There are many unsettled questions as one attempts to address the subject of this paper. The obvious ones are “What is Reaganomics?” and “What is rural development?” Back of those are many questions having to do with whether policy as it is now being enacted and implemented is actually Reagonomics, or whether it is the end product of the usual leavening process that takes place as political rhetoric is translated into political action and programs. Similarly, public programs at the local level are an amalgam of actions by local, state, and Federal governments. How does one sort out the effects of one of these when all are going through a transition?

Data on farm numbers are widely discussed and frequently misinterpreted. These numbers comprise one of the nation's oldest and most basic statistical series. As such they are a fundamental part of our agricultural data system. This paper argues that American farms should be classified into three separate categories for both descriptive and analytical purposes. Such divisions will allow us to understand more fully the changes in farming which have occurred and the implications of changes now in progress. Rates of change in size distributions, productivity and net income may be examined in perspective. Public understanding of the policy issues involved will be enhanced.

Your program chairman asked that I direct my remarks to the subject of impacts of Reagan economics on agriculture. I do so with some trepidation since it is not clear which parts of current economic policies should be attributed to the Reagan administration, the Congress, the Federal Reserve Board, and preceding administrations. Further, I have some doubt as to what economic policy is, or is about to become, at any specific point in time. In reviewing current policies and programs, I also shall attempt to identify longer-run policy issues which might command our attention as agricultural economists.

Marketing costs and contributions to production costs for fresh vegetables marketed through four direct marketing alternatives and through wholesale channels are compared. Budgets derived from empirical observations were the bases for the comparisons. The results favor an elaborate roadside market, which sells a large quantity of items purchased for resale. Farmers’ markets and pick-your-own operations were also found to be potentially more profitable than wholesale marketing.

The Northeast is the major calf-killing region in the country with the bulk of the calf supply composed of week old dairy bull calves of approximately 100 pounds (USDA, Livestock and Meat Stat.). Until recently this by-product of the dairy industry had little alternative uses. Currently, however, the meat grade standards have been relaxed to the point where it is possible for a properly fed Holstein steer to grade at or near choice with live weight below 1200 pounds. This regulatory change has made dairy bob calves more potentially valuable as feeder calves.

A pilot tree fruit pest management program in Wayne County, New York was evaluated. Thirty-three blocks of fruit were matched for 26 participants in the pilot program and for 23 nonparticipants. Participants reduced pesticide costs and total pest management costs in comparison to nonparticipants. Factors which will affect the adoption of Integrated Pest Management in other locations include the attitudes of growers, farm size, and the density of fruit production. Integrated Pest Management programs are economically feasible for several other areas of high tree fruit density in the Northeast.

In any society a loss of confidence in the capacity of contemporary institutions and leadership to deal with current problems creates anxieties and feelings of loss of control. A classical reaction to such stress is efforts to return to earlier, presumably simpler, institutional forms and lifestyles, thereby regaining control and the lost sense of purpose and direction. Today in the Northeast, as in much of the nation, many people are alarmed by the recent disturbances and shocks to the American way of life: the energy shortage, the threat of nuclear disaster, high unemployment and prices, faltering state and local finances, and a recurring credibility gap at all levels of government. The perceived inability of institutional forms to deal with these concerns has fostered a re-examination of individual, local and regional goals and a rediscovery of more traditional values based on self-reliance. One manifestation of this phenomenon is the promotion in the region by some professionals and laymen alike of a policy of self-sufficiency in agricultural production.

The role of community attachments in decision-making models of migration is evaluated. Findings of a block model analysis (with multiple partials) are reported with data from a longitudinal study. Findings indicate that attachments to community only partially explain willingness to move.

An economically viable rural American is generally accepted as a desirable national goal, but few policy guidelines or comprehensive programs1 for attaining this goal have been developed. One reason for the current “piece-meal” approach in pursuing rural development goals is the lack of knowledge about basic economic interactions between the factors influencing the level and distribution of economic activities in rural areas. A second reason is the tendency to design rural development research and extension programs to attain quick payoffs which results in descriptive studies which emphasize what rather than why certain events are occurring in rural areas.

Industrialization has long been proposed as a policy for promoting regional economic growth and reducing the incidence of unemployment, poverty and dependency in lagging regions (Smith). Such policy proposals are based on the trickle down theory. This theory holds that economic development results in an increase in the demand for skilled labor which in turn results in an upgrading of the positions of the semiskilled, unskilled, and unemployed. The result is economic growth and a reduction in the incidence of unemployment, poverty and dependency and the degree of income inequality in the area.

