The aim of this paper is to study genealogical processes in a geographically structured population with weak migration. The coalescence time for sampled genes from different colonies diverges to infinity as the migration rates among colonies are close to zero. We investigate the moment generating functions of the coalescence time, the number of segregating sites and the number of allele types in sampled genes when there is low migration. Employing a perturbation method, we obtain a system of recurrence relations for the approximate solutions of these moment generating functions and solve them in some cases.

We study the genealogical structure of samples from a population for which any given generation is made up of direct descendants from several previous generations. These occur in nature when there are seed banks or egg banks allowing an individual to leave offspring several generations in the future. We show how this temporal structure in the reproduction mechanism causes a decrease in the coalescence rate. We also investigate the effects of age-dependent neutral mutations. Our main result gives weak convergence of the scaled ancestral process, with the usual diffusion scaling, to a coalescent process which is equivalent to a time-changed version of Kingman's coalescent.

We consider I fluid queues in parallel. Each fluid queue has a deterministic inflow with a constant rate. At a random instant subject to a Poisson process, random amounts of fluids are simultaneously reduced. The requested amounts for the reduction are subject to a general I-dimensional distribution. The queues with inventories that are smaller than the requests are emptied. Stochastic upper bounds are considered for the stationary distribution of the joint buffer contents. Our major interest is in finding exponential product-form bounds, which turn out to have the appropriate decay rates with respect to certain linear combinations of buffer contents.

In first-passage percolation (FPP) models, the passage time Tℓ from the origin to the point ℓeℓ satisfies f(ℓ) := ETℓ = μℓ + o(ℓ½+ε), where μ ∊ (0,∞) denotes the time constant. Yet, for lattice FPP, it is not known rigorously that f(ℓ) is eventually monotonically increasing. Here, for the Poisson-based Euclidean FPP of Howard and Newman (Prob. Theory Relat. Fields108 (1997), 153–170), we prove an explicit formula for f′(ℓ). In all dimensions, for certain values of the model's only parameter we have f′(ℓ) ≥ C > 0 for large ℓ.

This paper analyzes players’ long-run behavior in an evolutionary model with time-varying mutations under both uniform and local interaction rules. It is shown that a risk-dominant Nash equilibrium in a 2 × 2 coordination game would emerge as the long-run equilibrium if and only if mutation rates do not decrease to zero too fast under both interaction methods. The convergence rates of the dynamic system under both interaction rules are also derived. We find that the dynamic system with local matching may not converge faster than that with uniform matching.

A generalisation of the classical general stochastic epidemic within a closed, homogeneously mixing population is considered, in which the infectious periods of infectives follow i.i.d. random variables having an arbitrary but specified distribution. The asymptotic behaviour of the total size distribution for the epidemic as the initial numbers of susceptibles and infectives tend to infinity is investigated by generalising the construction of Sellke and reducing the problem to a boundary crossing problem for sums of independent random variables.

Scherk's graph is a subgraph of the three-dimensional lattice. It was shown by Markvorsen, McGuinness and Thomassen (1992) that Scherk's graph is transient. Consider the Bernoulli bond percolation in Scherk's graph. We prove that the infinite cluster is transient for p > ½ and is recurrent for p < ½. This implies the well-known result of Grimmett, Kesten and Zhang (1993) on the transience of the infinite cluster of the Bernoulli bond percolation in the three-dimensional lattice for p > ½. On the other hand, Scherk's graph exhibits a new dichotomy in the supercritical region.

We study a service system in which, in each service period, the server performs the current set B of tasks as a batch, taking time s(B), where the function s(·) is subadditive. A natural definition of ‘traffic intensity under congestion’ in this setting is ρ := limt→∞t-1Es (all tasks arriving during time [0,t]). We show that ρ > 1 and a finite mean of individual service times are necessary and sufficient to imply stability of the system. A key observation is that the numbers of arrivals during successive service periods form a Markov chain {An}, enabling us to apply classical regenerative techniques and to express the stationary distribution of the process in terms of the stationary distribution of {An}.

A new procedure that generates the transient solution of the first moment of the state of a Markovian queueing network with state-dependent arrivals, services, and routeing is developed. The procedure involves defining a partial differential equation that relates an approximate multivariate cumulant generating function to the intensity functions of the network. The partial differential equation then yields a set of ordinary differential equations which are numerically solved to obtain the first moment.

We examine how the binomial distribution B(n,p) arises as the distribution Sn = ∑i=1nXi of an arbitrary sequence of Bernoulli variables. It is shown that B(n,p) arises in infinitely many ways as the distribution of dependent and non-identical Bernoulli variables, and arises uniquely as that of independent Bernoulli variables. A number of illustrative examples are given. The cases B(2,p) and B(3,p) are completely analyzed to bring out some of the intrinsic properties of the binomial distribution. The conditions under which Sn follows B(n,p), given that Sn-1 is not necessarily a binomial variable, are investigated. Several natural characterizations of B(n,p), including one which relates the binomial distributions and the Poisson process, are also given. These results and characterizations lead to a better understanding of the nature of the binomial distribution and enhance the utility.

