Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-mlc7c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T08:34:45.209Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Odd-Lot Transactions around the Turn of the Year and the January Effect

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2009

Abstract

Assuming that individual investors account for most odd-lot transactions, we examine oddlot purchases and sales around the turn of the year and find a pattern that is related to the well-known January effect in stock returns. A significant change in the ratio of odd-lot sales to odd-lot purchases occurs at the turn of the year, which supports the hypothesis that the January effect results from trading by individual investors. The trading patterns that we find are not due entirely to tax considerations.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 1992

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ariel, R. A.High Stock Returns before Holidays.” Journal of Finance, 45 (12 1990), 16111626.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Asquith, P., and Mullins, D.. “Equity Issues and Offering Dilution.” Journal of Financial Economics, 15 (01/02 1986), 6189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banz, R. W.The Relationship between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks.” Journal of Financial Economics, 9 (03 1981), 318.Google Scholar
Berges, A.; McConnell, J. J.; and Schlarbaum, G. G.. “The Turn-of-the-Year in Canada.” Journal of Finance, 39 (03 1984), 185192.Google Scholar
Bolster, P. J.; Lindsey, L. B.; and Mitrusi, A.. “Tax-Induced Trading: The Effect of the 1986 Tax Reform Act on Stock Market Activity.” Journal of Finance, 44 (06 1989), 327344.Google Scholar
Branch, B.A Tax Loss Trading Rule.” Journal of Business, 50 (07 1977), 198207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brauer, G. A., and Chang, E. C.. “Return Seasonality in Stocks and Their Underlying Assets: Tax Loss Selling Versus Information Explanations.” Review of Financial Studies, 3 (Summer 1990), 255280.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, P.; Keim, D. B.; Kleidon, A. W.; and Marsh, T. A.. “Stock Return Seasonality and the Tax-Loss Selling Hypothesis: Analysis of the Arguments and Australian Evidence.” Journal of Financial Economics, 12 (06 1983), 105128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, K. C.Can Tax-Loss Selling Explain the Journal Seasonal in Stock Returns?Journal of Finance, 41 (12 1986), 11151128.Google Scholar
Chang, E. C, and Pinegar, J. M.. “Return Seasonality and Tax-Loss Selling in the Market for Long-Term Government and Corporate Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics, 16 (12 1986), 391425.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Constantinides, G.Capital Market Equilibrium with Personal Tax. Econometrica, 51 (05 1983), 611636.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Constantinides, G.Optimal Stock Trading with Personal Taxes: Implications for Prices and the Abnormal January Returns.” Journal of Financial Economics, 13 (03 1984), 6590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corhay, A.; Hawawini, G.; and Michel, P.. “Seasonality in the Risk-Return Relationship: Some International Evidence.” Journal of Finance, 42 (03 1987), 4968.Google Scholar
De Bondt, W. F. M., and Thaler, R.. “Does the Stock Market Overreact?Journal of Finance, 40 (07 1985), 793805.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Bondt, W. F. M., and Thaler, R.. “Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonality.” Journal of Finance, 42 (07 1987), 557582.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dyl, E. A.Capital Gains Taxation and Year-End Stock Market Behavior.” Journal of Finance, 38 (03 1977), 6598.Google Scholar
Dyl, E. A.A State Preference Model of Capital Gains Taxation.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 14 (09 1979), 529536.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferris, S. P.; Haugen, R. A.; and Makhija, A. K.. “Predicting Contemporary Volume with Historic Volume at Differential Price Levels: Evidence Supporting the Disposition Effect.” Journal of Finance, 43 (07 1988), 677697.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Francis, J. C.Investments, 4th Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill (1986).Google Scholar
Givoly, D., and Ovadia, A.. “Year-End Tax-Induced Sales and Stock Market Seasonality.” Journal of Finance, 38 (03 1983), 171186.Google Scholar
Sachs, Goldman. Equities: Supply and Demand. Mimeo (1989).Google Scholar
Gultekin, M. N., and Gultekin, N. B.. “Stock Market Seasonality: International Evidence.” Journal of Financial Economics, 12 (12 1983), 469481.Google Scholar
Haugen, R. A., and Lakonishok, J.. The Incredible January Effect: The Stock Market's Unsolved Mystery. Homewood, IL: Don-Jones-Irwin (1988).Google Scholar
Ibbotson Associates. Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: 1988 Yearbook. Chicago, IL: Ibbotson Associates (1988).Google Scholar
Jones, C. P.; Pearce, D. K.; and Wilson, J. W.. “Can Tax-Loss Selling Explain the January Effect? A Note.” Journal of Finance, 42 (06 1987), 453461.Google Scholar
Jones, C. P.; Pearce, D. K.; and Wilson, J. W.. “An Analysis of the January Effect in Stocks and Interest Rates under Varying Monetary Regimes.” Journal of Financial Research, 12 (Winter 1989), 341354.Google Scholar
