The stress balance within an ice shelf is key to the resistance, or buttressing, it can provide and in part controls the rate of ice discharge from the upstream ice sheet. Unconfined ice shelves are widely assumed to provide no buttressing. However, theory and laboratory-scale analogue experiments have shown that unconfined, floating viscous flows generate buttressing via hoop stresses. Hoop stress results from the viscous resistance to spreading perpendicular to the flow direction in a diverging flow. We build on theoretical work to explore the controls on the magnitude of hoop-stress buttressing, deducing that buttressing increases with increasing effective viscosity and increasing divergence. We use an idealised model calibrated to unconfined sections of Antarctic ice shelves and find that many shelves have low effective viscosity, most likely due to extensive damage resulting from high extensional stresses. Therefore, they are unable to sustain the large hoop stresses required to resist flow. Some ice shelves that are surrounded by sea ice year-round have a greater effective viscosity and can provide buttressing, suggesting that sea ice reduces fracturing. However, we find that most unconfined ice shelves provide insignificant buttressing today, even when hoop stresses are considered in the stress balance.

We present a newly developed 1-D numerical energy-balance and phase transition supraglacial lake model: GlacierLake. GlacierLake incorporates snowfall, in situ snow and ice melt, incoming water from the surrounding catchment, ice lid formation, basal freeze-up and thermal stratification. Snow cover and temperature are varied to test lake development through winter and the maximum lid thickness is recorded. Average wintertime temperatures of −2 to $-30^{\circ }{\rm C}$ and total snowfall of 0 to 3.45 m lead to a range of the maximum lid thickness from 1.2 to 2.8 m after ${\sim }250$ days, with snow cover exerting the dominant control. An initial ice temperature of $-15^{\circ }{\rm C}$ with simulated advection of cold ice from upstream results in 0.6 m of basal freeze-up. This suggests that lakes with water depths above 1.3 to 3.4 m (dependent on winter snowfall and temperature) upon lid formation will persist through winter. These buried lakes can provide a sizeable water store at the start of the melt season, expedite future lake formation and warm underlying ice even in winter.

Physically-based avalanche propagation models must still be locally calibrated to provide robust predictions, e.g. in long-term forecasting and subsequent risk assessment. Friction parameters cannot be measured directly and need to be estimated from observations. Rich and diverse data are now increasingly available from test-sites, but for measurements made along flow propagation, potential autocorrelation should be explicitly accounted for. To this aim, this work proposes a comprehensive Bayesian calibration and statistical model selection framework. As a proof of concept, the framework was applied to an avalanche sliding block model with the standard Voellmy friction law and high rate photogrammetric images. An avalanche released at the Lautaret test-site and a synthetic data set based on the avalanche are used to test the approach and to illustrate its benefits. Results demonstrate (1) the efficiency of the proposed calibration scheme, and (2) that including autocorrelation in the statistical modelling definitely improves the accuracy of both parameter estimation and velocity predictions. Our approach could be extended without loss of generality to the calibration of any avalanche dynamics model from any type of measurement stemming from the same avalanche flow.

We examine the spatial patterns of near-surface air temperature (Ta) over a melting glacier using a multi-annual dataset from McCall Glacier, Alaska. The dataset consists of a 10-year (2005–2014) meteorological record along the glacier centreline up to an upper glacier cirque, spanning an elevation difference of 900 m. We test the validity of on-glacier linear lapse rates, and a model that calculates Ta based on the influence of katabatic winds and other heat sources along the glacier flow line. During the coldest hours of each summer (10% of time), average lapse rates across the entire glacier range from −4.7 to −6.7°C km−1, with a strong relationship between Ta and elevation (R2 > 0.7). During warm conditions, Ta shows more complex, non-linear patterns that are better explained by the flow line-dependent model, reducing errors by up to 0.5°C compared with linear lapse rates, although more uncertainty might be associated with these observations due to occasionally poor sensor ventilation. We conclude that Ta spatial distribution can vary significantly from year to year, and from one glacier section to another. Importantly, extrapolations using linear lapse rates from the ablation zone might lead to large underestimations of Ta on the upper glacier areas.

