Unemployment has risen steadily during the last five years in all of the major European economies. Although there have been some signs that the rate of increase may have slackened this is mainly due to the fiscal-led expansion in the United States. Recent evidence suggests that the growth rate in the United States is slackening, and the need to reduce the structural budget deficit means that the rest of the developed countries can no longer rely on the United States as the main source of demand growth in the world economy. In spite of this, European governments have been reluctant to undertake fiscal and monetary policy actions which might sustain the recovery. In part this reflects a pessimism about the efficacy of conventional stabilisation policies born of the experience of the mid-seventies. However, the current situation is arguably very different now. Whereas the recession of the mid-seventies was largely the result of a supply-side shock requiring a downward adjustment in real wages, the recession of the early eighties is largely a consequence of the contractionary fiscal and monetary policies pursued outside the United States. That the present high levels of unemployment are Keynesian rather than Classical in nature has been argued forcefully by e.g. Dornbusch et al. (1983) and Bruno (1985). A reversal of these contractionary policies could therefore be expected to increase employment. Thus Layard et al. (1984) have argued there is scope for a temporary, supply-side friendly, fiscal expansion concentrated in public investment, subsidies to private investment and measures to reduce the marginal cost of employment. This would be accompanied by a modest relaxation of monetary policy to prevent real interest rates rising. Because such an expansion would be temporary it need have no long-run implications for inflation or real interest rates.

This paper presents the results of an empirical study on the relationship between internal structural change and performance, in a sample of 138 large U.K. companies, 1959-1976. The paper considers the introduction of the multidivisional form (M-form) within the sample and addresses itself to three principal questions:

Firstly, whether re-organization to an M-form structure followed a significant decline in the performance of the firm?

Secondly, whether M-form adoption was followed by a significant improvement in performance?

Finally, was the performance impact, if any, of re-organization related in a systematic way to firm characteristics — e.g. size, diversification etc. — in a manner consistent with the M-form hypothesis?

Cet article explore les liens empiriques entre la pluralité des formes institutionnelles et la durée de chômage pour apprécier le rôle des entreprises et de leurs modes de gestion de la main-d'œuvre dans l'allongement de la durée de chômage et dans la construction de l'employabilité des travailleurs. À partir du suivi longitudinal des chômeurs de l'enquête TDE-MLT, nous procédons à une analyse microéconométrique de la durée du premier épisode de chômage des individus en fonction des variables attachées aux entreprises et aux relations d'emploi passées. Les résultats établissent que certaines pratiques de gestion de la main-d'œuvre développées par les entreprises déterminent les parcours de chômage des individus de notre échantillon et construisent en partie la vulnérabilité des travailleurs au chômage de longue durée.

Discussion of economics of exhaustible resource in its modern form stemmed from Hotellings 1931 paper. The principles of optimal resource utilisation are now fairly clearly understood in the context of centrally planned economies but it is only since Hotellings paper that there has been a limited amount of work done on the description of behaviour of resource extractors in a market economy and there has still been virtually no work done in this literature on government policy over natural resources and their extraction in a market economy with the exception of a brief cryptic passage in Hotellings paper. Since Hotellings paper is an obvious point of departure for the exercises of the present it is worth summarising his framework.

Cette note est consacrée à l’examen empirique des biais de distorsion en analyse transversale provenant d’une modification par cohorte du calendrier ou de l’intensité du phénomène étudié. Ces biais, liés à l’utilisation de l’artifice de la cohorte fictive, ont été bien décrits par N.B. Ryder notamment sous le nom de « distributional distortion ». L’intensité d’un phénomène (nombre moyen d’événements par tête), mesuré dans l’optique transversale d’analyse, ne dépend pas seulement de l’intensité du phénomène par cohorte mais également des variations du calendrier de ce phénomène d’une cohorte à l’autre; de même, la durée moyenne d’éventualité mesurée en analyse transversale ne dépend pas seulement du calendrier réel du phénomène par cohorte mais subit également l’influence d’une modification de l’intensité du phénomène d’une cohorte à l’autre. C’est ce dernier problème que nous analyserons ici en recourant à l’exemple de l’âge moyen au premier mariage calculé par la méthode élaborée par John Hajnal.