Population has been increasing for at least a decade in rural areas of West Virginia as in many areas of the Nation. This phenomenon is transforming rural areas, with problems of growth replacing those of decline. If local governments, the extension service and others are to cope adequately with this emerging set of problems, more must be learned about the newer residents, their attitudes, needs and how they relate to those of the rest of the population in the area. A number of recent analyses of rural development attest to the serious data gap that exists with respect to knowledge in the area (Beal; Fuguitt, Voss and Doherty; Gilford, Nelson, and Ingram; Powers and Moe in Dillman and Hobbs, p. 14; and Sofranko and Williams). This paper reports on a 1981 survey of rural residents in nine selected West Virginia counties, a survey which was conducted to help solve the data gap problems.

This paper presents empirical measures of the efficiency of the New York family dairy farm over its life cycle. The increase and then decrease in farm efficiency with age is only minor. Factors not correlated with age are much more important in determining efficiency. Exiting farmers who appear not to have children to take over the family farm are managing and maintaining the farm as well as exiting farmers who have potential future farming children.

New methods of moving manure to storages, new manure storage structures and new manure spreading technologies are now found on dairy farms. Consequently, farmers are in need of labor requirements, investment and annual cost data. The purpose of this article is to present current investment, labor and annual cost information that will aid farmers in making economical decisions relative to selecting alternative manure handling systems. Manure handling systems presented in Table 1 were planned for freestall housing and 75, 150 and 300 cow herd sizes. These systems were based on a survey of 98 dairy farms in the Monocacy River Watershed (Holik and Lessley), data from the Agricultural Engineering Department of the University of Maryland, the Soil Conservation Service and the Midwest Plan Service. The manure handling systems and herd sizes modeled are considered to be representative of dairies found in Maryland.

The current and future world food problem is centered in low income nations and among low income segments of populations world wide. The thesis of this paper is that increases in income and food production in the poorer nations and among low income segments of rural populations elsewhere are likely to aggravate that problem in the first instance. It is after some minimum level of economic well being has been attained that further increases in income will result in reduced family size.

The GREEN REVOLUTION has been offered as an example of both what to do and what not to do as international agriculture development. An appraisal is made of the benefits and consequences of the GREEN REVOLUTION for both wheat and rice. The history of the GREEN REVOLUTION is traced to its origins in pre-war Japan for both its concept and as the source of genetic material. The successful “production technology” approach of the wheat research program in Mexico is compared to the “appropriate technology” of the less successful maize research program. Lessons are drawn from the experience of the GREEN REVOLUTION that may prove helpful when planning or evaluating international agricultural development projects.

Technological developments in rice production in Asia have greatly increased the potential returns to irrigation investments. It is likely that a substantial amount of resources will be allocated to irrigation development in the next two decades. But past experience suggests that the returns actually realized on these investments will be disappointing unless greater attention is paid to problems of effective water management, particularly in the main irrigation system. Human and institutional capabilities, and not physical or financial capital, are likely to be the most limiting factors in dealing with these problems.

Since World War II U.S. Agriculture has seen regional shifts and greater concentration in the production of certain commodities. Technological and infrastructural developments in irrigation, plant varieties, cultivation techniques, transportation, storage, and processing have lowered the barriers of time and space, thus allowing remote regions to compete with and even dominate the traditional production areas. The U.S. potato industry offers an excellent example of this. Processed potatoes have become the dominant food use form and production has shifted westward and become more concentrated both with respect to time and location. In 1947, 44 percent of U.S. potato production was in the seven largest potato states for the fall crop, 35 percent was produced in the nonfall crops, and eight percent was processed. By 1978, 75 percent was produced by the seven leading states for the fall crop, 14 percent in the early nonfall crops, and 59 percent was processed. Because many of these changes involved the adoption of relatively energy intensive techniques, the existence of low and fairly stable energy prices until 1973 aided this change. The increases in energy costs since 1973 raise questions about the long-run stability of recent patterns of production and consumption.

The energy crunch of the mid-seventies has adversely affected the greenhouse tomato industry in the North Central and Northeast regions. Traditionally, these two regions had been the main producers of greenhouse tomatoes in the U.S. where, because of the climatic restriction, greenhouse tomato production evolved to supply fresh tomatoes during winter and spring months. Since greenhouse producers in the north rely on fossil fuels for heating purposes, their production costs have escalated, thereby tending to price these tomatoes out of the market. In recent years many greenhouse tomato producers in the northern regions have either ceased production or switched into alternative enterprises. For instance, the Census of Agriculture reported 45 growers in Massachusetts in 1974, with covered areas of 535,842 square feet; by 1979, according to extension experts, the number declined to 25 and the area declined to between 150,000 and 200,000 square feet. The number of growers in New Jersey declined from 42 in the 1974 census to only 19 in 1979. Similar declines have occurred in New York and Pennsylvania.

This paper examines the economic, environmental and energy use impacts of a corn based ethanol industry on Western New York State. A regional linear programming model is used. Five representative farm groups are used to describe the agricultural sector of the study region. Comparisons are made between a benchmark solution and model formulations that include conservation tillage practices, ethanol induced feed price changes, and the feeding of the feed by-product, DDG.