Practitioners allocate substantial resources to technical analysis whereas academic theories of market efficiency rule out technical trading profitability. We study this long-standing puzzle by applying a diverse set of machine learning algorithms. The results show that an investor can find profitable technical trading rules using past prices, and that this out-of-sample profitability decreases through time, showing that markets have become more efficient over time. In addition, we find that the evolutionary genetic algorithm’s attitude in not shying away from erroneous predictions gives it an edge in building profitable strategies compared to the strict loss-minimization-focused machine learning algorithms.

Exchange rate models with uncertain and incomplete information predict that investors focus on a small set of fundamentals that changes frequently over time. We design a model selection rule that captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. Out-of-sample tests show that the forecasts made by this rule significantly beat a random walk for 5 out of 10 currencies. Furthermore, the currency forecasts generate meaningful investment profits. We demonstrate that the strong performance of the model selection rule is driven by time-varying weights attached to a small set of fundamentals, in line with theory.

This paper examines the use, determinants, and impact of anonymous orders in a market where disclosure of broker identity in the trading screen is voluntary. We find that most trading occurs nonanonymously, contrary to prior literature that suggests liquidity gravitates to anonymous markets. By strategically using anonymity when it is beneficial, traders reduce their execution costs. Traders select anonymity based on various factors including order source, order size and aggressiveness, time of day, liquidity, and expected execution costs. Finally, we report how anonymous orders affect market quality and discuss implications for market design.

This study investigates market price integration by testing per-share trade execution price or cost (TEP/C) differentials for matched intraday trades for a sample of Canadian shares cross-listed in the U.S. The TSE trade price advantage over the entire time period changed significantly after both the TSE's own minimum quotation increment reduction and that of its U.S. competitors. We show that the differential TEP/C is equivalent to the international effective spread differential and that market quality comparisons, which benchmark using the National instead of the International BBO, need to compare both national effective half-spread and midspread differences. Our cross-sectional regression results support our predictions that TEP/C differentials can be explained by differences in national midspreads and by ex ante proxies of national effective half-spreads. The TEP/C differentials vary inversely with increasing levels of our measure of signed market nonfragmentation.

This study examines initial public offering contract choice decisions. In best-efforts offerings, minimum sales constraints allow issuers to precommit to withdraw the offering if a fixed minimum number of shares is not sold. In firm-commitment offerings, the over-allotment option allows the underwriter to increase sales when demand is strong. Two theories of contract choice–Benveniste and Spindt (1989) and Ritter's (1987) extension of Rock (1986)–offer predictions about the role of these contract features. We find that the 1977–1982 evidence is consistent with Benveniste and Spindt (1989). The evidence is less supportive of the Ritter (1987) hypothesis that minimum sales constraints serve to reduce the winner's curse of the riskier issuers.

The search for an economically sound procedure for estimating an appropriate rate of return on equity consistent with the Supreme Court's ruling in the Hope case [13] has led many economists, financial experts, and public service commissions to estimate the rate of return on equity with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) (see [30], [19], and [21]). The popularity of the CAPM in regulatory proceedings was reported by Harrington [15] who, in a survey of public service commissions, found that 38 states were considering or had seen the CAPM used, two jurisdictions preferred the CAPM, Oregon required the CAPM, and South Carolina would require the CAPM in all future cases. Hence, given the popularity of the CAPM and the tremendous economic impact that outcomes of regulatory proceedings have on the financial well-being of both the regulated firm and the consumer, it is critical that if the CAPM is used in regulatory proceedings that it be applied in the best manner possible and that any limitations associated with the CAPM be recognized fully.

Virtually all new state and local governmental bond issues are purchased initially by an underwriter, or syndicate of underwriters, who in turn resells the bonds to investors. The underwriter attempts to sell the bonds for an amount which exceeds his purchase price. The difference is underwriter spread. Of course the probability that the underwriter will actually receive the planned spread is directly related to the yields at which the reoffering is attempted. The purpose of this study is to test and analyze the relationship between reoffering yields for new municipal bond issues and the spread which the underwriter plans to receive. This study differs from previous studies in method of analysis, and in being the first such study to examine underwriter behavior in the bond market.

Greenmail payments are widely viewed as actions designed by managers to perpetuate their tenure in office. This view, which suggests that greenmail prohibitions would enhance shareholder wealth, receives mixed empirical support in this paper. The average market reaction to charter amendments prohibiting greenmail payments is weakly negative, suggesting there is a value to maintaining managerial flexibility. Nonlinear maximum likelihood estimation, however, reveals a strong positive correlation between the market reaction and the firm's abnormal stock price runup over the three months just prior to the proxy mailing date. For the subsample of firms with a relatively large prior runup, the precommitment not to pay greenmail is value enhancing. If the prior runup reflects takeover rumors, then this evidence is consistent with the proposition that greenmail payments amidst takeover speculations are value decreasing.

Sven Grassman's [2] empirical observation that most exports from small open economies are denominated in the currency of the exporter stimulated much theorizing on the currency denomination of international trade contracts. As Rao and Magee [6] note, the problem is nontrivial only if exchange risk exists and the two traditional hedging techniques, forward exchange and international borrowing and lending, are too costly to be employed. With international contracting, both parties typically agree on the quantity to be traded and on a price fixed in one of the two currencies at the time the letter of credit is agreed upon; thus, apart from commercial risk the only source of uncertainty is the real value of the future nominal payment. The degree to which this risk is borne by the importer or the exporter depends, in part, on the currency of denomination.

