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The Polish transition to democracy : a game-theoretic approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 July 2009

Jakub Zielinski
Jakub Zielinski
Affiliation:
University of Chicago(Chicago).
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Abstract

This article present a gametheoretic model of the transition to democracy in Poland. The events in Poland are conceptualized as a strategic game between a government and an opposition. The transition is modeled as a sequence of intentional decisions about political arrangements. During the 1980s Poland went through three such arrangements: dictatorship, broadened dictatorship, and democracy. Each one is understood as a game-theoretic equilibrium. The transition between two political arrangements is explained as a shift from one equilibrium to another. These shifts occurred because the probability of Soviet intervention diminished over time, changing incentives for the government and the opposition.

Cet article présente, selon la théorie des jeux, un modèle de transition démocratique en Pologne. Les événements en Pologne sont considérés comme un jeu de stratégic entre un gouvernement et son opposition. La transition est modèlisée comme unc chaîne de décisions intentionnelles concernant les dispositifs politiques. Durant les années 80, la Pologne a traversé trois états : dictature, dictature élargie et démocratie. Chacun est considéré comme un équilibre théorique. Le passage de l'un à l'autre est vu comme le déplacement d'un équilibre à l'autre. Ces mutations se sont faites à mesure que la probabilité d'intervention soviétique diminuait, changeant les incitations du gouvernement et de l'opposition.

Der Übergang zur Demokratie in Polen wird hier im Rahmen eines theoretischen Spielmodells beschrieben. Die polnischen Ereignisse werden zu einem strategischen Spiel zwischen Regierung und Opposition. Der Übergang zu einer Folge vorsätzlicher Entscheidungen über politische Vereinbarungen. Im Laufe der 1980er Jahre kannte Polen drei Vereinbarungen dieser Art: Diktatur, erweiterte Diktatur und Demokratie. Jede einzelne versteht sich als ein theoretisches fiktives Gleichgewicht. Der Übergang zwischen zwei politischen Vereinbarungen wird als ein Wechsel von einem Gleichgewicht zum anderen verstanden. Diese Veränderungen wurden umso deutlicher als die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer russischen Einmischung abnahm, die die Ziele für Regierung und Opposition veränderte.

Type
Threats and bluffs in East European transitions
Information
European Journal of Sociology / Archives Européennes de Sociologie , Volume 36 , Issue 1 , May 1995 , pp. 135 - 158
Copyright
Copyright © Archives Européenes de Sociology 1995

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