We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010–2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.

There has been a worldwide increase in bed bug infestations over the last 10–15 years. A major stigma is placed upon the institutions found to be infested. We report our experience with an outbreak of the tropical bed bug, Cimex hemipterus, in a neonatal unit. The outbreak not only affected the admitted newborns and mothers by causing a wide variety of rashes and inducing sleeplessness, but also impinged upon the health professionals and their families by producing similar symptomology. It is important for healthcare providers to be aware of, and for each healthcare facility to have, bed bug prevention and control policies.

We analysed data from a prospective cohort of 255024 adults aged ⩾45 years recruited from 2006–2009 to identify characteristics associated with a zoster diagnosis. Diagnoses were identified by linkage to pharmaceutical treatment and hospitalization records specific for zoster and hazard ratios were estimated. Over 940583 person-years, 7771 participants had a zoster diagnosis; 253 (3·3%) were hospitalized. After adjusting for age and other factors, characteristics associated with zoster diagnoses included: having a recent immunosuppressive condition [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1·58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·32–1·88], female sex (aHR 1·36, 95% CI 1·30–1·43), recent cancer diagnosis (aHR 1·35, 95% CI 1·24–1·46), and severe physical limitation vs. none (aHR 1·33, 95% CI 1·23–1·43). The relative risk of hospitalization for zoster was higher for those with an immunosuppressive condition (aHR 3·78, 95% CI 2·18–6·55), those with cancer (aHR 1·78, 95% CI 1·24–2·56) or with severe physical limitations (aHR 2·50, 95% CI 1·56–4·01). The novel finding of an increased risk of zoster diagnoses and hospitalizations in those with physical limitations should prompt evaluation of the use of zoster vaccine in this population.

System dynamics approach offers great potential for addressing how intervention policies can affect the spread of emerging infectious diseases in complex and highly networked systems. Here, we develop a model that explains the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemic that occurred in Hong Kong in 2003. The dynamic model developed with system dynamics methodology included 23 variables (five states, four flows, eight auxiliary variables, six parameters), five differential equations and 12 algebraic equations. The parameters were optimized following an iterative process of simulation to fit the real data from the epidemics. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the reliability of the model. In addition, we discuss how further testing using this model can inform community interventions to reduce the risk in current and future outbreaks, such as the recently Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic.

A number of recent reports emphasize the risk of zoonotic diseases and the high degree of prevalence of asymptomatic animals infected with Leptospira interrogans. This report sought to assess the prevalence of antibodies to certain serovars of L. interrogans, and to describe the association between seropositivity and risk factors associated with within-flock transmission in a mountainous region of Mexico. Overall seroprevalence to L. interrogans was 54·5% (95% confidence interval 48·3–60·7); the most frequent serovar was Icterohaemorrhagiae. The accumulation of placentas and fetuses at a site close to lambing paddocks can play a significant role as a risk factor for within-flock transmission of L. interrogans in transhumant farming systems in the municipality of Xalatlaco. The high prevalence of L. interrogans antibodies supports the hypothesis that natural foci of this zoonosis are present in sheep flocks in this area. These findings emphasize the need for planning and implementation of control programmes for ovine leptospirosis in Mexico and elsewhere.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of life in patients with vascular chronic Q fever at time of diagnosis and during follow-up. Based upon the SF-36 questionnaire, the mean physical and mental health of each patient were assessed at 3-month intervals for up to 18 months. A total of 26 patients were included in the study. At time of diagnosis, the mean physical health and mental health score was 50·6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 46·7–54·4] and 44·6 (95% CI 41·6–47·5), respectively. During treatment, the mean physical health score declined significantly by 1·7 points each 3 months (P < 0·001) to 40·8 (95% CI 34·4–45·1). The mean mental health score significantly and steadily increased towards 51·2 (95% CI 46·9–54·3) during follow-up (P = 0·026). A total of 23% of patients were cured after 18 months of follow-up. In conclusion, quality of life at time of diagnosis for patients with vascular chronic Q fever is lower compared to a similar group of patients, matched for age and gender, with an aortic abdominal aneurysmal disease, and physical health decreases further after starting treatment. Considering the low percentage of cure, the current treatment of vascular chronic Q fever patients may require a separate strategy from that of endocarditis in order to increase survival.