Kato, K., and Schallheim, J. S.. “Seasonal and Size Anomalies in the Japanese Stock Market.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 20 (06 1985), 1322.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keim, D. B.Size-Related Anomalies and Stock Market Seasonality: Further Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Financial Economics, 12 (06 1983), 1232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keim, D. B.Trading Patterns, Bid Ask Spreads and Estimated Security Returns: The Case of Common Stocks at Calendar Turning Points.” Journal of Financial Economics, 18 (11 1989), 7597.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keim, D. B., and Stambaugh, R. F.. “Predicting Returns in the Stock and Bond Markets.” Journal of Financial Economics, 17 (12 1986), 357390.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lakonishok, J., and Maberly, E.. “The Weekend Effect: Trading Patterns of Individual and Institutional Investors.” Journal of Finance, 45 (03 1990), 231243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lakonishok, J., and Smidt, S.. “Volume and Turn-of-the-Year Behavior.” Journal of Financial Economics, 13 (09 1984), 535556.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lakonishok, J., and Smidt, S.. “Volume for Winners and Losers: Taxation and Other Motives for Stock Trading.” Journal of Finance, 41 (09 1986), 951974.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lakonishok, J., and Smidt, S.. “Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective.” Review of Financial Studies, 1 (Winter 1988), 403425.Google Scholar
McEnally, R. W.Stock Price Changes Induced by Tax Switching.” Review of Business and Economic Research, 12 (Fall 1976), 4754.Google Scholar
Mikkelson, W., and Partch, M.. “Stock Price Effects and Costs of Secondary Distributions.” Journal of Financial Economics, 14 (06 1985), 165194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Officer, R. R.Seasonality in Australian and Capital Markets: Market Efficiency and Empirical Issues.” Journal of Financial Economics, 2 (03 1975), 2951.Google Scholar
Pettengill, G. N.A Non-Tax Cause of the January Effect?Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, 25 (Summer 1986), 1533.Google Scholar
Pettengill, G. N.Holiday Closings and Security Returns.” Journal of Financial Research, 12 (Spring 1989), 5767.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pettengill, G. N., and Jordon, B. D.. “A Comprehensive Examination of Volume Effects and Seasonality in Daily Security Returns.” Journal of Financial Research, 11 (Spring 1988), 5770.Google Scholar
Reinganum, M. R.Misspecification of Capital Asset Pricing: Empirical Anomalies Based on Earnings Yield and Market Values.” Journal of Financial Economics, 9 (03 1981), 1946.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinganum, M. R.The Anomalous Stock Market Behavior of Small Firms in January: Empirical Tests for Tax-Loss Selling Effects.” Journal of Financial Economics, 12 (07 1983), 89104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ritter, J. R.The Buying and Selling Behavior of Individual Investors at the Turn of the Year.” Journal of Finance, 43 (07 1988), 701717.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ritter, J. R., and Chopra, N.. “Portfolio Rebalancing and the Turn-of-the-Year Effect.” Journal of Finance, 44 (03 1989), 149166.Google Scholar
Roll, R.Vas ist das? The Turn of the Year Effect and the Return of Premia of Small Firms.” Journal of Portfolio Management, 9 (Winter 1983), 1828.Google Scholar
Rozeff, M. S. “The Tax-Loss Selling Hypothesis: New Evidence from Share Shifts.” Unpubl. Paper, Univ. of Iowa (1985a).Google Scholar
Rozeff, M. S. “The December Effect in Stock Returns and the Tax-Loss Selling Hypothesis.” Unpubl. Paper, Univ. of Iowa (1985b).Google Scholar
Rozeff, M. S., and Kinney, W. R. Jr, “Capital Market Seasonality: The Case of Stock Returns.” Journal of Financial Economics, 3 (10 1976), 379402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, P. H.Personal Income Taxes and the January Effect: Small Firm Stock Returns before the War Revenue Act of 1917: A Note.” Journal of Finance, 40 (03 1985), 333343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, P. H. “Tax Loss Selling in Common Stocks.” Unpubl. Ph.D. Diss., Univ. of Chicago (1988).Google Scholar
Seyhun, H. N.The January Effect and Aggregate Insider Trading.” Journal of Finance, 43 (03 1988), 129141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shefrin, H., and Statman, M.. “The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Finance, 40 (07 1985), 777791.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slemrod, J.The Effect of Capital Gains Taxation on Year-End Stock Market Behavior.” National Tax Journal, 35 (03 1982), 6977.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tinic, S. M., and West, R. R.. “Risk and Return: January vs. The Rest of the Year.” Journal of Financial Economics, 13 (12 1984), 561574.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wachtel, S. B.Certain Observations on Seasonal Movements in Stock Prices.” Journal of Business, 15 (04 1942), 184193.Google Scholar
Williams, J. “Financial Anomalies under Rational Expectations: A Theory of the Annual Size and Related Effects.” Unpubl. Paper, New York Univ. (1987).Google Scholar