This work quantifies the increased temperature sensitivity of the constitutive behavior of ice with proximity to the melting point in terms of dislocation mechanics. An analysis of quasistatic and dynamic cyclic loading data for several ice types leads to the conclusion that high temperature (e.g. T ≥ −8°C) behavior is the result of a thermally induced increase in the number of mobile dislocations rather than an increase in the activation energy of dislocation glide or the introduction of a new deformation mechanism. The relationship between dislocation density and temperature is quantified and the model is shown to adequately represent the published minimum creep rate vs stress data for isotropic granular freshwater ice for −48 ≤ T ≤ −0.01°C.

Hydrofracturing can enhance the depth to which crevasses propagate and, in some cases, allow full depth crevasse penetration and iceberg detachment. However, many existing crevasse models either do not fully account for the stress field driving the hydrofracture process and/or treat glacier ice as elastic, neglecting the non-linear viscous rheology. Here, we present a non-local continuum poro-damage mechanics (CPDM) model for hydrofracturing and implement it within a full Stokes finite element formulation. We use the CPDM model to simulate the propagation of water-filled crevasses in idealized grounded glaciers, and compare crevasse depths predicted by this model with those from linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) and zero stress models. We find that the CPDM model is in good agreement with the LEFM model for isolated crevasses and with the zero stress model for closely-spaced crevasses, until the glacier approaches buoyancy. When the glacier approaches buoyancy, we find that the CPDM model does not allow the propagation of water-filled crevasses due to the much smaller size of the tensile stress region concentrated near the crevasse tip. Our study suggests that the combination of non-linear viscous and damage processes in ice near the tip of a water-filled crevasse can alter calving outcomes.

Seismic studies of glaciers yield insights into spatio-temporal processes within and beneath glaciers on scales relevant to flow and deformation of the ice. These methods enable direct monitoring of the bed in ways that complement other geophysical techniques, such as geodetic or ground penetrating radar observations. In this work, we report on the analysis of passive seismic data collected from the interior of the North East Greenland Ice Stream, the Greenland ice sheet's largest outlet glacier. We record thousands of basal earthquakes, many of which repeat with nearly identical waveforms. We also record many long-duration glacial tremor episodes that migrate across the seismic network with slow velocities (e.g. ~4–12 m s−1). Analysis of the basal earthquakes indicates a transition between times of individual event activity and times of tremor activity. We suggest that both processes are produced by shear slip at localized asperities along the bed. The transition between discrete and quasi-continuous slipping modes may be driven by pore-water pressure transients or heterogeneous strain accumulation in the ice due to strength contrasts of the underlying till.

210Pb is an environmental radionuclide with a half-life of 22.3 years, formed in the atmosphere via radioactive decay of radon (222Rn). 222Rn itself is a noble gas with a half-life of 3.8 days and is formed via radioactive decay of uranium (238U) contained in the Earth crust from where it constantly emanates into the atmosphere. 210Pb atoms attach to aerosol particles, which are then deposited on glaciers via scavenging with fresh snow. Due to its half-life, ice cores can be dated with this radionuclide over roughly one century, depending on the initial 210Pb activity concentration. Optimum 210Pb dating is achieved for cold glaciers with no – or little – influence by percolating meltwater. This paper presents an overview which not only includes dating of cold glaciers but also some special cases of 210Pb applications in glaciology addressing temperate glaciers, glaciers with negative mass balance, sublimation processes on glaciers in arid regions, determination of annual net snow accumulation as well as glacier flow rates.

Marine-terminating glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) have retreated, accelerated and thinned in response to climate change in recent decades. Ocean warming has been implicated as a trigger for these changes in glacier dynamics, yet little data exist near glacier termini to assess the role of ocean warming here. We use remotely-sensed iceberg melt rates seaward of two glaciers on the eastern and six glaciers on the western AP from 2013 to 2019 to explore connections between variations in ocean conditions and glacier frontal ablation. We find iceberg melt rates follow regional ocean temperature variations, with the highest melt rates (mean ≈ 10 cm d−1) at Cadman and Widdowson glaciers in the west and the lowest melt rates (mean ≈ 0.5 cm d−1) at Crane Glacier in the east. Near-coincident glacier frontal ablation rates from 2014 to 2018 vary from ~450 m a−1 at Edgeworth and Blanchard glaciers to ~3000 m a−1 at Seller Glacier, former Wordie Ice Shelf tributary. Variations in iceberg melt rates and glacier frontal ablation rates are significantly positively correlated around the AP (Spearman's ρ = 0.71, p-value = 0.003). We interpret this correlation as support for previous research suggesting submarine melting of glacier termini exerts control on glacier frontal dynamics around the AP.

