1 at the frontal edge of the southern terminus. Following this period, flow speed decreased, reducing to <1 m d−1 for the central part of the southern terminus in 2014, despite advancing to a neoglacial maximum. From 2000 to 2014 the reduction in speed was accompanied by a shift in maximum velocity away from the southern terminus, towards the central glacier trunk. As a result, the northern terminus, which accelerated during this period, represented the new primary flow path in 2014. Notably, the moraine maps presented highlight surges occurring around 1981 and again between 1997 and 2000, marked by arcuate moraine features on the southern terminus.

We present simulation results from a version of the Regional Ocean Modeling System modified for ice shelf/ocean interaction, including the parameterisation of basal melting by molecular diffusion alone. Simulations investigate the differences in melting for an idealised ice shelf experiencing a range of cold to hot ocean cavity conditions. Both the pattern of melt and the location of maximum melt shift due to changes in the buoyancy-driven circulation, in a different way to previous studies. Tidal forcing increases both the circulation strength and melting, with the strongest impact on the cold cavity case. Our results highlight the importance of including a complete melt parameterisation and tidal forcing. In response to the 2.4°C ocean warming initially applied to a cold cavity ice shelf, we find that melting will increase by about an order of magnitude (24 × with tides and 41 × without tides).