We study a Markovian agent-based model (MABM) in this paper. Each agent is endowed with a local state that changes over time as the agent interacts with its neighbours. The neighbourhood structure is given by a graph. Recently, Simon, Taylor, and Kiss [40] used the automorphisms of the underlying graph to generate a lumpable partition of the joint state space, ensuring Markovianness of the lumped process for binary dynamics. However, many large random graphs tend to become asymmetric, rendering the automorphism-based lumping approach ineffective as a tool of model reduction. In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a lumping method based on a notion of local symmetry, which compares only local neighbourhoods of vertices. Since local symmetry only ensures approximate lumpability, we quantify the approximation error by means of the Kullback–Leibler divergence rate between the original Markov chain and a lifted Markov chain. We prove the approximation error decreases monotonically. The connections to fibrations of graphs are also discussed.

We study the average nearest-neighbour degree a(k) of vertices with degree k. In many real-world networks with power-law degree distribution, a(k) falls off with k, a property ascribed to the constraint that any two vertices are connected by at most one edge. We show that a(k) indeed decays with k in three simple random graph models with power-law degrees: the erased configuration model, the rank-1 inhomogeneous random graph, and the hyperbolic random graph. We find that in the large-network limit for all three null models, a(k) starts to decay beyond $n^{(\tau-2)/(\tau-1)}$ and then settles on a power law $a(k)\sim k^{\tau-3}$, with $\tau$ the degree exponent.

For a Brownian bridge from 0 to y, we prove that the mean of the first exit time from the interval $\left( -h,h \right),h>0$ , behaves as ${\mathrm{O}}(h^2)$ when $h \downarrow 0$ . Similar behaviour is also seen to hold for the three-dimensional Bessel bridge. For the Brownian bridge and three-dimensional Bessel bridge, this mean of the first exit time has a puzzling representation in terms of the Kolmogorov distribution. The result regarding the Brownian bridge is applied to provide a detailed proof of an estimate needed by Walsh to determine the convergence of the binomial tree scheme for European options.

Asset allocation with a derivative security is studied in a hidden, Markovian regime-switching, economy using filtering theory and the martingale approach. A generalized delta-hedged ratio and a generalized elasticity of an option are introduced to accommodate the presence of the information state process and the derivative security. Malliavin calculus is applied to derive a solution for a general utility function which includes an exponential utility, a power utility, and a logarithmic utility. A compact solution is obtained for a logarithmic utility. Some economic implications of the solutions are discussed.

This paper is devoted to studying the long-term behaviour of a continuous-time Markov chain that can be interpreted as a pair of linear birth processes which evolve with a competitive interaction; as a special case, they include the famous Lotka–Volterra interaction. Another example of our process is related to urn models with ball removal. We show that, with probability one, the process eventually escapes to infinity by sticking to the boundary in a rather unusual way.

The no restart random walk (NRRW) is a random network growth model driven by a random walk that builds the graph while moving on it, adding and connecting a new leaf node to the current position of the walker every s steps. We show a fundamental dichotomy in NRRW with respect to the parity of s: for ${s}=1$ we prove that the random walk is transient and non-leaf nodes have degrees bounded above by an exponential distribution; for s even we prove that the random walk is recurrent and non-leaf nodes have degrees bounded below by a power law distribution. These theoretical findings highlight and confirm the diverse and rich behaviour of NRRW observed empirically.

We introduce variance-optimal semi-static hedging strategies for a given contingent claim. To obtain a tractable formula for the expected squared hedging error and the optimal hedging strategy we use a Fourier approach in a multidimensional factor model. We apply the theory to set up a variance-optimal semi-static hedging strategy for a variance swap in the Heston model, which is affine, in the 3/2 model, which is not, and in a market model including jumps.

We consider decision problems with arbitrary action spaces, deterministic transitions, and infinite time horizon. In the usual setup when probability measures are countably additive, a general version of Kuhn’s theorem implies under fairly general conditions that for every mixed strategy of the decision maker there exists an equivalent behavior strategy. We examine to what extent this remains valid when probability measures are only assumed to be finitely additive. Under the classical approach of Dubins and Savage (2014), we prove the following statements: (1) If the action space is finite, every mixed strategy has an equivalent behavior strategy. (2) Even if the action space is infinite, at least one optimal mixed strategy has an equivalent behavior strategy. The approach by Dubins and Savage turns out to be essentially maximal: these two statements are no longer valid if we take any extension of their approach that considers all singleton plays.

We show that several machine learning estimators, including square-root least absolute shrinkage and selection and regularized logistic regression, can be represented as solutions to distributionally robust optimization problems. The associated uncertainty regions are based on suitably defined Wasserstein distances. Hence, our representations allow us to view regularization as a result of introducing an artificial adversary that perturbs the empirical distribution to account for out-of-sample effects in loss estimation. In addition, we introduce RWPI (robust Wasserstein profile inference), a novel inference methodology which extends the use of methods inspired by empirical likelihood to the setting of optimal transport costs (of which Wasserstein distances are a particular case). We use RWPI to show how to optimally select the size of uncertainty regions, and as a consequence we are able to choose regularization parameters for these machine learning estimators without the use of cross validation. Numerical experiments are also given to validate our theoretical findings.

Consider a random vector $\textbf{U}$ whose distribution function coincides in its upper tail with that of an Archimedean copula. We report the fact that the conditional distribution of $\textbf{U}$ , conditional on one of its components, has under a mild condition on the generator function independent upper tails, no matter what the unconditional tail behavior is. This finding is extended to Archimax copulas.

We obtain an asymptotic formula for the persistence probability in the positive real line of a random polynomial arising from evolutionary game theory. It corresponds to the probability that a multi-player two-strategy random evolutionary game has no internal equilibria. The key ingredient is to approximate the sequence of random polynomials indexed by their degrees by an appropriate centered stationary Gaussian process.

We consider a model of branching Brownian motion in which the usual spatially homogeneous branching and catalytic branching at a single point are simultaneously present. We establish the almost sure growth rates of population in certain time-dependent regions and as a consequence the first-order asymptotic behaviour of the rightmost particle.

In this paper, we analyse the set of all possible aggregate distributions of the sum of standard uniform random variables, a simply stated yet challenging problem in the literature of distributions with given margins. Our main results are obtained for two distinct cases. In the case of dimension two, we obtain four partial characterization results. For dimension greater than or equal to three, we obtain a full characterization of the set of aggregate distributions, which is the first complete characterization result of this type in the literature for any choice of continuous marginal distributions.

We study the impact of a random environment on lifetimes of coherent systems with dependent components. There are two combined sources of this dependence. One results from the dependence of the components of the coherent system operating in a deterministic environment and the other is due to dependence of components of the system sharing the same random environment. We provide different sets of sufficient conditions for the corresponding stochastic comparisons and consider various scenarios, namely, (i) two different (as a specific case, identical) coherent systems operate in the same random environment; (ii) two coherent systems operate in two different random environments; (iii) one of the coherent systems operates in a random environment and the other in a deterministic environment. Some examples are given to illustrate the proposed reasoning.