Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-5r2nc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-07T15:29:17.405Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Best Linear Prediction of Composite Universe Scores

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2025

David Jarjoura*
Affiliation:
American College Testing Program
*
Requests for reprints should be sent to David Jarjoura, Measurement Research Department, ACT, P.O. Box 168, Iowa City, Iowa 52243.

Abstract

The problem of predicting universe scores for samples of examinees based on their responses to samples of items is treated. A general measurement procedure is described in which multiple test forms are developed from a table of specifications and each form is administered to a different sample of examinees. The measurement model categorizes items according to the cells of such a table, and the linear function derived for minimizing error variance in prediction uses responses to these categories. In addition, some distinctions are drawn between aspects of the approach taken here and the familiar regressed score estimates.

Type
Original Paper
Copyright
Copyright © 1983 The Psychometric Society

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The author thanks Robert L. Brennan, Michael J. Kolen, and Richard Sawyer for helpful comments and corrections, and anonymous reviewers for suggested improvements.

References

American College Testing Program. Content of the tests in the ACT Assessment, Iowa City, Iowa: American College Testing Program, 1980.Google Scholar
Cronbach, L. J., Gleser, G. C., Nanda, H., & Rajaratnam, N. The dependability of behavioral measurements: Theory of generalizability for scores and profiles, New York: Wiley, 1972.Google Scholar
Jarjoura, D., & Brennan, R. L. A variance components model for measurement procedures associated with a table of specifications. Applied Psychological Measurement, 1982, 6, 161171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, C., Wang, M., & Novick, M. R. Marginal distributions for the estimation of proportions in m groups. Psychometrika, 1975, 40, 6375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindley, D. V., & Smith, A. F. M. Bayes estimates for the linear model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (B), 1972, 34, 141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lord, F. M. Statistical inferences about true scores. Psychometrika, 1959, 24, 117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lord, F. M. An empirical study of the normality and independence of errors of measurement in test scores. Psychometrika, 1960, 25, 91104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lord, F. M. Use of true-score theory to predict moments of univariate and bivariate observed-score distributions. Psychometrika, 1960, 25, 325342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lord, F. M., & Novick, M. R. Statistical theories of mental test scores, Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1968.Google Scholar
Novick, M. R., Jackson, P. H., & Thayer, D. T. Bayesian inference and the classical test theory model: Reliability and true scores. Psychometrika, 1971, 36, 261288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Searle, S. R. Matrix algebra for the biological sciences, New York: Wiley, 1966.Google Scholar
Searle, S. R. Derivation of prediction formulae (Paper No. BU-482-M in the Biometrics Unit), Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University, 1973.Google Scholar
Searle, S. R. Prediction, mixed models, and variance components. In Proschan, F., & Serfling, R. J. (Eds.), Reliability and Biometry, Philadelphia: SIAM, 1974.Google Scholar
Woodbury, M. A., & Novick, M. R. Maximizing the validity of a test battery as a function of relative test lengths for a fixed total testing time. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 1968, 5, 242259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar