The seemingly inexorable expansion of global human population size, significant increases in the use of biofuel crops and the growing pressures of multifunctional land-use have intensified the need to improve crop productivity. The widespread cultivation of high-yielding genetically modified (GM) crops could help to address these problems, although in doing so, steps must also be taken to ensure that any gene flow from these crops to wild or weedy recipients does not cause significant ecological harm. It is partly for this reason that new GM cultivars are invariably subjected to strict regulatory evaluation in order to assess the risks that each may pose to the environment. Regulatory bodies vary in their approach to decision-making, although all require access to large quantities of detailed information. Such an exhaustive case-by-case approach has been made tractable by the comparative simplicity of the portfolio of GM crops currently on the market, with four crops and two classes of traits accounting for almost all of the area under cultivation of GM crops. This simplified situation will change shortly, and will seriously complicate and potentially slow the evaluation process. Nowhere will the increased diversity of GM crops cause more difficulty to regulators than in those cases where there is a need to assess whether the transgene(s) will enhance fitness in a non-transgenic relative and thereafter cause ecological harm. Current practice to test this risk hypothesis focuses on attempting to detect increased fitness in the recipient. In this paper we explore the merits and shortcomings of this strategy, and investigate the scope for developing new approaches to streamline decision-making processes for transgenes that could cause unwanted ecological change.

Field experiments were conducted in Chile and western Canada to measure short-distance (0 to 100 m) outcrossing from transgenic safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) intended for plant molecular farming to non-transgenic commodity safflower of the same variety. The transgenic safflower used as the pollen source was transformed with a construct for seed-specific expression of a high-value protein and constitutive expression of a gene conferring resistance to the broad-spectrum herbicide glufosinate. Progeny of non-transgenic plants grown in plots adjacent to the transgenic pollen source were screened for glufosinate resistance to measure outcrossing frequency. Outcrossing frequency differed among locations: values closest to the transgenic pollen source (0 to 3 m) ranged from 0.48 to 1.67% and rapidly declined to between 0.0024 to 0.03% at distances of 50 to 100 m. At each location, outcrossing frequency was spatially heterogeneous, indicating insects or wind moved pollen asymmetrically. A power analysis assuming a binomial distribution and a range of alpha values (type 1 error) was conducted to estimate an upper and lower confidence interval for the probable transgenic seed frequency in each sample. This facilitated interpretation when large numbers of seeds were screened from the outcrossing experiments and no transgenic seeds were found. This study should aid regulators and the plant molecular farming industry in developing confinement strategies to mitigate pollen mediated gene flow from transgenic to non-transgenic safflower.

Monitoring for escape of genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape (Brassica napus) during transport can be performed by means of roadside evaluations in areas where cultivation of this GM crop is not conducted, such as in Japan. We performed a survey of oilseed rape plants growing along a 20-km section of Japan's Route 51, one of the main land transportation routes in central Japan for imports of GM oilseed rape from the Port of Kashima into Keiyo District. Oilseed rape plants were found each year, but the number of plants varied substantially during the three years of our study: 2162 plants in 2005, 4066 in 2006, and only 278 in 2007. The low number in 2007 was probably caused by roadwork. Herbicide-resistant individuals were detected in the three consecutive years (26, 8, and 5 individuals with glyphosate resistance), but glufosinate-resistant plants (9 individuals) were detected only in 2005. The roadside plants occurred mainly along the inbound lane from Kashima to Narita. These plants are likely to have their origin in seeds spilled during transportation of cargo from the port, since there are no potential natural seed source plants for B. napus near Route 51. This is the first detailed report on the transition and distribution of herbicide-resistant oilseed rape plants following loss and spillage along Japanese roads.

Risk assessments of new insect-resistant crops will need to estimate the potential for increased weediness of wild crop relatives as a consequence of gene flow. When field experiments are precluded by containment concerns, simulation experiments can identify hazards or measure expected differences between GMOs and parental plants. To measure plant fitness consequences of wild plant protection from Bt-susceptible herbivores, we used topical sprays of bacterial Bacillus thuringiensis larvacide (Bt) on Brassica rapa. Spontaneous crosses between B. rapa and Bt cole crops cannot be precluded, especially if adoption of Bt varieties leads to high exposure. We compared survivorship and seed output of B. rapa that were either protected from or exposed to Bt-susceptible Lepidoptera in the various conditions where hybrids are likely to occur: cultivated (disked) soil, uncultivated agricultural field margins, and nearby non-crop habitats (meadows and ruderal areas). The relative effect of herbivore protection varied among years, habitats, and populations of seedlings. In 2003–2004, Bt sprays did not result in lower herbivory on B. rapa, and plant fitness was not increased. However, in 2004–2006 B. rapa seedlings protected from Bt-susceptible herbivores lived 25% longer, on average, than those that were exposed to these herbivores. In addition, an average B. rapa seedling sprayed with Bt throughout its lifetime was twice as likely to produce siliques and had 251% of the seed output of a seedling exposed to herbivores. The fitness advantage of Bt-based plant protection was apparent in 2004–2005 in half the plants that experienced higher herbivory, and for 2005–2006, was more pronounced in agricultural habitats than in meadows with established, perennial vegetation and less disturbance. Positive effects of Bt-based plant protection and greater fitness in disturbed habitats suggest that crop-wild gene flow may benefit weed populations, and that field tests with herbivore exclusion/addition experiments are feasible alternatives when molecular containment of transgenes restricts field experiments with insect resistant crop-wild hybrids.