Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading global infectious cause of death. Understanding TB transmission is critical to creating policies and monitoring the disease with the end goal of TB elimination. To our knowledge, there has been no systematic review of key transmission parameters for TB. We carried out a systematic review of the published literature to identify studies estimating either of the two key TB transmission parameters: the serial interval (SI) and the reproductive number. We identified five publications that estimated the SI and 56 publications that estimated the reproductive number. The SI estimates from four studies were: 0.57, 1.42, 1.44 and 1.65 years; the fifth paper presented age-specific estimates ranging from 20 to 30 years (for infants <1 year old) to <5 years (for adults). The reproductive number estimates ranged from 0.24 in the Netherlands (during 1933–2007) to 4.3 in China in 2012. We found a limited number of publications and many high TB burden settings were not represented. Certain features of TB dynamics, such as slow transmission, complicated parameter estimation, require novel methods. Additional efforts to estimate these parameters for TB are needed so that we can monitor and evaluate interventions designed to achieve TB elimination.

A comprehensive meta-analysis study was performed to estimate the reliable national prevalence and molecular epidemiology of amoebiasis in Iran. Nine English and Persian databases were searched to achieve the relevant studies. Pooled estimates were generated and meta-regression was performed. We identified 71 eligible articles involving 330 930 subjects from 25 provinces to be included in the final analysis. Moreover, 17 studies compromising 462 polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive isolates performed molecular analysis to inter-species differentiation. The pooled prevalence of Entamoeba infection among Iranian population was about 1% (95% CI 0.8–2.0%). Moreover, regarding Human Development Index (HDI), a higher prevalence was observed in undeveloped provinces. Out of 462 PCR-positive isolates, 83% (95% CI 69–94%) and 12% (95% CI 3–24%) were Entamoeba dispar, Entamoeba histolytica, respectively. In subgroup analysis based on molecular results, in general, population prevalence of Entamoeba dispar and E. histolytica were 91% (95% CI 80–99%) and 7%, (95% CI 0–19%), respectively, while prevalence of these species in patients with gastrointestinal disorders were 75% (95% CI 45–96%) and 18% (95% CI 1–43%), respectively. Our findings indicate the low burden of amoebiasis in Iran. E. dispar, that is mostly non-pathogenic, was identified as most prevalent species. Nevertheless, we suggest more public health interventions in areas with lower HDI.

Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) has been used to model nationwide tuberculosis (TB) incidence in other countries. This study aimed to characterise monthly TB notification rate in China. Monthly TB notification rate from 2005 to 2017 was used. Time-series analysis was based on a SARIMA model and a hybrid model of SARIMA-generalised regression neural network (GRNN) model. A decreasing trend (3.17% per years, P < 0.01) and seasonal variation of TB notification rate were found from 2005 to 2016 in China, with a predominant peak in spring. A SARIMA model of ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 was identified. The mean error rate of the single SARIMA model and the SARIMA–GRNN combination model was 6.07% and 2.56%, and the determination coefficient was 0.73 and 0.94, respectively. The better performance of the SARIMA–GRNN combination model was further confirmed with the forecasting dataset (2017). TB is a seasonal disease in China, with a predominant peak in spring, and the trend of TB decreased by 3.17% per year. The SARIMA–GRNN model was more effective than the widely used SARIMA model at predicting TB incidence.

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is a defective RNA virus that depends on the presence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) for the creation of new virions and propagation of the infection to hepatocytes. Chronic infection with HDV is usually associated with a worsening of HBV infection, leading more frequently to cirrhosis, increased risk of liver decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence. In spite of a progressive declining prevalence of both acute and chronic HDV infection observed over several years, mainly due to increased global health policies and mass vaccination against HBV, several European countries have more recently observed stable HDV prevalence mainly due to migrants from non-European countries. Persistent HDV replication has been widely demonstrated as associated with cirrhosis development and, as a consequence, development of liver decompensation and occurrence of HCC. Several treatment options have been attempted with poor results in terms of HDV eradication and improvement of long-term prognosis. A global effort is deemed urgent to enhance the models already existing as well as to learn more about HDV infection and correlated tumourigenesis mechanisms.

