Meningococcal serogroup W strains have been emerging throughout the current century with most of the isolates belonging to the sequence type (ST11)/electrophoretic type (ET37) clonal complex (ST11/E37 CC), particularly since the international outbreak following Hajj 2000. That outbreak appears to have triggered off that trend, contributing to the spread of W ST11/ET37 CC strains globally; however, local strains could be also responsible for increases in the percentage and/or incidence rates of this serogroup in some countries. More recently, unexpected increases in the percentage and incidence rate of W has been noticed in different countries located in the South Cone in Latin America, and W ST11/ET37 CC strains now appear as endemic in the region and an extensive immunization programme with tetravalent conjugate vaccine (covering serogroups A, C, Y and W) has been recently implemented in Chile. It is difficult to ascertain whether we are observing the emergence of W ST11 CC strains in different geographical areas or whether the Hajj 2000 strain is still spreading globally. Several aspects of the evolution of that situation are analysed in this paper, reviewing also the implications in immunization programmes. Closely related with the analysis of this potential evolution, it will be very interesting to monitor the evolution of serogroup W in the African meningitis belt after implementation of the extensive immunization programme with serogroup A conjugate vaccine that is currently underway. More data about carriers, transmission, clonal lineages, etc. are needed for taking decisions (target groups, outbreak control, defining the extent, etc.) to adapt the response strategy with potential interventions with broad coverage vaccines against the emergent serogroup W.

The oncogenic potential of human papillomaviruses (HPV) is well known in the context of cervical carcinoma; however, their role in the development of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is less clear. We aimed to determine the extent of the association between HPV infection and OSCC. A comprehensive literature search found 132 studies addressing HPV and OSCC in human cases, and a meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model. There was evidence of an increased risk of OSCC in patients with HPV infection [odds ratio (OR) 2·69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·05–3·54]. The prevalence of HPV in OSCC was found to be 24·8%. There was an increased risk associated with HPV-16 infection (OR 2·35, 95% CI 1·73–3·19). Subgroup analyses showed geographical variance, with Asia (OR 2·94, 95% CI 2·16–4·00), and particularly China (OR 2·85, 95% CI 2·05–3·96) being high-risk areas. Our results confirm an increase in HPV infection in OSCC cases.

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

A suspected dengue fever outbreak occurred in 2010 at a solitary construction site in Shenzhen city, China. To investigate this epidemic, we used serological, molecular biological, and bioinformatics techniques. Of nine serum samples from suspected patients, we detected seven positive for dengue virus (DENV) antibodies, eight for DENV-1 RNA, and three containing live viruses. The isolated virus, SZ1029 strain, was sequenced and confirmed as DENV-1, showing the highest E-gene homology to D1/Malaysia/36000/05 and SG(EHI)DED142808 strains recently reported in Southeast Asia. Further phylogenetic tree analysis confirmed their close relationship. At the epidemic site, we also detected 14 asymptomatic co-workers (out of 291) positive for DENV antibody, and DENV-1-positive mosquitoes. Thus, we concluded that DENV-1 caused the first local dengue fever outbreak in Shenzhen. Because no imported case was identified, the molecular fingerprints of the SZ1029 strain suggest this outbreak may be due to vertical transmission imported from Southeast Asia.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is the opportunistic pathogen mostly implicated in folliculitis and acute otitis externa in pools and hot tubs. Nevertheless, infection risks remain poorly quantified. This paper reviews disease aetiologies and bacterial skin colonization science to advance dose-response theory development. Three model forms are identified for predicting disease likelihood from pathogen density. Two are based on Furumoto & Mickey's exponential ‘single-hit’ model and predict infection likelihood and severity (lesions/m2), respectively. ‘Third-generation’, mechanistic, dose-response algorithm development is additionally scoped. The proposed formulation integrates dispersion, epidermal interaction, and follicle invasion. The review also details uncertainties needing consideration which pertain to water quality, outbreaks, exposure time, infection sites, biofilms, cerumen, environmental factors (e.g. skin saturation, hydrodynamics), and whether P. aeruginosa is endogenous or exogenous. The review's findings are used to propose a conceptual infection model and identify research priorities including pool dose-response modelling, epidermis ecology and infection likelihood-based hygiene management.

Consumption of seafood contaminated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus causes foodborne infections, which are on the rise owing to increased consumption of raw seafood in Asia, Europe, North America, and other regions. V. parahaemolyticus infections have been common in Japan since the 1960s. Following an epidemic in 1997, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare instituted regulations for seafood in 1999, which appear to be reducing V. parahaemolyticus infections. In this review, we describe the scientific findings for these regulations. Analyses of the V. parahaemolyticus serotypes and isolate characteristics in samples from infected patients and contaminated seafood are discussed. In addition, based on the results of a survey, we show that new food safety regulations have led to improvements in food hygiene at many seafood retail shops, food service facilities, and restaurants. This example from Japan could be of immense help to control foodborne infections in other countries.

A series of observational studies were evaluated concerning the risk of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in pregnancy; however, the results were controversial. We systematically reviewed and collected data on studies regarding HPV prevalence published up to 30 April 2013, in which HPV was detected in pregnant women or both in pregnant and non-pregnant women. In total, 28 eligible studies were included that provided data on HPV infection concerning 13 640 pregnant women. The overall HPV prevalence in pregnant and age-matched non-pregnant women was 16·82% [95% confidence interval (CI) 16·21–17·47] and 12·25% (95% CI 11·50–13·01), respectively. The prevalence in the in three trimesters was 18·20%, 14·38%, and 19·32%, respectively. HPV-16 was the most frequently observed type, with a prevalence of 3·86% (95% CI 3·40–4·32). The overall HPV prevalence varied by study region, age, and HPV type. The meta-analysis showed a significantly increased risk of HPV infection in pregnant women, with a summary odds ratio (OR) of 1·42 (95% CI 1·25–1·61), especially for those aged <25 years (OR 1·79, 95% CI 1·22–2·63). The results suggest that pregnant women, especially those aged <25 years, are more susceptible to HPV infection.

On 14 January 2013, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced permission for a multiplex nucleic acid test, the xTAG® Gastrointestinal Pathogen Panel (GPP) (Luminex Corporation, USA), which simultaneously detects 11 common viral, bacterial and parasitic causes of infectious gastroenteritis, to be marketed in the USA. This announcement reflects the current move towards the development and commercialization of detection technologies based on nucleic acid amplification techniques for diagnosis of syndromic infections. We discuss the limitations and advantages of nucleic acid amplification techniques and the recent advances in Conformité Européene – in-vitro diagnostic (CE-IVD)-approved multiplex real-time PCR kits for the simultaneous detection of multiple targets within the clinical diagnostics market.

The active form of vitamin D has effects on both innate and adaptive immune responses that may influence the outcome in many infectious diseases. Observational studies conclusively show that a low vitamin D status is associated with an increased occurrence of respiratory viral infections, which globally represent significant health and financial burdens. However, no consistent protective effects are evident in prospective clinical trials carried out to date where vitamin D was provided as a dietary supplement, except possibly in cases where the starting vitamin D status of the individual was considered deficient. Thus far, vitamin D has not been found to enhance the immune response to vaccines. The design of future prospective clinical trials assessing a role for vitamin D in respiratory viral infections requires very careful planning to avoid the uncertainties associated with the data available currently.

For decades, vaccination with the 23-valent polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine (PPV23) has been available for risk groups aged ⩾2 years to prevent invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Recently, a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugated vaccine (PCV13) has been licensed for use in all age groups. PCV13 may induce better protection than PPV23 because of different immunogenic properties. This called for a revision of vaccine recommendations for risk groups. We therefore reviewed literature on risk groups for IPD, and effectiveness and safety of pneumococcal vaccines and supplemented that with information from public health institutes, expert consultations and data on IPD epidemiology. We included 187 articles. We discuss the implications of the heterogenic vulnerability for IPD within and between risk groups, large indirect effects of childhood immunization, and limited knowledge on additional clinical benefits of PCV13 in combination with PPV23 for the Norwegian recommendations. These are now step-wise and consider the need for vaccination, choice of pneumococcal vaccines, and re-vaccination interval by risk group.

Sindbis virus (SINV), the prototype positive-sense RNA alphavirus, causes febrile arthritis and is present throughout Afro-Eurasia. Little is known of the epidemiology of Sindbis fever due to insufficient surveillance in most endemic countries. The epidemiological features of Sindbis fever in humans in South Africa are described here based on a retrospective study of suspected arbovirus cases submitted for laboratory investigation from 2006 to 2010. Cases were detected annually mostly during the late summer/early autumn months and an increase in cases was noted for 2010, coinciding with an outbreak of Rift Valley fever. Cases were reported most often from the central plateau of South Africa and involved mostly males. No severe or fatal cases were reported and cases were associated with febrile arthralgia as commonly reported for SINV infection. Further surveillance is required to reveal the true extent of the morbidity of Sindbis fever in South Africa.

By surveying extensive epidemiological behavioural and sexual risk factors in a Korean twin cohort, risk factors for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection were investigated in South Korea. A total of 912 vaginal specimens were collected from the Healthy Twin Study, consisting of twins and their families. A range of epidemiological, behavioural, and sexual activity characteristics were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analyses of family and twin relationships, adjusted to elucidate the risk factors for HPV infection. Of the various epidemiological characteristics, the possibility of extramarital affairs [odds ratio (OR) 2·48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·02–6·02] significantly increased the prevalence of HPV infection. Our multivariate regression analysis indicated that oral contraceptive use (OR 40·64, 95% CI 0·99–1670·7) and history of sexually transmitted disease (OR 2·56, 95% CI 0·93–7·10) were strongly associated with an increase in HPV infection. On the other hand, more frequent vaginal douching (OR 0·32, 95% CI 0·13–0·77) significantly decreased the prevalence of HPV infection. Our results suggested that HPV infection is associated with both biological and behavioural factors.

Recent much-publicized increases in pertussis case reports in some countries with high vaccine coverage have raised concerns about its current and future control. The ubiquity of this trend, however, remains unexamined. In an attempt to paint a global picture, we used case counts to determine which countries experienced statistically significant trends in incidence over the past two decades and to map changes in incidence during this period. These data reveal that pertussis resurgence is not a universal phenomenon. The heterogeneity in incidence trends, even in countries with superficially similar demography, socioeconomic conditions and vaccination programmes, is striking and requires explanation. In this opinion piece, we review and assess the multifaceted proposed explanations incorporating evolution, population dynamics, and the details of immunization programmes. While we do not solve the riddle that is pertussis epidemiology, we highlight critical aspects that are likely to hold the key to understanding its worldwide epidemiology.

This study determined the risk of respiratory infection associated with high-risk procedures (HRPs) performed by healthcare workers (HCWs) in high-risk settings. We prospectively studied 481 hospital HCWs in China, documented risk factors for infection, including performing HRPs, measured new infections, and analysed whether HRPs predicted infection. Infection outcomes were clinical respiratory infection (CRI), laboratory-confirmed viral or bacterial infection, and an influenza infection. About 12% (56/481) of the study participants performed at least one HRP, the most common being airway suctioning (7·7%, 37/481). HCWs who performed a HRP were at significantly higher risk of developing CRI and laboratory-confirmed infection [adjusted relative risk 2·9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·42–5·87 and 2·9, 95% CI 1·37–6·22, respectively]. Performing a HRP resulted in a threefold increase in the risk of respiratory infections. This is the first time the risk has been prospectively quantified in HCWs, providing data to inform occupational health and safety policies.

Since Ebola virus was discovered in 1970s, the virus has persisted in Africa and sporadic fatal outbreaks in humans and non-human primates have been reported. However, the evolutionary history of Ebola virus remains unclear. In this study, 27 Ebola virus strains with complete glycoprotein genes, including five species (Zaire, Sudan, Reston, Tai Forest, Bundibugyo), were analysed. Here, we propose a hypothesis of the evolutionary history of Ebola virus which will be helpful to investigate the molecular evolution of these viruses.

A seroprevalence survey on measles, mumps, rubella and varicella was conducted on healthcare workers (HCWs) at Shimane University Hospital, Japan utilizing an enzyme immunoassay. Of 1811 HCWs tested, 91·8% were seropositive to measles, 92·1% to mumps, 89·5% to rubella and 96·3% to varicella. Sex-related differences in seroprevalence were found in rubella (males vs. females: 84·7 vs. 92·2%, P < 0·001). Moreover, males aged 30–39 years were most susceptible to rubella (22·4%), which may be attributed to the design of childhood immunization programmes in Japan. Individuals aged ⩽29 years were more susceptible to measles (14·3%) and mumps (10·9%), compared to other age groups. There were no significant sex- and age-related differences in varicella seroprevalence. The physician occupational group was more susceptible to rubella, but no significant occupational-related difference was observed in the other diseases. Susceptible subjects, with negative or equivocal serological results were given a vaccine which induced seroconversion in most vaccinees. Seroconversion occurred more frequently in the equivocal group than in the negative group. These findings provide a new insight for the seroprevalence survey of vaccine-preventable diseases in Japanese HCWs with special reference to vaccine efficacy.