The paper analyses the achievements and problems stemming from Nye Bevan’s model of a tax funded national health care system, on the assumption that only so could equity be achieved. The evidence shows that indeed the National Health Service (NHS) scores highly on equity, so vindicating Bevan’s vision. The price paid is that fiscal crises are the norm for the NHS, with ever more centralisation, intensive regulation and performance management. Successive reorganisations represent attempts to square the circle – to combine the strengths of Bevan’s model and those of a less hierarchic system – but have so far failed to deliver and can be expected to continue.

Amidst the NHS’s (National Health Service) success lies its major weakness, although one that Klein overlooks in his reflections on the NHS as it approaches 70. The focus on, and investment in, curing ill-health has been at the expense of attending to the public’s overall health and well-being. This preoccupation poses a greater threat to the NHS’s future than privatisation. Despite the weakness having been diagnosed decades ago, redressing the imbalance has proved stubbornly hard to achieve. Rhetoric has not been translated into reality. Yet, we may be on the cusp of a tipping point where in order to ensure a sustainable NHS, and one that is capable of meeting the 21st century challenges facing it, there is a renewed and overdue interest in promoting health and well-being in communities. But for this to succeed, the NHS will need to embrace its bete noire, local government.

There are several advantages of Bevan’s design, such as progressive funding through taxation and equity of access regardless of income, that we must not lose sight of as we celebrate the NHS’s (National Health Service) 70th birthday. However, there remain historical fault-lines dividing health and social care. The challenge is how to preserve equity if a more radical reform were implemented to fully integrate both the funding and delivery of health and social care. Funding from national taxation with defined entitlements could preserve both equity in funding and geographical equity. This does not solve the issue of the pull to the centre, which has been a feature of the NHS throughout its history, according to Klein. This will require a fundamental shift in the use of data. Data must be wrenched from the hands of the regulators and put back in the hands of those who generate them for the purposes of improvement.

The creation of the National Health Service (NHS) marked a radical break with the past, making health care universally available on the basis of need rather than means. The NHS was conceived during wartime emergency and has had to survive further regular crises to reach its 70th year, but it now faces challenges that are unprecedented in scale and there are doubts about its ability to continue in its present form. Resources have not increased with need, and the NHS can no longer function as a comprehensive service during periods of peak demand. Policymakers look for solutions in service rearrangements, new technologies, quality improvement initiatives and alternative funding arrangements; meanwhile, chronic lack of capacity is taking a predictable toll on patient care and staff morale. The NHS has become a formidably resilient institution, but securing its future may take as great a collective effort as the one that created it.

As the National Health Service (NHS) turns 70, it bears comparison with another universal system celebrating an anniversary this year: Canada’s 50-year-old medicare model. Each system is iconically popular, and each revolves around a profession-state accommodation. Both the popularity and the central axis of each system have been tested by external shocks in the form of periodic fiscal cycles of investment and austerity, and internal stresses generating organizational cycles of centralization and decentralization. In addition, the English NHS has undergone periodic bursts of major policy change, which have arguably moved the system closer to the Canadian single-payer model.

The British National Health Service (NHS) celebrates its 70th birthday on 5 July 2018. This paper examines this anniversary through the lens of previous anniversaries, exploring two strands of political debates and NHS documents. It draws on the basic ‘multiple streams model’ of Kingdon that argues that an issue reaches the agenda when the policy window opens to allow the coupling of three independent streams – policy, problem and politics. It is found that there appears to be some discontinuity in the problem stream; some periods of relative consensus and sharp political differences in the politics stream; and sharp variations over time in the policy stream. While it is clear that there have been both continuities and discontinuities in the problem, politics and policy streams over the past 70 years, they have rarely come together to result in a policy that has taken it off the agenda.

In Belgium and France, physicians can charge a supplementary fee on top of the tariff set by the mandatory basic health insurance scheme. In both countries, the supplementary fee system is under pressure because of financial sustainability concerns and a lack of added value for the patient. Expenditure on supplementary fees is increasing much faster than total health expenditure. So far, measures taken to curb this trend have not been successful. For certain categories of physicians, supplementary fees represent one-third of total income. For patients, however, the added value of supplementary fees is not that clear. Supplementary fees can buy comfort and access to physicians who refuse to treat patients who are not willing to pay supplementary fees. Perceived quality of care plays an important role in patients’ willingness to pay supplementary fees. Today, there is no evidence that physicians who charge supplementary fees provide better quality of care than physicians who do not. However, linking supplementary fees to objectively proven quality of care and limiting access to top quality care to patients able and willing to pay supplementary fees might not be socially acceptable in many countries. Our conclusion is that supplementary physicians’ fees are not sustainable.

The long-term care system in China relies heavily on informal care provided by family members. This study makes projections on the demand for informal care among Chinese older people between 2015 and 2035 and quantifies the level of long-term care resources needed to meet their needs. The data come from longitudinal information in a nationally representative sample, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013. The macrosimulation approach (PSSRU model) and the Markov approach are integrated into one Bayesian modelling framework. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to capture parameter uncertainty. We project that the demand for informal care will increase from 41.3 million people (95% CI: 39.9–42.7) in 2015 to 82.6 million people (95% CI: 78.3–86.9) in 2035. The long-term care system faces unbalanced pressure of demand for informal care from different groups of older people. The projected demand is sensitive to changes in older people’s disability trajectory and the availability of formal care provided by the government, but less sensitive to an increase in singleton households in the future. We discuss possible policy measures to alleviate the mounting pressure on the demand for informal care.

In several OECD countries the percentage of elderly in long-term care institutions has been declining as a result of ageing-in-place. However, due to the rapid ageing of population in the next decades future demand for institutional care is likely to increase. In this paper we perform a scenario analysis to examine the potential impact of these two opposite trends on the demand for institutional elderly care in the Netherlands. We find that the demand for institutional care first declines as a result of the expected increase in the number of low-need elderly that age-in-place. This effect is strong at first but then peters out. After this first period the effect of the demographic trend takes over, resulting in an increase in demand for institutional care. We argue that the observed trends are likely to result in a growing mismatch between demand and supply of institutional care. Whereas the current stock of institutional care is primarily focussed on low-need (residential) care, future demand will increasingly consist of high-need (nursing home) care for people with cognitive as well as somatic disabilities. We discuss several policy options to reduce the expected mismatch between supply and demand for institutional care.

Although eliminating financial barriers to care is a necessary condition for improving access to health services, it is not sufficient. Given the contrasting health systems with regard to financing and organization of health insurance in the United States and Canada, there is a long history of comparing these countries. We extend the empirical studies on the Canadian and US health systems by comparing access to ambulatory care as measured by hospitalization rates for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) in Montreal and New York City. We find that, in New York, ACSC rates were more than twice as high (12.6 per 1000 population) as in Montreal (4.8 per 1000 population). After controlling for age, sex, and number of diagnoses, significant differences in ACSC rates are present in both cities, but are more pronounced in New York. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that universal, first-dollar health insurance coverage has contributed to lower ACSC rates in Montreal than New York. However, Montreal’s surprisingly low ACSC rate calls for further research.

There is a requirement for economic evaluation of health technologies seeking public funding across Europe. Changes to the organisation and delivery of health services, including changes to health policy, are not covered by such appraisals. These changes also have consequences for National Health Service (NHS) funds, yet undergo no mandatory cost-effectiveness assessment. The focus on health technologies may have occurred because larger-scale service changes pose more complex challenges to evaluators. This paper discusses the principal challenges faced when performing economic evaluations of changes to the organisation and delivery of health services and provides recommendations for overcoming them. The five principal challenges identified are as follows: undertaking ex-ante evaluation; evaluating impacts in terms of quality-adjusted life years; assessing costs and opportunity costs; accounting for spillover effects; and generalisability. Of these challenges, methods for estimating the impact on costs and quality-adjusted life years are those most in need of development. Methods are available for ex-ante evaluation, assessing opportunity costs and examining generalisability. However, these are rarely applied in practice. The general principles of assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions should be applied to all NHS spending, not just that involving health technologies. Advancements in this area have the potential to improve the allocation of scarce NHS resources.