This paper examines risk factors for the development of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder
(PTSD), and its severity and chronicity, in a group of 217 young adults who survived a
shipping disaster in adolescence. The survivors were followed up 5 to 8 years after the
disaster. Risk factors examined fell into three main categories: pre-disaster child and family
vulnerability factors, including childhood psychopathology; objective and subjective
disaster-related experiences; and post-disaster factors, including results from screening
questionnaires administered 5 months post-disaster, coping mechanisms adopted subsequently,
life events, and availability of social supports. Developing PTSD following the
disaster was significantly associated with being female, with pre-disaster factors of learning
and psychological difficulties in the child and violence in the home, with severity of exposure
to the disaster, survivors' subjective appraisal of the experience, adjustment in the early post-disaster period, and life events and social supports subsequently. When all these factors were
considered together, measures of the degree of exposure to the disaster and of subjective
appraisal of life threat, and ratings of anxiety obtained 5 months post-disaster, best predicted
whether survivors developed PTSD. For those survivors who developed PTSD, its duration
and severity were best predicted not by objective and subjective disaster-related factors, but
by pre-disaster vulnerability factors of social, physical, and psychological difficulties in
childhood together with ratings of depression obtained 5 months post-disaster, and whether
survivors received post-disaster support at school. The implications of these findings are
considered for targeting assessment and intervention efforts at survivors most at risk of
developing difficulties in adjustment following similar traumatic experiences.