During emerging disease outbreaks, public health, emergency management officials and decision-makers increasingly rely on epidemiological models to forecast outbreak progression and determine the best response to health crisis needs. Outbreak response strategies derived from such modelling may include pharmaceutical distribution, immunisation campaigns, social distancing, prophylactic pharmaceuticals, medical care, bed surge, security and other requirements. Infectious disease modelling estimates are unavoidably subject to multiple interpretations, and full understanding of a model's limitations may be lost when provided from the disease modeller to public health practitioner to government policymaker. We review epidemiological models created for diseases which are of greatest concern for public health protection. Such diseases, whether transmitted from person-to-person (Ebola, influenza, smallpox), via direct exposure (anthrax), or food and waterborne exposure (cholera, typhoid) may cause severe illness and death in a large population. We examine disease-specific models to determine best practices characterising infectious disease outbreaks and facilitating emergency response and implementation of public health policy and disease control measures.

Selective pressure exerted by the widespread use of antibacterial drugs is accelerating the development of resistant bacterial populations. The purpose of this scoping review was to summarise the range of studies that use dynamic models to analyse the problem of bacterial resistance in relation to antibacterial use in human and animal populations. A comprehensive search of the peer-reviewed literature was performed and non-duplicate articles (n = 1486) were screened in several stages. Charting questions were used to extract information from the articles included in the final subset (n = 81). Most studies (86%) represent the system of interest with an aggregate model; individual-based models are constructed in only seven articles. There are few examples of inter-host models outside of human healthcare (41%) and community settings (38%). Resistance is modelled for a non-specific bacterial organism and/or antibiotic in 40% and 74% of the included articles, respectively. Interventions with implications for antibacterial use were investigated in 67 articles and included changes to total antibiotic consumption, strategies for drug management and shifts in category/class use. The quality of documentation related to model assumptions and uncertainty varies considerably across this subset of articles. There is substantial room to improve the transparency of reporting in the antibacterial resistance modelling literature as is recommended by best practice guidelines.

In this retrospective study, we describe and analyse Salmonella data from four livestock species in Great Britain between 1983 and 2014, focusing on Salmonella Typhimurium. A total of 96 044 Salmonella isolates were obtained during the study period. S. Typhimurium was the predominant serovar isolated from cattle and pigs and represented 40.7% (18 455/45 336) and 58.3% (4495/7709) of isolates from these species respectively, while it only accounted for 6.7% (2114/31 492) of chicken isolates and 8.1% (926/11 507) of turkey isolates. Over the study period, DT104 was the most common phage type in all four species; however, DT104 peaked in occurrence between 1995 and 1999, but is currently rare.

Monophasic strains of S. Typhimurium represented less than 3% of all Salmonella isolates in cattle and chickens in 2014, but accounted for 10.4% of all turkey isolates and 39.0% of all pig isolates in the same year.

Salmonella isolates were tested for their in vitro susceptibility to 16 antimicrobials. Antimicrobial resistance of S. Typhimurium isolates is largely influenced by the dominance of specific phage types at a certain time, which are commonly associated with particular resistance patterns. Changes in resistance patterns over time were analysed and compared between species.

This study set out to identify and analyse trends and seasonal variations of monthly global reported cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). It also made a prediction based on the reported and extrapolated into the future by forecasting the trend. Finally, the study assessed contributions of various risk factors in the reported cases. The motivation for this study is that MERS-CoV remains among the list of blueprint priority and potential pandemic diseases globally. Yet, there is a paucity of empirical literature examining trends and seasonality as the available evidence is generally descriptive and anecdotal. The study is a time series analysis using monthly global reported cases of MERS-CoV by the World Health Organisation between January 2015 and January 2018. We decomposed the series into seasonal, irregular and trend components and identified patterns, smoothened series, generated predictions and employed forecasting techniques based on linear regression. We assessed contributions of various risk factors in MERS-CoV cases over time. Successive months of the MERS-CoV cases suggest a significant decreasing trend (P = 0.026 for monthly series and P = 0.047 for Quarterly series). The MERS-CoV cases are forecast to wane by end 2018. Seasonality component of the cases oscillated below or above the baseline (the centred moving average), but no association with the series over time was noted. The results revealed contributions of risk factors such as camel contact, male, old age and being from Saudi Arabia and Middle East regions to the overall reported cases of MERS-CoV. The trend component and several risk factors for global MERS-CoV cases, including camel contact, male, age and geography/region significantly affected the series. Our statistical models appear to suggest significant predictive capacity and the findings may well inform healthcare practitioners and policymakers about the underlying dynamics that produced the globally reported MERS-CoV cases.

