Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T02:55:19.905Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A mathematical model of rinderpest infection in cattle populations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2009

A. Tillé ,
CL. Lefèvre ,
P.-P. Pastoret  and
E. Thiry
A. Tillé
Affiliation:
Department of Virology–Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liège, 45, rue des Vétérinaires, B-1070 Brussels, Belgium
CL. Lefèvre
Affiliation:
Institute of Statistics, Free University of Brussels, C.P.210, Boulevard du Triomphe, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium
P.-P. Pastoret
Affiliation:
Department of Virology–Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liège, 45, rue des Vétérinaires, B-1070 Brussels, Belgium
E. Thiry
Affiliation:
Department of Virology–Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liège, 45, rue des Vétérinaires, B-1070 Brussels, Belgium
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

A mathematical model for the epidemiology of rinderpest was developed, starting from a simplified descriptive analysis of the disease. A formula for the calculation of the probability of infection of a susceptible animal was first established. A deterministic failure threshold of the infection was then deduced. Deterministic and stochastic approaches were adopted using iterative methods on a computer. These allowed a description of the spread and the variability of an infection process in a population to be made. An illustration of the use of this model showed that, in some cases, variability effects due to stochastic factors were very important. In these particular conditions, the use of the deterministic model alone was not adequate for a good description of the infection. Consequently, improvements of the model were proposed in order to make it more realistic and to allow its use for the evaluation of the efficiency of field operations.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 107 , Issue 2 , October 1991 , pp. 441 - 452
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1991

References

REFERENCES

1.Plowright, W. La peste bovine aujourd'hui dans le monde. Contrôle et possibilité d'éradication par la vaccination. Ann Méd Vét 1985; 129: 9–32.Google Scholar
2.Anderson, RM, May, RM. Directly transmitted infectious diseases: control by vaccination. Science 1982; 215: 1053–60.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
3.Nokes, DJ, Anderson, RM. The use of mathematical models in the epidemiological study of infectious diseases and in the design of mass immunization programmes. Epidemiol Infect 1988; 101: 1–20.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
4.Carpenter, TE. Epidemiologic programs for computers and calculators. Am J Epidemiol 1984; 120: 943–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
5.James, AD, Rossiter, PB. An epidemiological model of rinderpest. I. Description of the model. Trop Anim Health Prod 1989; 21: 59–68.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
6.Rossiter, PB, James, AD. An epidemiological model of rinderpest. II. Simulations of the behaviour of rinderpest virus in populations. Trop Anim Health Prod 1989; 21: 69–84.Google Scholar
7.Rossiter, PB, Wamwayi, HM. Surveillance and monitoring programmes in the control of rinderpest: a review. Trop Anim Health Prod 1989; 21: 89–99.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
8.Plowright, W. Rinderpest virus. Virology monographs. New York: Springer Verlag. 1968; 3: 25–110.Google Scholar
9.Plowright, W, Taylor, WP. Long-term studies of the immunity in East African cattle following inoculation with rinderpest culture vaccine. Res Vet Sci 1967; 8: 118–28.Google Scholar
10.Scott, GR. Rinderpest in the 1980s. Prog Vet Microbiol Immun 1985; 1: 145–74.Google ScholarPubMed
11.Taylor, WP. Epidemiology and control of rinderpest. Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 1986; 5: 407–10.Google Scholar
12.Liess, B, Plowright, W. Studies on the pathogenesis of rinderpest in experimental cattle. I. Correlation of clinical signs, viraemia and virus excretion by various routes. J Hyg 1964; 62: 81–100.Google Scholar
13.Lefevre, C, Picard, P. On the formulation of discrete-time epidemic models. Math Biosci 1989; 95: 27–35.Google Scholar
14.Bailey, NTJ. The mathematical theory of infectious diseases and its applications. London: Charles Griffin. 1975.Google Scholar
15.Robson, J, Arnold, RM, Plowright, W, Scott, GR. The isolation from an eland of a strain of rinderpest virus attenuated for cattle. Bull Epiz Dis Afr 1959; 7: 97–102.Google Scholar
16.Rweyemamu, MM, Reid, HW, Okuna, N. Observations on the behaviour of rinderpest virus in immune animals challenged intranasally. Bull Epiz Dis Afr 1974; 22: 1–9.Google Scholar
17.Plowright, W. Some properties of strains of rinderpest virus recently isolated in E. Africa. Res Vet Sci 1963; 4: 96–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar