It is paramount to understand the epidemiology of chronic hepatitis B to inform national policies on vaccination and screening/testing as well as cost-effectiveness studies. However, information on the national (Scottish) prevalence of chronic hepatitis B by ethnic group is lacking. To estimate the number of people with chronic hepatitis B in Scotland in 2009 by ethnicity, gender and age, the test data from virology laboratories in the four largest cities in Scotland were combined with estimates of the ethnic distribution of the Scottish population. Ethnicity in both the test data and the Scottish population was derived using a name-based ethnicity classification software (OnoMAP; Publicprofiler Ltd, UK). For 2009, we estimated 8720 [95% confidence interval (CI) 7490–10 230] people aged ⩾15 years were living with chronic hepatitis B infection in Scotland. This corresponds to 0·2% (95% CI 0·17–0·24) of the Scottish population aged ⩾15 years. Although East and South Asians make up a small proportion of the Scottish population, they make up 44% of the infected population. In addition, 75% of those infected were aged 15–44 years with almost 60% male. This study quantifies for the first time on a national level the burden of chronic hepatitis B infection by ethnicity, gender and age. It confirms the importance of promoting and targeting ethnic minority groups for hepatitis B testing.

Exclusion of children with presumptive Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) from childcare facilities until negative stool specimens are obtained is routine practice that disrupts families. We estimated the shedding and exclusion duration and transmission risk in such facilities. The study population comprised 225 children aged <6 years attending 201 childcare facilities in England with microbiologically confirmed VTEC in 2010–2011. We estimated the interval from onset to first negative specimen, and identified transmission events with secondary cases linked to facilities. The median duration of shedding was 31 days, and median period of exclusion was 39·5 days. Cases attending facilities while shedding VTEC did so for a median of 2 days before exclusion. Secondary cases occurred in 6/83 facilities (7%) attended by infectious cases. Despite evidence of VTEC shedding at facilities, transmission is relatively low. Revised control guidelines could consider supervised return for prolonged asymptomatic shedders.

Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide zoonosis due to Toxoplasma gondii, a ubiquitous protozoan parasite of warm-blooded animals including humans. In pregnant women, primary infection can cause congenital toxoplasmosis resulting in severe malformations in the newborn. Since 1978, public health authorities in France have implemented a congenital toxoplasmosis prevention programme, including monthly serological screening of all seronegative pregnant women, and treatment in case of seroconversion. However, this programme does not produce systematic surveillance data on incidence and prevalence. Our objective was to estimate the incidence and prevalence of T. gondii infection, and the incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in women in France. We used a catalytic model to estimate incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma infection between 1980 and 2020 in women of childbearing age. We used age- and time-specific seroprevalence data obtained from the National Perinatal Surveys (NPS) conducted in 1995, 2003 and 2010. We assumed that incidence depends both on age and calendar time, and can be expressed as the product of two unknown functions. We also estimated incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in 2010 from the NPS and the National Surveillance of Congenital Toxoplasmosis (ToxoSurv). We combined data of 42208 women aged 15–45 years with serology available from the three NPS. For women aged 30 years the modelled incidence decreased from 7·5/1000 susceptible women in 1980 to 3·5/1000 in 2000. In 2010 the incidence was 2·4/1000. The predicted incidence and prevalence for 2020 was 1·6/1000 and 27%, respectively. The incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in 2010 was estimated at 2·1/1000 susceptible pregnant women (95% CI 1·3–3·1) from the NPS and 1·9 (95% CI 1·8–2·1) from ToxoSurv. Incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma infection has decreased markedly during the last 30 years. This decrease may be explained by a lower exposure to the parasite by changes in food habits and by improved hygiene practices in meat production. Modelled estimations were consistent with estimates observed in other studies conducted previously in France. The catalytic modelling provides reliable estimates of incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma infection over time. This approach might be useful for evaluating preventive programme for toxoplasmosis.

To identify risk factors for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in Danish patients consulting general practice with gastrointestinal symptoms, a prospective matched case-control study was performed; cases (N = 259) had positive cultures for toxigenic C. difficile and controls (N = 455) negative cultures. Data were analysed by conditional logistic regression. In patients aged ⩾2 years (138 cases), hospitalization [odds ratio (OR) 8·4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3·1–23], consumption of beef (OR 5·5, 95% CI 2·0–15), phenoxymethylpenicillin (OR 15, 95% CI 2·7–82), dicloxacillin (OR 27, 95% CI 3·6–211), and extended spectrum penicillins (OR 9·2, 95% CI 1·9–45) were associated with CDI. In patients aged <2 years none of these were associated with CDI, but in a subgroup analysis contact with animals was associated with CDI (OR 8·1, 95% CI 1·0–64). This study emphasizes narrow-spectrum penicillins, and suggests beef consumption, as risk factors for CDI in adults, and indicates a different epidemiology of CDI in infants.

Q fever is a notifiable disease in Germany. The majority of the reported cases are related to outbreaks. The objective of our study was to evaluate the general role of Q fever in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We investigated respiratory samples and sera from 255 patients with CAP, who were enrolled into a CAPNETZ cohort in summer 2005. Altogether, our data showed a significant prevalence of Q fever as CAP (3·5%). If a patient's condition leads to a diagnostic test for Chlamydophila sp., Mycoplasma sp. or Legionella sp., then a Q fever diagnostic test should also be included. In particular, ELISA as a first diagnostic step is easy to perform. PCR should be performed at an early stage of the disease if no antibodies are detectable. Because of our highly promising findings we suggest performing PCR in respiratory samples.

In a first study from India, a diverse collection of 140 environmental and clinical non-O157 Shiga-toxigenic Escherichia coli strains from a large geographical area in north India was typed by multi-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA). The distribution of major virulence genes stx1, stx2 and eae was found to be 78%, 70% and 10%, respectively; 15 isolates were enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (stx1 +/stx2 + and eae +). By MLVA analysis, 44 different alleles were obtained. Dendrogram analysis revealed 104 different genotypes and 19 MLVA-type complexes divided into two main lineages, i.e. mutton and animal stool. Human isolates presented a statistically significant greater odds ratio for clustering with mutton samples compared to animal stool isolates. Five human isolates clustered with animal stool strains suggesting that some of the human infections may be from cattle, perhaps through milk, contact or the environment. Further epidemiological studies are required to explore these sources in context with occurrence of human cases.

In Finland in April 2010, a 3-month old baby was diagnosed with type A infant botulism. He excreted botulinum neurotoxin and/or Clostridium botulinum in his faeces until November 2010. Five months of excretion was after clinical recovery and discharge from hospital. C. botulinum isolates recovered from the household dust in the patient's home were genetically identical to those found in the infant's stool samples. Long-term faecal excretion of C. botulinum may pose a possible health risk for the parents and others in close contact with the infant.

The epidemiology of varicella is believed to differ between temperate and tropical countries. We conducted a varicella seroprevalence study in elementary and college students in the US territory of American Samoa before introduction of a routine varicella vaccination programme. Sera from 515 elementary and 208 college students were tested for the presence of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) IgG antibodies. VZV seroprevalence increased with age from 76·0% in the 4–6 years group to 97·7% in those aged ⩾23 years. Reported history of varicella disease for elementary students was significantly associated with VZV seropositivity. The positive and negative predictive values of varicella disease history were 93·4% and 36·4%, respectively, in elementary students and 97·6% and 3·0%, respectively, in college students. VZV seroprevalence in this Pacific island appears to be similar to that in temperate countries and suggests endemic VZV circulation.

This paper considers the reported attack ratio arising from outbreaks of influenza in enclosed societies. These societies are isolated from the wider community and have greater opportunities for contact between members which would aid the spread of disease. While the particular kind of society (prison, care home, school, barracks, etc.) was not a significant factor in an adjusted model of attack ratio, a person's occupation within the society was. In particular, children and military personnel suffer a greater attack ratio than other occupational types (staff, prisoners, etc.). There was no temporal trend in final attack ratio nor, with the exception of 1918, do pandemic years show abnormal attack ratios. We also observed that as community size increases, the attack ratio undergoes steep nonlinear decline. This statistical analysis draws attention to how the organization of such societies, their size and the occupations of individuals within them affect the final attack ratio.

In this study, Coxiella burnetii seroprevalence was assessed for dairy and non-dairy sheep farm residents in The Netherlands for 2009–2010. Risk factors for seropositivity were identified for non-dairy sheep farm residents. Participants completed farm-based and individual questionnaires. In addition, participants were tested for IgG and IgM C. burnetii antibodies using immunofluorescent assay. Risk factors were identified by univariate, multivariate logistic regression, and multivariate multilevel analyses. In dairy and non-dairy sheep farm residents, seroprevalence was 66·7% and 51·3%, respectively. Significant risk factors were cattle contact, high goat density near the farm, sheep supplied from two provinces, high frequency of refreshing stable bedding, farm started before 1990 and presence of the Blessumer breed. Most risk factors indicate current or past goat and cattle exposure, with limited factors involving sheep. Subtyping human, cattle, goat, and sheep C. burnetii strains might elucidate their role in the infection risk of sheep farm residents.

Information on the incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is essential for models of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programmes. We developed two independent estimates of CT incidence in women in England: one based on an incidence study, with estimates ‘recalibrated’ to the general population using data on setting-specific relative risks, and allowing for clearance and re-infection during follow-up; the second based on UK prevalence data, and information on the duration of CT infection. The consistency of independent sources of data on incidence, prevalence and duration, validates estimates of these parameters. Pooled estimates of the annual incidence rate in women aged 16–24 and 16–44 years for 2001–2005 using all these data were 0·05 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0·035–0·071] and 0·021 (95% CrI 0·015–0·028), respectively. Although, the estimates apply to England, similar methods could be used in other countries. The methods could be extended to dynamic models to synthesize, and assess the consistency of data on contact and transmission rates.

We sought to estimate mortality and associated factors in HIV-hepatitis co-infected individuals in Michigan using a retrospective cohort study. For the study period of 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2009, all HIV-infected individuals were matched to hepatitis B and C cases. In the final Cox proportional hazards regression model, individuals of other [hazard ratio (HR) 2·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·4–3·2] and black (HR 1·3, 95% CI 1·1–1·6) race had decreased survival compared to white race. Similarly, injecting drug users (IDUs) (HR 2·1, 95% CI 1·6–2·6), men who have sex with men (MSM)/IDUs (HR 1·5, 95% CI 1·1–2·2), individuals with undetermined risk (HR 1·5, 95% CI 1·2–1·9) and heterosexual practices (HR 1·4, 95% CI 1·1–1·8) had decreased survival compared to MSM. Additionally, an interaction was found between current HIV status and co-infection. Mortality in HIV-hepatitis co-infected individuals remains a continuing problem. Our study can help in planning interventions to reduce mortality in HIV-infected individuals.

We studied the timing of occurrence of 1676 sporadic, community-acquired cases of Legionnaires' disease in England and Wales between 1993 and 2008, in relation to temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, windspeed and ultraviolet light using a fixed-stratum case-crossover approach. The analysis was conducted using conditional logistic regression, with consideration of appropriate lag periods. There was evidence of an association between the risk of Legionnaires' disease and temperature with an apparently long time lag of 1–9 weeks [odds of disease at 95th vs. 75th centiles: 3·91, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·06–7·40], and with rainfall at short time lags (of 2–10 days) (odds of disease at 75th vs. 50th centiles: 1·78, 95% CI 1·50–2·13). There was some evidence that the risk of disease in relation to high temperatures was greater at high relative humidities. A higher risk of Legionnaires' disease may be indicated by preceding periods of warmer wetter weather.

We developed, in bench-scale experiments, a unified loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay for the detection of cutaneous, mucocutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis using DNA of cultivated promastigotes. Two primer sets for the LAMP assay were designed based on the 18S rRNA gene, and their sensitivity and specificity were tested and compared. Both of them were specific for Leishmania as the DNA of all ten Leishmania species tested was amplified, whereas the DNA of other parasites, including that of Trypanosoma, was not. The detection limit for primer set 1 ranged between 30 pg and 3·6 fg, depending on which Leishmania species tested. Primer set 2 showed high sensitivity, but was less sensitive than primer set 1. Our findings lead to the conclusion that the LAMP assay with primer set 1 is a promising and effective assay for the successful detection of a wide range of Leishmania infections using only a unified multiplex LAMP test.

Helicobacter pylori culture on gastric biopsy was performed on 4964 subjects aged <18 years from 1988 to 2007 at a central laboratory in Brussels. The total number of biopsies increased markedly from 941 in 1988–1993 to 1608 in 2004–2007. Biopsies were repeated at least once for 922 subjects (603 initially negative and 319 initially positive for H. pylori). Persistence rate of H. pylori at 1 year after initial positive biopsy was greater in the 1998–2007 cohort than in the 1988–1997 cohort (72·7% vs. 45·8%, P = 0·002), suggesting a tailored selection of candidates for biopsy with non-invasive tests (13C urea breath test). Of 68 subjects initially positive and re-examined subsequently after a documented cure, re-infection/relapse rate was 48·6% within 5 years post-elimination of H. pylori. Acquisition rate over 10 years follow-up in the initially negative cohort (603 patients) was 38·7% (re-infection/relapse vs. acquisition: P < 0·001). Multivariate analysis showed a fourfold greater risk of H. pylori acquisition in children of non-European origin vs. European origin (P < 0·001). Clarithromycin and metronidazole susceptibility were determined in 226 and 223 paired positive cultures in cases of re-infection/relapse or persistence. An initial non-susceptibility profile was highly predictive of a subsequent non-susceptibility profile, and the non-susceptible proportion increased markedly from 13·3% to 21·2% for clarithromycin (P < 0·001) and from 27·3% to 35·0% for metronidazole (P = 0·014), with no difference regarding European or non-European origin.

We provide an update on the epidemiology of shigellosis in Israel using data generated by a sentinel laboratory-based surveillance network for the period 1998–2012. The average annual incidence of culture-proven shigellosis was 97/100 000. We estimated that each case of shigellosis accounted for 25 cases in the community indicating the high burden of disease. Orthodox Jewish communities, living in highly crowded conditions and with a high number of children aged <5 years were the epicentre of country-wide biennial propagated epidemics of S. sonnei shigellosis. S. flexneri was the leading Shigella serogroup in Israeli Arabs. S. flexneri 2a and S. flexneri 6 alternated as the most common serotypes. Both S. sonnei and S. flexneri isolates showed high rates of resistance to ampicillin and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and very low rates of resistance to quinolones and third-generation cephalosporins. Shigellosis due to S. sonnei conferred 81% (95% confidence interval 69–89) protection against the homologous Shigella serotype when epidemic exposure re-occurred 2 years later. These data are of value in the process of Shigella vaccine development.

The association between herpes zoster and subsequent cancer risk is still unclear. Consequently, doubts remain regarding the need for investigation of herpes patients for co-existing or subsequent malignancy. This is a retrospective cohort study comparing cancer risk in patients after herpes zoster and age-/sex-matched non-herpes zoster patients, in a primary care-based continuous morbidity database. We tested for interaction by gender, age, diabetes, HRT use or antiviral therapy. Analyses were repeated for patients with and without herpes simplex. The hazard ratio (HR) comparing cancer risk in herpes zoster vs. control patients was significant in all women, women aged > 65 years and subgroups of breast and colorectal cancer (HRs 1·60, 1·82, 2·14, 2·19, respectively). For men, a significant association was found for haematological cancers (HR 2·92). No associations were found with herpes simplex. No interaction was identified with antiviral therapy, diabetes or HRT treatment. We concluded that there was a moderate significant association between herpes zoster and subsequent cancer risk in women aged > 65 years, without any influence of antiviral therapy. No association was found with herpes simplex. There is insufficient reason for extensively testing older patients with herpes zoster or herpes simplex for the presence of occult cancer.

We analysed a cross-sectional telephone survey of U.S. adults to assess the impact of selected characteristics on healthcare-seeking behaviours and treatment practices of people with influenza-like illness (ILI) from September 2009 to March 2010. Of 216 431 respondents, 8·1% reported ILI. After adjusting for selected characteristics, respondents aged 18–64 years with the following factors were more likely to report ILI: a diagnosis of asthma [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1·88, 95% CI 1·67–2·13] or heart disease (aOR 1·41, 95% CI 1·17–1·70), being disabled (aOR 1·75, 95% CI 1·57–1·96), and reporting financial barriers to healthcare access (aOR 1·63, 95% CI 1·45–1·82). Similar associations were seen in respondents aged ⩾65 years. Forty percent of respondents with ILI sought healthcare, and 14% who sought healthcare reported receiving influenza antiviral treatment. Treatment was not more frequent in patients with high-risk conditions, except those aged 18–64 years with heart disease (aOR 1·90, 95% CI 1·03–3·51). Of patients at high risk for influenza complications, self-reported ILI was greater but receipt of antiviral treatment was not, despite guidelines recommending their use in this population.

Migrants born in hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) endemic countries are at increased risk of being infected with these viruses. The first symptoms may arise when liver damage has already occurred. The challenge is to identify these infections early, since effective treatment has become available. In 2011 we conducted a screening project in first-generation migrants (FGMs) born in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, the former Soviet Republics, and Vietnam and living in Arnhem and Rheden. All participants were offered free blood screening for HBV and HCV. In total 959 participants were tested, with the country of origin known for 927, equating to 28·7% of all registered FGMs from the chosen countries. Nineteen percent (n = 176) had serological signs of past or chronic HBV infection and 2·2% (n = 21) had chronic HBV infection. The highest prevalence of chronic HBV infection was found in the Vietnamese population (9·5%, n = 12). Chronic HCV was found in two persons from the former Soviet Republics and one from Vietnam. Twenty-four percent (n = 5) of the newly identified patients with chronic HBV and one of the three patients with chronic HCV received treatment. Three of the patients, two with HCV and one with HBV, already had liver cirrhosis. The highest (9·5%) HBV prevalence was found in FGMs from Vietnam, indicating a high need for focusing on that particular immigrant population in order to identify more people with silent HBV infection. The fact that three patients already had liver cirrhosis underlines the necessity of early identification of HBV and HCV infection in risk groups.