The variation of the state vectors p(t) = (pi(t)) of a continuous-time homogeneous Markov system with fixed size is examined. A specific time t0 after which the size order of the elements pi(t) becomes stable provides a criterion of the system's convergence rate. A method is developed to find t0 and a quickly evaluated lower bound for t0. This method is based on the geometric characteristics and the volumes of the attainable structures. Moreover, a condition concerning the selection of starting vectors p(0) is given so that the vector functions p(t) retain the same size order for every time greater than a given time t.

Sankoff and Ferretti (1996) introduced several models of the evolution of chromosome size by reciprocal translocations, where for simplicity they ignored the existence of centromeres. However, when they compared the models to data on six organisms they found that their short chromosomes were too short, and their long chromosomes were too long. Here, we consider a generalization of their proportional model with explicit chromosome centromeres and introduce fitness functions based on recombination probabilities and on the length of the longest chromosome arm. We find a simple formula for the stationary distribution for our model which fits the data on chromosome lengths in many, but not all, species.

Daryl Daley has kindly invited me to write some prefatory words, autobiographical in character, to the collection of articles which follows. I am very happy to do this, but first let me express my appreciation of the efforts which Daryl, Peter Thomson, and the contributors have put into the making of this volume. It is a wonderful tribute, which I greatly appreciate. May I also take the opportunity to acknowledge the help of all of those colleagues, whether or not they have contributed directly to this volume, whose support, professional advice, knowledge, competence and companionship have made my years as statistician and tyro seismologist extremely rewarding. To all such, a big thank you.

In this paper, the instantaneous availability of a system maintained under periodic inspection is investigated using random walk models. Two cases are considered. In the first model, the system is repaired or modified and it is assumed to be as good as new upon periodic inspection and maintenance. In the second model, the system is not modified after the inspection if the system is still working, and the condition of the system is assumed to be the same as that before the inspection. For both models the failures only can be found through the inspection. Perfect repair or replacement of a failed system is assumed to be carried out, but the time it takes can be constant or of a random length. The relationship between this problem and the random walk model in a two-dimensional plane is described. Several new results are also shown.

A carousel is an automated warehousing system consisting of a large number of drawers rotating in a closed loop. In this paper, we study the travel time needed to pick a list of items when the carousel operates under the nearest item heuristic. We find a closed form expression for the distribution and all moments of the travel time. We also analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the travel time when the number of items tends to infinity. All results follow from probabilistic arguments based on properties of uniform order statistics.

David Vere-Jones's interest in mathematical and statistical education was triggered in the early 1960s during his visits to Russia when he met leading mathematicians who were deeply involved in these areas as well as in their own research. Through the 1970s and 1980s David's involvement in education grew in New Zealand where he became influential in the developments in mathematics and statistics teaching, especially at school level. By the early 1990s he had become very involved in the Education Committee of the International Statistical Institute (ISI) and had a key role in the Third International Conference on Teaching Statistics (ICOTS-3) in Dunedin, 1990. This was soon followed by the pivotal role he played in the establishment of the International Association for Statistical Education (IASE). This paper describes the formative influences underlying David's involvement in statistical education and his influence on the growth of the IASE.

Optical mapping is a new technique to generate restriction maps of DNA easily and quickly. DNA restriction maps can be aligned by comparing corresponding restriction fragment lengths. To relate, organize, and analyse these maps it is necessary to rapidly compare maps. The issue of the statistical significance of approximately matching maps then becomes central, as in BLAST with sequence scoring. In this paper, we study the approximation to the distribution of counts of matched regions of specified length when comparing two DNA restriction maps. Distributional results are given to enable us to compute p-values and hence to determine whether or not the two restriction maps are related. The key tool used is the Chen-Stein method of Poisson approximation. Certain open problems are described.

We solve the following three optimal stopping problems for different kinds of options, based on the Black-Scholes model of stock fluctuations. (i) The perpetual lookback American option for the running maximum of the stock price during the life of the option. This problem is more difficult than the closely related one for the Russian option, and we show that for a class of utility functions the free boundary is governed by a nonlinear ordinary differential equation. (ii) A new type of stock option, for a company, where the company provides a guaranteed minimum as an added incentive in case the market appreciation of the stock is low, thereby making the option more attractive to the employee. We show that the value of this option is given by solving a nonalgebraic equation. (iii) A new call option for the option buyer who is risk-averse and gets to choose, a priori, a fixed constant l as a ‘hedge’ on a possible downturn of the stock price, where the buyer gets the maximum of l and the price at any exercise time. We show that the optimal policy depends on the ratio of x/l, where x is the current stock price.