Historical enquiry into diseases with morbidity or mortality predilections for particular demographic groups can permit clarification of their emergence, endemicity, and epidemicity. During community-wide outbreaks of hepatitis A in the pre-vaccine era, clinical attack rates were higher among juveniles rather than adults. In community-wide hepatitis E outbreaks, past and present, mortality rates have been most pronounced among pregnant women. Examination for these characteristic predilections in reports of jaundice outbreaks in the USA traces the emergence of hepatitis A and also of hepatitis E to the closing three decades of the 19th century. Thereafter, outbreaks of hepatitis A burgeoned, whereas those of hepatitis E abated. There were, in addition, community-wide outbreaks that bore features of neither hepatitis A nor E; they occurred before the 1870s. The American Civil War antedated that period. If hepatitis A had yet to establish endemicity, then it would not underlie the jaundice epidemic that was widespread during the war. Such an assessment may be revised, however, with the discovery of more extant outbreak reports.

The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) conducts population-based surveillance for Campylobacter infection. For 2010 through 2015, we compared patients with Campylobacter jejuni with patients with infections caused by other Campylobacter species. Campylobacter coli patients were more often >40 years of age (OR = 1·4), Asian (OR = 2·3), or Black (OR = 1·7), and more likely to live in an urban area (OR = 1·2), report international travel (OR = 1·5), and have infection in autumn or winter (OR = 1·2). Campylobacter upsaliensis patients were more likely female (OR = 1·6), Hispanic (OR = 1·6), have a blood isolate (OR = 2·8), and have an infection in autumn or winter (OR = 1·7). Campylobacter lari patients were more likely to be >40 years of age (OR = 2·9) and have an infection in autumn or winter (OR = 1·7). Campylobacter fetus patients were more likely male (OR = 3·1), hospitalized (OR = 3·5), and have a blood isolate (OR = 44·1). International travel was associated with antimicrobial-resistant C. jejuni (OR = 12·5) and C. coli (OR = 12) infections. Species-level data are useful in understanding epidemiology, sources, and resistance of infections.

We investigated the predictors of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) treatment in severe hospitalised influenza cases and the association between antiviral treatment and mortality. An observational epidemiological study was carried out in Catalonia (Spain) during 2010–2016 in patients aged ⩾18 years. Severe hospitalised cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza requiring hospitalisation were included. We collected demographic, virological and clinical characteristics. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratio (aOR). We included 1727 hospitalised patients, of whom 1577 (91.3%) received NAI. Receiving NAI ⩽48 h after onset of clinical symptoms (aOR 0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22–0.63), ⩽3 days (aOR 0.49, 95% CI 0.30–0.79) and ⩽5 days (aOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.32–0.79) was associated with a reduction in deaths. In patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) (595; 34.5%), treatment ⩽48 h (aOR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14–0.74), ⩽3 days (aOR 0.44, 95% CI 0.20–0.97) and ⩽5 days (aOR 0.45, 95% CI 0.22–0.96) was associated with a reduction in deaths. Receiving treatment >5 days after onset of clinical symptoms was not associated with the reduction in deaths in hospitalised patients or those admitted to the ICU. NAI treatment of hospitalised patients with severe confirmed influenza was effective in avoiding death, mainly when administered ⩽48 h after symptom onset, but also when no more than 5 days had elapsed.

Estimates of the incubation period for Q fever vary substantially between different reviews and expert advice documents. We systematically reviewed and quality appraised the literature to provide an evidence-based estimate of the incubation period of the Q fever by the aerosolised infection route. Medline (OVIDSP) and EMBASE were searched with the search limited to human studies and English language. Eligible studies included persons with symptomatic, acute Q fever, and defined exposure to Coxiella burnetti. After review of 7115 titles and abstracts, 320 records were screened at full-text level. Of these, 23 studies contained potentially useful data and were quality assessed, with eight studies (with 403 individual cases where the derivation of incubation period was possible) being of sufficient quality and providing individual-level data to produce a pooled summary. We found a median incubation period of 18 days, with 95% of cases expected to occur between 7 and 32 days after exposure.