Glacial retreat in response to warming climates in the arid Xinjiang region of northwestern China directly impacts downstream water resources available for local communities. We used high-resolution satellite imagery from 1969 to 2014 to delineate spatial changes in 54 active glaciers in the upper Kaidu River Basin in the Tian Shan as well as their past expanses during the Little Ice Age (LIA). We manually delineated their boundaries based on the interpretation of glacial, geomorphic and topographic features. From the total glacier surface area, we estimated glacier volume and mass. From 1969 to 2014, glacier area decreased by 10.1 ± 1.0 km2 (relative loss of 34.2 ± 3.5%) and mass by 1.025 ± 0.108 Gt (relative loss of 43 ± 4.6%). From the LIA maximum (est. 1586 CE) to 1969, relative losses were less (25.7 ± 4.3% area loss and 33.1 ± 5.7% mass loss). Our results indicate that glacier recession is accelerating over time and that the glaciers are currently losing over 1.5 times more relative area than elsewhere in the Tian Shan. Using linear and non-linear projections, we estimate that these glaciers may disappear between 2050 and 2150 CE if climatic warming continues at the same pace.

Evolving conditions at the terminus of Thwaites Glacier will be important in determining the rate of its future sea-level contribution over the coming decades. Here, we use remote-sensing observations to investigate recent changes (2000–2018) in the structure and velocity of Thwaites Glacier and its floating tongue. We show that the main trunk of Thwaites Glacier has accelerated by 38% over this period, while its previously intact floating tongue has transitioned to a weaker mélange of fractured icebergs bounded by sea ice. However, the rate of structural weakening and acceleration was not uniform across the observational period and we identify two periods of rapid acceleration and structural weakening (2006–2012; 2016–2018), separated by a period of deceleration and re-advance of the structurally-intact shear margin boundary (2012–2015). The timing of these accelerations/decelerations strongly suggests a link to variable ocean forcing. The weakened tongue now has some dependency on landfast sea ice for structural integrity and is vulnerable to changes in landfast ice persistency. Future reductions in landfast sea ice could manifest from changes in climate and/or the imminent removal of the B-22A iceberg from the Thwaites embayment. Such changes could have important implications for the integrity of the ice tongue and future glacier discharge.

On 30 September 2017, an Air France Airbus A380-800 suffered a failure of its fourth engine while over Greenland. This failure resulted in the loss of the engine fan hub, fan blades and surrounding structure. An initial search recovered 30 pieces of light debris, but the primary part of interest, a ~220 kg titanium fan hub, was not recovered because it had a different fall trajectory than the light debris, impacted into the ice-sheet's snow surface, and was quickly covered by drifting snow. Here we describe the methods used for the detection of the fan hub and details of the field campaigns. The search area included two crevasse fields of at least 50 snow-covered crevasses 1 to ~30 m wide with similar snow bridge thicknesses. After 21 months and six campaigns, using airborne synthetic aperture radar, ground-penetrating radar, transient electromagnetics and an autonomous vehicle to survey the crevasse fields, the fan hub was found within ~1 m of a crevasse at a depth of ~3.3 to 4 m and was excavated with shovels, chain saws, an electric winch, sleds and a gasoline heater, by workers using fall-arrest systems.

Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is an important control on the dynamics of Antarctica's ice sheet because it controls basal melt and internal deformation. However, it is hard to estimate because of a lack of in-situ measurements. Estimating GHF from ice-borehole temperature profiles is possible by combining a heat-transfer equation and the physical properties of the ice sheet in a numerical model. In this study, we truncate ice-borehole temperature profiles to determine the minimum ratio of temperature profile depth to ice-sheet thickness required to produce acceptable GHF estimations. For Law Dome, a temperature profile that is within 60% of the local ice thickness is sufficient for an estimation that is within approximately one median absolute deviation of the whole-profile GHF estimation. This result is compared with the temperature profiles at Dome Fuji and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide which require a temperature profile that is 80% and more than 91% of the ice thickness, respectively, for comparable accuracy. In deriving GHF median estimations from truncated temperature profiles, it is possible to discriminate between available GHF models. This is valuable for assessing and constraining future GHF models.