A fuller discussion of some of the individual items of expenditure is provided in the section on ‘Details of demand’ which follows.

In the first half of the year, there was no significant recovery in national output (table 1). The quarter-to-quarter movements are uncertain : but by the second quarter, on the evidence of the industrial production and unemployment figures, gross domestic product was probably less than ½ per cent higher than in the fourth quarter of 1966.

The economic situation among the industrial countries has been developing less favourably than we envisaged in May. In the second quarter there seems to have been only a modest recovery in output in the United States and a further decline in West Germany. The sluggishness of demand in these two countries is having repercussions on the economies of some of their chief trading partners, and for the industrial countries as a whole there was probably little change in industrial production in the second quarter.

This note, by Mrs. K. Jones, is one chapter of a study on ‘Some Economic Aspects of Immigration’, which is being undertaken at the Institute. Research is still in progress on other aspects, such as employment, earnings, expenditure, savings and remittances, housing and capital requirements. It is hoped to publish the results as an Occasional Paper by the end of 1968.

This note discusses methods of forecasting investment in housing in Britain for twelve to eighteen months ahead. The first section discusses the figures for housing investment, and the way in which they are compiled. The second section sets out what is at present done at the Institute in the preparation of quarterly forecasts. The third section describes a preliminary exploration of more satisfactory ways of forecasting private housing demand.