Giardia duodenalis is the most common intestinal parasite of humans in the USA, but the risk factors for sporadic (non-outbreak) giardiasis are not well described. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Colorado and Minnesota public health departments conducted a case-control study to assess risk factors for sporadic giardiasis in the USA. Cases (N = 199) were patients with non-outbreak-associated laboratory-confirmed Giardia infection in Colorado and Minnesota, and controls (N = 381) were matched by age and site. Identified risk factors included international travel (aOR = 13.9; 95% CI 4.9–39.8), drinking water from a river, lake, stream, or spring (aOR = 6.5; 95% CI 2.0–20.6), swimming in a natural body of water (aOR = 3.3; 95% CI 1.5–7.0), male–male sexual behaviour (aOR = 45.7; 95% CI 5.8–362.0), having contact with children in diapers (aOR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.01–2.6), taking antibiotics (aOR = 2.5; 95% CI 1.2–5.0) and having a chronic gastrointestinal condition (aOR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–3.0). Eating raw produce was inversely associated with infection (aOR = 0.2; 95% CI 0.1–0.7). Our results highlight the diversity of risk factors for sporadic giardiasis and the importance of non-international-travel-associated risk factors, particularly those involving person-to-person transmission. Prevention measures should focus on reducing risks associated with diaper handling, sexual contact, swimming in untreated water, and drinking untreated water.

This study analyses the epidemiologic, clinical and molecular findings of all culture-confirmed cases of listeriosis notified from 2010 to 2015 in the Tel Aviv District, which is known to have high rates of listeriosis. All clinical isolates of Listeria monocytogenes were subtyped using two-enzyme pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. During the studied period, 102 cases of listeriosis were notified, including 23 pregnancy-associated cases (23%). Among 79 non-pregnancy-associated cases, 18 had neuro-invasive disease (21%). There were 26 deaths associated with the disease. Using molecular identification, we found a number of clusters of identical bacterial clones, which pointed to possible sources of infection. The high rates of morbidity and mortality resulting from listeriosis, as well as the diverse ways of infection demonstrated in this study, accentuate the need to boost public health actions, in order to raise awareness and better control high-risk contamination routes.

Leprosy is a granulomatous disease, infectious and transmissible, which affects the skin and peripheral nerves, having Mycobacterium leprae as causative agent. The manifestation of this disease causes cutaneous lesions, peripheral neuropathies and, in more extreme cases, may generate deformities and disabilities in affected individuals. Patents were identified using the descriptor ‘leprosy’ and code A61K of the international patent classification, which indicates only products that meet human needs. The analysis was made using the WIPO, ESPACENET and USPTO databases, until the month of September 2016. Through this review, we found a variety of in vitro, pre-clinical and clinical studies relating to the treatment of leprosy with different types of compounds and forms of administration. New treatment proposals should include pain reduction capabilities, prevention or limitation of the appearance of cutaneous lesions, as well as prevention of the progression of the disease to more severe stages that may lead to loss of function or potentiate the individual's immune response to the M. leprae bacillus in order to prevent bacterial spread. We concluded that any patents developed with natural products were not found in the treatment of leprosy. All the deposited products were synthetic origin, mostly tested in humans and of varied forms of administration.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a well-known cause of acute hepatitis. Immunocompromised subjects, including liver transplant recipients, are considered to be at risk for HEV infection, which occasionally follows a chronic course. The diagnosis of HEV infection in these patients must be based on HEV RNA testing, as serology has variable performance. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of HEV infection in liver transplant recipients in Greece by means of HEV RNA testing. Liver transplant recipients followed in the sole transplant centre in Greece were prospectively included. HEV RNA was detected by real-time RT-PCR. Positive samples were further analysed using a nested reverse transcription RT-PCR kit, which amplifies a 137-nucleotide sequence within the ORF2/ORF3 overlapping region to detect the HEV genotype and perform phylogenetic analysis. The mean age of the included patients (n = 76) was 54 years. The most common indication for liver transplantation was viral hepatitis (57%). The majority of the patients (75%) received a calcineurin inhibitor as part of their immunosuppressive regimen and had normal liver enzymes. HEV RNA was found positive in only 1/76 (1.3%) patient. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the sequence clustered into the HEV genotype 3 clade. This patient experienced an acute hepatitis flare, which nonetheless did not become chronic. The prevalence of HEV infection in liver transplant recipients in Greece is similar (1.3%) to that reported previously in other countries. Transplant physicians should be aware of this condition and its associated consequences.

