Using microlevel panel data and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we study the effect of political uncertainty on household stock market participation. We find that households significantly reduce their participation and reallocate funds to safer assets during periods of increased political uncertainty prior to gubernatorial elections. The decline in participation is related to households’ response to elevated asset risk and their incentive to hedge increased labor income risk. In situations where uncertainty remains high after elections, pre-election reduction in participation is only partially reversed.

Recent studies suggest that the underperformance of IPOs in the post-1970 sample may be a small sample effect or “Peso problem.” That is, IPO underperformance may result from observing too few star performers ex post than were expected ex ante. We develop a model of IPO performance that captures this intuition by allowing returns to be drawn from mixtures of outstanding, benchmark, or poor performing states. We estimate the model under the null of no ex ante average IPO underperformance and construct small sample distributions of various statistics measuring IPO relative performance. We find that small sample biases are extremely unlikely to account for the magnitude of the post-1970 IPO underperformance observed in data.

This paper studies the relationship between real interest rates and housing using a microeconomic approach. The primary impact of interest rates is on the demand side. The partial equilibrium, comparative static model of demand behavior presented is based on intertemporal preference maximization subject to a multiperiod income constraint. The model is always in terms of real prices and interest rates and operates in discrete time. Consumer preferences are represente by a smooth utility function which depends on two kinds of goods, housing and other nondurables. This study is couched in a neoclassical framework with all markets assumed perfect unless otherwise specified. With this approach the theory of housing and interest rates becomes part of standard consumer theory, rather than being based on inappropriate present value considerations.

The question of whether security return distributions have a finite or an infinite variance has been debated for many years. The possibility that the security return-generating process actually has an infinite variance is particularly vexing since it implies that all statistical techniques and theoretical frameworks utilizing the second (or higher) moment are invalid. While this is clearly not a disaster—alternatives do exist—much of the work which has been done in the field of finance has assumed the existence of the second moment. It is, therefore, important to determine whether or not the security return distribution actually has a finite variance.

A theoretical model capable of supporting a rigorous analysis of portfolio selection in financial intermediaries appeared only recently. In the absence of a suitable theoretical framework, the limitations of maximizing behavior as an explanation of the selection of asset and liability structures in this class of firms were obscured. Discussions bearing on this question usually focused on the structure of one or the other side of intermediary balance sheets and gave little attention to the effects of these structures on the risk associated with their equity.

The suitability of complex financial products for household investors is an important issue in light of consumer financial protection. The U.S. Dodd–Frank Act, for instance, mandates that distributors check suitability when selling structured products to retail investors. However, little empirical evidence exists on such transactions. Using data from Hong Kong, we find that investors purchase 8% more structured products, on average, when the suitability is not checked. The effect of suitability checks is more pronounced for less financially literate investors. Moreover, investors tend to buy products with lower risk-adjusted returns when product suitability is not checked.

In this article, we examine the effect of social trust on local bias. Our evidence suggests that institutional investors located in high-trust regions of the United States exhibit lower local bias. Moreover, we find that high-trust investors are better diversified, suggesting that trust helps accomplish greater diversification. The results are not due to firm, demographic, or local economic characteristics. Additional analysis reveals that the documented informational advantage in local holdings exists only in low-trust regions. We show that this finding is consistent with a trust explanation.

Higher first-year post-issue returns are associated with a significantly higher probability of follow-on equity issuance over the next 5 years. This result holds when we control for pre-issue returns and other factors known to affect the probability of equity issuance. The result is most consistent with the market feedback hypothesis that a high post-issue return encourages managers to increase the firm’s investment because it implies that, in the market’s view, the marginal return to the project is high.

We examine the impact of managerial ability on the shareholder tax sensitivity of dividends. We find that managerial ability increases the sensitivity of dividends to the dividend tax penalty. In addition, the positive association between managerial ability and the shareholder tax sensitivity of dividends decreases in institutional ownership. Further, managerial ability increases the shareholder tax sensitivity of the substitution of dividends with share repurchases. Finally, evidence from tax reforms reveals that high ability managers are more responsive to a reduction in dividend tax penalty than to an increase. We conclude that managerial ability influences the formation of tax-efficient dividend policies.

Many financial institutions employ outside portfolio managers to manage part or all of their investable assets. It is well recognized that outside portfolio managers are unwilling to share security information with each other or with the centralized decision maker and this in general will lead to sub-optimal portfolios. In this paper, we derive an implementable set of rules under which a central decision maker can make optimal decisions without requiring decentralized decision makers to reveal estimates of security returns. Furthermore, we derive conditions under which these rules hold and when they do not hold.

This paper examines the effect of real-world, investor-level investment constraints, including several that have not been studied before, on hedge fund performance and its persistence. Using a large consolidated database, we demonstrate that hedge fund performance persistence is significantly reduced when rebalancing rules reflect fund size restrictions and liquidity constraints but remains statistically significant at higher rebalancing frequencies. Hypothetical investor portfolios that incorporate additional minimum diversification constraints, minimum investment requirements, and focus on open funds suggest that the performance and its persistence documented in earlier studies of hedge funds is not easily exploitable, especially by large investors.

Negative abnormal stock returns of about 1% occur near record dates of stock splits. Further, the lower the returns, the more positive are ex-date returns and when-issued premiums. A possible explanation of these related phenomena is that trading hindrances associated with record dates create trading inconvenience that is reflected in lower prices near record dates. In turn, anomalous positive ex-date returns arise in part from the abnormally low prices of unsplit shares caused by the negative record date returns.

Recently, a debate has developed in both the theoretical and applied statistical literature regarding the appropriateness of various techniques in analytical models with limited (particularly, 0-1) dependent variables. In financial research, limited dependent variable models usually arise in one of two ways:

1. classification (or discrimination)--assigning observations to discrete, a priori determined groups, or

2. regression--relating a qualitative dependent variable to one or more independent variables (which may or may not be qualitative).

This paper presents a model in which managers of firms that are takeover targets use debt-financed share repurchase to bond themselves to reduce perquisite consumption and increase investment in the firm. The resulting value increase makes the firm a less attractive target. The optimal level of share repurchase is the result of a trade-off between the benefit of a reduced probability of takeover and the cost of an increased probability of bankruptcy. Unlike earlier explanations of defensive repurchases, which are based on information signalling or control of voting rights, this explanation is independent of the extent of shareholding by target management.

Over the past years the beta coefficient has been widely used as a measure of systematic risk in investment and portfolio analysis. The validity of using the beta coefficient as the proper measure of systematic risk is dependent upon the assumption that the beta coefficient is stationary over time. Unfortunately, this assumption has been challenged by a number of empirical studies which have found the beta coefficient to be unstable over time. Examples of such empirical investigations are those documented by Blume [4], Levy [12], Levitz [11], Baesel [2], Altman, Jacquillat, and Levasseur [1], and Roenfelt, Griepentrong, and Pflaum [16]. Most recently, Fabozzi and Francis [9] reported that some security beta coefficients tend to be random over time. Their findings also support the regression tendency of the beta coefficients towards the mean over time, as found by Blume [4]. Thus, because the beta coefficient is changing over time, the use of the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method in investment and portfolio analysis will yield an inefficient estimate of systematic risk. Furthermore, the OLS estimates of security and portfolio residual risks will be influenced by the variability of beta coefficient. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the variability of the beta coefficient and portfolio residual risk, and hence to provide a real picture of the process of portfolio diversification under the condition of beta nonstationarity. It is shown that the use of the OLS method to estimate security and portfolio residual risks will produce an incorrect conclusion that larger residual risks tend to be associated with higher variability in the beta coefficient.

We study at-the-market (ATM) equity offerings, which are direct share issuances sold in the secondary market that forgo underwriters and “dribble-out” shares over time rather than raising them all at once. Enabled in 2008, their use has increased dramatically, and in 2016, their incidence and total proceeds were, respectively, 63% and 26% of those for seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). Determinants of firms’ choice between ATMs and SEOs are consistent with the costly certification hypothesis of Chemmanur and Fulghieri (1994). We also find that 65% of ATM proceeds are used to stockpile cash compared to 84% of SEO proceeds.

This paper investigates the effect of closed overnight exchanges on option prices. During the trading day, asset prices follow the literature's standard affine model that allows for stochastic volatility and random jumps. Independently, the overnight asset price process is modeled by a single jump. We find that the overnight component reduces the variation in the random jump process significantly. However, neither the random jumps nor the overnight jumps alone are able to empirically describe all features of option prices. We conclude that both random jumps during the day and overnight jumps are important in explaining option prices, where the latter account for about one quarter of total jump risk.

The first major study of industry effects in market returns was performed by King [2]. He used principal components analysis and clustering techniques on a sample of 63 companies chosen from six 2-digit industries based on Security and Exchange Commission codes. SEC codes are similar to the Standard Industrial Classification codes defined by the U.S. Bureau of the Budget [4]. SIC codes are 4-digit codes based on the principal end product of the firm. They are chosen so that, as the lowest order digit is removed, the companies are aggregated into broader but still similar groups.

We explore gender differences in performance in a comprehensive sample of venture capital investments in the United States. Investments by female venture capital investors have significantly lower success rates than investments by their male colleagues when controlling for personal characteristics, including employment and educational history, and portfolio companies’ characteristics. The gender differences in investment outcomes are not due to female investors being less skilled but, rather, are largely attributable to female investors receiving less benefit from the track records of their colleagues. Performance differences disappear in older, larger firms and firms with other female investors. This supports the view that formal feedback mechanisms and hierarchies are potentially useful in ameliorating the female performance gap.

We investigate the relation between a firm’s product warranty level and its leverage. We find that leverage relates negatively to the warranty level and that this relation is robust to controls for endogeneity and self-selection into offering warranties. The negative warranty-leverage relation obtains only in the subsample of firms in the manufacturing industries. We also show that firms with warranties have the lowest debt levels, firms without warranties but operating in industries where other firms offer warranties on average carry higher debt, and firms in industries where no firm offers a warranty have the highest debt levels.