After almost two years of virtual stagnation, a sharp rise in the level of output has ensued in the last six months; between the third quarter of last year and the first of this, national output probably increased by 2-2½ per cent (table 2). But the momentum of this recovery may have begun to slacken off towards the end of the period.

Fuller information confirms the estimates which we made six months ago and repeated in February that the total real national output of the industrial countries increased in 1967 by about 3 per cent and the value of world trade by 5 per cent. But, though the errors were not big in relation to the aggregate for the year, it has now become clear that our assessment of trends in the later months was not entirely accurate. The resumption of fairly rapid economic growth in North America of which we were already aware was in fact accompanied to a significantly greater extent than we previously realised by a parallel acceleration in continental Western Europe.

This article examines United Kingdom imports of manufactures from developing and new industrial countries over the years 1954 to 1966 in terms of market shares and the growth of trade in different commodities. Its object is to elucidate some of the reasons for the much more successful performance of the new industrial countries, and to use their experience to suggest opportunities for promoting the trade of the developing countries.

The United Kingdom's share of world exports of manufactures to other countries fell by over a third between 1954 and 1966—from 20.9 per cent to 13.1 per cent. This loss of share represents a loss of exports of some £2,450 million in 1966. Moreover United Kingdom exports rose rather more slowly in the second half of the period than in the first, while in world exports there was a slight acceleration.