To identify the predictive and prognostic factors associated with ampicillin-resistant enterococcal bacteraemia, we retrospectively reviewed demographic, microbiological and clinical data of patients attending the Kyoto University Hospital, Japan, between 2009 and 2015. Logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the predictive and prognostic factors, respectively. In total, 235 episodes of enterococcal bacteraemia were identified. As ampicillin susceptibility was uniform for Enterococcus faecalis isolates and almost all ampicillin-resistant isolates were E. faecium, bacteraemia due to these species was investigated separately. E. faecalis and E. faecium accounted for 41.7% (98/235) and 48.1% (113/235) of the isolates, respectively and 91.2% of all E. faecium were ampicillin resistant. Nosocomial E. faecium bacteraemia acquisition (odds ratio (OR), 13.6; 95% confidence intervals, 3.16–58.3) was associated with ampicillin-resistant isolates. Bacteraemia from an unknown source (hazard ratio (HR), 2.91; 95% CI 1.36–6.21) and an increased Pitt bacteraemia score (PBS) (HR, 1.36; 95% CI 1.21–1.52) were associated with 30-day mortality in E. faecium infections. Likewise, bacteraemia from an unknown source (HR, 4.17; 95% CI 1.25–13.9) and increased PBS (HR, 1.27; 95% CI 1.09–1.48) were associated with 30-day mortality in patients with E. faecalis bacteraemia. The empirical therapeutic administration of glycopeptides is recommended for patients with bacteraemia from an unknown source in whom severe E. faecium bacteraemia is suspected.

Currently policies enabling cattle herds to regain Official Tuberculosis Free (OTF) status after a bovine tuberculosis (bTB) herd incident vary between individual parts of the British Isles from requiring only one negative single comparative intradermal tuberculin test (SCITT) herd test when bTB infection is not confirmed to needing two consecutively negative SCITT herd tests after disclosure of two or more reactors, irrespective of bTB confirmation. This study used Kaplan–Meier curves and univariable and multivariable Cox Proportional Hazard models to evaluate the effect of the number of SCITT reactors and bTB confirmation on the risk of future bTB herd incident utilising data extracted from the national animal health database in Northern Ireland. Based on multivariable analyses the risk of a future bTB herd incident was positively associated with the number of SCITT reactors identified during the incident period (hazard ratio = 1.861 in incidents >5 SCITT reactors compared to incidents with only one SCITT reactor; P < 0.001), but not with bTB confirmation. These findings suggest that the probability of residual bTB infection in a herd increases with an increasing number of SCITT reactors disclosed during a bTB herd incident. It was concluded that bTB herd incidents with multiple SCITT reactors should be subjected to stricter control measures irrespective of bTB infection confirmation status.

Incubation period for non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) infections is generally reported as 6–72 h despite numerous reports of foodborne NTS outbreaks with median incubation periods >3 days. We summarised 16 years of Minnesota foodborne NTS outbreaks to better estimate the expected range of incubation periods for NTS infections. Of the 1517 NTS outbreak cases, 725 had enough data to calculate a precise incubation period. The median incubation period was 45 h; 77 (11%) cases had incubations ⩽12 h and 211 (29%) cases had incubations >72 h. Incubation period length varied by outbreak vehicle type, Salmonella serotype and outbreak setting. Based on our data, a more accurate description would be that the incubation of NTS infection is usually from 12 to 96 h, that incubations in >96 to 144 h (>4 to 6-day) range are not unusual and that incubations from 7 to 9 days and occasionally longer also occur.