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Relative quiescence within the Jiashi swarm in Xinjiang, China: an application of the ETAS point process model

Part of: Stochastic processes Geophysics Inference from stochastic processes Geophysics (general)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Li Ma  and
Jiancang Zhuang
Li Ma*
Affiliation:
China Seismological Bureau
Jiancang Zhuang*
Affiliation:
China Seismological Bureau
*
1Postal address: Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, PO Box 166, Beijing 100036, China. Email: mali@seis.ac.cn
2Postal address: Dept Statistical Science, Graduate University for Advanced studies, 4–5–6 Minami Azabu, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 106–8659, Japan. Email: zhuangjc@ism.ac.jp
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Abstract

This paper uses the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) point process model to study certain seismicity features of the Jiashi swarm of certain earthquakes, investigating in particular whether there is relative quiescence prior to the quite big events within the Jiashi sequence. The seven earthquake sequences studied occurred in the region of Jiashi, south of Tianshan Mountain, Xinjiang, China. The particular ETAS model that is developed is consistent with the reality of seismic activity. The various features of Jiashi swarm activity can be described as focusing in different stages. There is obvious precursory quiescence prior to most big events with Ms ≥ 6.0 within the Jiashi swarm. Thus, checking for relative quiescence can be use for earthquake prediction.

Keywords

Earthquake sequencequiescenceOmori formulaETAS point process model

MSC classification

Primary: 86A15: Seismology
Secondary: 60G55: Point processes 62M10: Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc.
Type
Models and statistics in seismology
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 38 , Issue A: Probability, Statistics and Seismology , 2001 , pp. 213 - 221
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 2001 

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References

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