Recent theoretical models suggest debt and dividends can serve as substitute free cash flow control or signaling devices. I examine share price responses to announcements of straight debt issues and test whether there are systematic differences between low and high dividend payout firms. Share price response is significantly positive for low growth-low dividend payout firms, and is negatively related to cross-sectional dividend payout. The results support arguments that debt and dividends are substitutes. The results also support arguments that debt provides free cash flow or signaling benefits, but suggest the benefits are significant only for firms with low levels of substitutes. I also document that low growth-low dividend payout firms enter capital markets less frequently, but find no relation between share price response and this frequency.

Beginning in the 1990s, firms often continue to trade on the major national exchanges after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. For bankruptcies filed from 1993–2003, we find that the more negative the filing period price reaction, the more favorable the immediate post-filing returns, on average. This reversal is not attributable to bid-ask bounce, it holds after controlling for other factors associated with post-filing returns, and it appears more attributable to the activities of large traders than to small traders. Supplementary tests reveal that the pattern of post-filing returns differs significantly for bankruptcies filed in bull versus bear markets. Bankruptcies filed during the 1993 to 1999 bull market enjoy substantial but short-lived reversals averaging one-third of the filing period price plunge. These reversals are inconsistent with efficient assimilation of the bankruptcy information. In contrast, we find no evidence of post-filing reversals for bankruptcies filed from 2000 to 2003.

In Mar. 2010, Japan’s financial regulator implemented the country’s first legislation concerning the disclosure of director compensation for named individuals. Using the first publicly available data for Japanese executives, we document direct evidence on the level, structure, and mechanisms of chief executive officer (CEO) compensation in Japan and perform a matched-sample comparison between Japan and the United States. In contrast to the findings of recent studies showing that international differentials in CEO pay have largely disappeared since the mid-2000s, our results show strikingly large differences between the Japanese and American systems that are difficult to explain by differences in conventional incentive contracts.

The idea that various characteristics of financial contracts and institutions can be explained as a rational response to problems created by information asymmetries has received a great deal of attention recently. A central theme of the literature in this area is that while moral hazard may hamper the direct transfer of information between market participants, information may be conveyed indirectly through the actions of market participants. For example, the characteristics of the insurance contract purchased may convey information as to riskiness of the insured. Recognition of the possible effects of information asymmetries has provided valuable insights into the role of financial intermediaries and the characteristics of the contracts they offer. In this paper we apply this literature to an analysis of the market for bank loan commitments. Through our analysis we are able to explain the use of various payment options such as fees and compensating balance requirements associated with loan commitments. Extensions of our analysis into the pricing of other bank services are also explored.

We summarize and synthesize the results of the articles in this symposium issue on research in financial economics related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the articles, taken together, present evidence that the pandemic resulted in a distributional shock to capital allocation. The underlying mechanisms include accelerating technological shifts, government stimulus programs, and heterogeneous responses of investors and firms. We augment these articles with evidence on the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic on profitability, payout, investment, employment, and productivity across sectors.

We use proprietary transaction data on interest rate swaps to assess the effects of centralized trading, as mandated by Dodd–Frank, on market quality. Contracts with the most extensive centralized trading see liquidity metrics improve by between 12% and 19% relative to those of a control group. This is driven by a clear increase in competition between dealers, particularly in U.S. markets. Additionally, centralized trading has caused interdealer trading in EUR swap markets to migrate from the United States to Europe. This is consistent with swap dealers attempting to avoid being captured by the trade mandate in order to maintain market power.

The objective of this paper is to determine upper bounds of the potential savings that can be realized by the application of cash management optimization models. These upper bounds are found by simulation as the difference between the performance of a deterministic optimization model--which finds the optimal policy in hindsight--and the simulated performance of a hypothetical treasurer who uses simple heuristic cash management rules as informally practiced by many treasurers, based on prediction of random cash flows. The results of this analysis leave serious doubts as to profitability of cash management optimization models.

I propose a model in which the price of an option is partly determined by macro-finance variables. In an application using an index of current business conditions, the new model outperforms existing benchmarks in fitting underlying asset returns and in pricing options. The model performs particularly well when business conditions are deteriorating. Using the recent financial crisis as an out-of-sample experiment, the new model has option-pricing errors that are 18% below those of a nested 2-component volatility benchmark. Results are robust to using alternative business conditions proxies and comparing to different benchmark models.

In this paper, possible factors affecting the second-pass regression results in capital asset pricing are investigated in detail. First, the true functional form used to test the risk-return relation is determined by using Box and Cox's [2] generalized functional form technique. Secondly, Box and Cox's residual analysis and transformation technique are used to show the importance of the skewness effect in capital asset pricing. Finally, some other factors affecting the results of second-pass regression coefficient in capital asset pricing also are explored. From these analyses, it is found that the functional form, the skewness effect, and the change of market condition are the most important factors in affecting the empirical conclusions in testing the bias of composite performance measures and the risk-return relation.

This paper analyzes the relation between the capital structure of a firm and the tax benefits realized from the exercise of stock options. Theory suggests that firms with tax benefits from the exercise of stock options should carry less debt since tax benefits are a non-debt tax shield. We find that both long- and short-term debt ratios are negatively related to the size of tax benefits from option exercise. Moreover, one-year changes in long-term leverage are negatively related to changes in the number of options exercised. Such a relation does not exist for changes in short-term leverage. Finally, firms with option-related tax benefits tend to issue equity, with the net amount of equity issued an increasing function of these tax benefits.

This article presents a stochastic equilibrium model for environmental markets that allows us to study the characteristic properties of emission permit prices induced by the design of today’s cap-and-trade systems. We characterize emission permits as highly nonlinear contingent claims on economy-wide emissions and reveal their hybrid nature between investment and consumption assets. Our model makes predictions about the dynamics and volatility structure of emission permit prices, the forward price curve, and the implications for option pricing in this market. Empirical evidence from existing emissions markets shows that the model explains the stylized facts of emission permit prices and related derivatives.