Investing in a new perennial crop variety involves an irreversible commitment of capital and generates an uncertain return stream. As a result, the decision to adopt a new variety includes a significant real option value. Waiting for returns to rise above this real option causes a delay in adoption because of economic hysteresis. This study tests for hysteresis in the adoption of wine grape varieties using a sample of district-level data from the state of California. The empirical results show a significant hysteretic effect in wine grape investment, which might be reduced by activities that smooth earnings over time.

The 1986 U.S. Grain Quality Improvement Act introduced an explicit, economic purpose for grades—that they transmit information about end use value—but provided little guidance about what factors to include in grades. We determine which quality characteristics best reflect the processed value of U.S. corn in the case of a Japanese wet miller. Foreign material is the only grade factor closely related to processed value, but a large number of nongrade attributes, many of which reflect the intrinsic properties of corn, are found to vary substantially across shipments and to provide extensive information about value. Recommendations for U.S. grades are made.

Dual-purpose winter wheat production is an important economic enterprise in the southern Great Plains of the United States. Because of the complex interactions involved in producing wheat grain and beef gain from a single crop, stocking density is an important decision. The objective of the research is to determine the stocking density that maximizes expected net returns from dual-purpose winter wheat production. Statistical tests rejected a conventional linear-response plateau function in favor of a linear-response stochastic plateau function. The optimal stocking density of 1.48 steers/ha (0.60 steers/acre) is 19% greater with a stochastic than with a nonstochastic plateau.

This paper develops and illustrates the application of a procedure to evaluate and compare the cost effectiveness of alternative crop insurance products for cotton in terms of their effect on expected producer net returns and the variation of net returns. Farm unit-level cotton yields and state-level price distributions are estimated by a multivariate nonnormal parametric modeling procedure and used to simulate the net returns to alternative crop insurance products over a 10-year planning horizon. The ranking of alternative insurance products using third-degree stochastic dominance is presented for Texas cotton producers.

Questions have been raised regarding the economic costs of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United States. This analysis examines how welfare changes are measured and argues that they must be decomposed by groups. Producers with animals quarantined and slaughtered because of FMD measure their welfare change using lost sales. Producers not quarantined measure their welfare change using producer surplus. The change in national sales revenue is accurate when the supply elasticity is low. Welfare changes for consumers also must be decomposed because the change in aggregate consumer surplus hides important shifts in welfare among groups of consumers.

This study employs correlation relationships to measure the strength of trade-offs between business and financial risks as a representation of the strategic capital adjustment process. Under different business risk measures based on varying lengths of historical farm income data, results suggest that farmers tend to adopt a myopic perspective when contemplating risk-balancing plans. Cross-sectional regression results for two-time period models covering the decade of the 1980s and 1990s yielded important implications. The liquidity-constrained environment of the 1980s emphasizes the combination of risk-balancing plans, specialization, and market revenue-enhancing strategies. In the 1990s, risk balancing becomes compatible with risk-reducing crop diversification and insurance protection plans.

Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USD A and two private agencies. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors were highly correlated and unbiased. The relative forecast accuracy of the agencies varied by crop and month. For corn, USDA's forecasts ranked as most accurate of the three agencies in all periods except for August during the recent period and improved most markedly as harvest progressed. For soybeans, forecast errors were very similar, with the private agencies ranking as most accurate for August and September and making largest relative improvements for August during the recent period. The USDA forecasts were dominant for October and November. Our findings identify several patterns of relative forecast accuracy that have implications for private and public decision makers.

This study determines the relative effects of price, cattle quality, and feeding performance factors on profit per head for fed cattle marketed via a grid structure. Two different data sets of cattle that were marketed in two different grid pricing systems are used in the analysis with comparisons of results made between grids. Grid base price and feeder cattle price are the most important determinants of profit over time in both grids. However, considering only nonprice variables, the cumulative quality of cattle in a pen is also an important profit determinant.

The proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas would join the world's two largest processed orange producing regions: Brazil and the United States. Because the United States currently imposes a sizeable tariff on imported processed orange products, there is concern by U.S. orange growers over possible adverse effects resulting from tariff elimination. A model of the world processed orange market is developed as a spatial equilibrium model with implicit supply functions based on the dynamic behavior of orange production. The model is used to estimate the impact of U.S. tariff elimination on U.S. production, grower and processor prices, and imports. The results suggest a sizeable price impact on U.S. producers if the tariff is eliminated.

Since the farm financial crisis of the 1980s, Farm Credit System banks continue to merge and consolidate to enhance competitiveness. Two mixed-integer programming models of AgChoice Agricultural Credit Association (ACA), a recently merged ACA in Pennsylvania, were developed to determine the optimal number, location, and territory of branches. The approach suggests useful information can be determined regarding the reconfiguration process after bank mergers, especially given the fact that the current AgChoice ACA configuration is available for comparison purposes.

Shrimp farming in Thailand has had disastrous effects on the environment in the past, which has prompted a government ban on shrimp production in inland areas. However, a new low-salinity shrimp farming system has developed that seems to have fewer disease and environmental problems than previous systems but competes with rice production for land and water resources. The present study found that shrimp farming exhibits increasing returns to scale and is much more profitable than rice farming, which offers opportunities for rice farmers to improve their incomes through diversification. No evidence was found for external environmental effects of shrimp production on rice production or vice versa. A total ban on shrimp production in rice farming areas does not seem justified, although further analysis on the environmental effects of this farming system is warranted.

Treatment of time in travel cost models has been a source of contention among economists. The debate persists because welfare estimates, which are the principal objectives of these studies, are highly sensitive to the treatment of time. The present study examines the dual role of on-site time using evidence from two wilderness areas in Alabama. The empirical results comply with the theoretical expectation that on-site time is both a source of utility and cost. The exclusion of on-site time from demand functions results in biased parameter estimates. In particular, it yields smaller own-price coefficients and higher welfare estimates.

Fats and oils play a prominent role in U.S. dietary patterns. Recent concerns over the negative health consequences associated with fats and oils have led many to suspect structural change in demand conditions. Our analysis considers short run (monthly) demand relationships for edible fats and oils. In that monthly quantities of fats and oils are likely to be relatively fixed, an inverse almost ideal demand system specification is used. A smooth transition function is used to model a switching inverse almost ideal demand system that assesses short-run demand conditions for edible fats and oils in the United States. The results suggest that short-run demand conditions for fats and oils experienced a gradual structural shift that began in the late 1980s or early 1990s and persisted into the mid-1990s. Although this shift generally made price flexibilities more elastic, differences in scale flexibilities across regimes were modest in most cases. The results suggest that decreases in marginal valuations for most fats and oils in response to consumption increases are rather small. Scale flexibilities are relatively close to –1, suggesting near homothetic preferences for fats and oils.

Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice varieties offer U.S. rice producers a powerful tool for control of red rice infestations. However, improved weed control can shorten crop rotations and boost yields, resulting in expanded rice production and lower domestic market prices. Declining market returns diminish the benefits of HR rice adoption and substantially reduce net returns for nonadopters. More competitive prices increase U.S. rice exports, causing a slight decline in world rice prices. The dependence of the rice marketing loan program on world prices prevents loan deficiency payments from adequately offsetting producers' market revenue losses. U.S. consumers gain from lower rice prices.