The task of re-stating the theory of the true cost-of-living index when preferences are subject to taste change was undertaken by F. Fisher and K. Shell in their contribution to the Hicks' Festschrift [Fisher-Shell (1969)]. It was succeeded by a paper, co-authored by L. Phlips and R. Sanz-Ferrer (1972), that proposed an index different from the one elaborated by Fisher and Shell. They also expounded an algorithm for calculating the two indexes with the help of Phlips' dynamic linear expenditure system [Phlips (1972)].

The purpose of this paper is to extend the work of Fisher and Shell in three directions. First, taste change is parametrised in the utility function in such a way as to allow its application to Phlips' dynamic system. Secondly, a broader definition of the true cost-of-living index is provided. Thirdly, the influence of taste change on the index is less restrictive than in the Fisher-Shell case without, we believe, incurring the reproach of cardinality. It is patterned on the Phlips-Sanz-Ferrer approach.

Les mesures d'inégalité du revenu rassemblent deux types d'indicateurs décomposables : les indices décomposables en sous-populations et les indices décomposables en sources de revenu. Les premiers permettent de partager l'inégalité totale en une inégalité intragroupe et une inégalité intergroupe et les seconds d'attribuer à chaque facteur de revenu (revenu du travail, revenu du capital, taxes, etc.) une part de l'inégalité totale. Dans cet article, nous examinons d'une part la construction de ces techniques et d'autre part nous relatons les débats auxquels elles ont aboutis et plus particulièrement celui de la convergence vers un emploi simultané des deux types de décomposition.

The primary purpose of this paper is to study the extent to which prices and markets can be employed as means towards efficient control of pollution. The model which is examined is, however, sufficiently general to apply to any sort of externalities among producers and consumers, including classical public goods. In the first section we consider the problem of efficient means of achieving a specified standard of environmental quality. We then briefly discuss the more difficult problem of choosing the environmental quality standards themselves.

Given the difficulties of utilitarian and egalitarian social welfare functions in the context of intergenerational equity, an analysis directly based on the potential transfers that can be made between generations is proposed. A consumption path may be rejected if some transfers with infinite returns can be made. It is shown that such potential transfers are unlikely in the short run in ordinary growth models, but that the returns to sacrifice are often unbounded when distant dates are considered, except in some particular cases. These concepts help select acceptable growth paths, and give some insight into the dilemmas of intergenerational justice.

Answers of sample survey respondents to questions like the following one: “In the circumstances of your household, what income would you regard as the minimum (or good/bad/sufficient, etc.) for your household?” can be used to estimate equivalence scales. It is sometimes claimed that this is a simple and cheap method to obtain “true” equivalence scales. Typically, these scales are much flatter than those derived from consumption behaviour data, or those incorporated in official poverty lines. A number of possible reasons have been advanced for this result. Yet, using subjective data does not necessarily result in a flat equivalence scale. Equivalence scales can also be estimated from answers to direct survey questions on how satisfied the respondent is with his or her household income, and these scales are often quite steep. In this paper, an application of both methods is reported. A number of possible reasons for the discrepancy are explored. In particular, the effects of a wide range of exogenous variables are examined. Data are from the 1985 and 1988 waves of the Belgian Socio-Economic Panel, a household income survey. The conclusion is that the discrepancy between the equivalence scales persists, even when controlling for a large number of possibly intervening factors.

Allotment and subcontracting are the two procedures enabling small businesses to participate in procurement. We compare these two procedures in the context of a procurement contract awarded by a first-price sealed-bid auction. We assume that the public buyer wishes to fulfil two different goals: to minimize expected costs of the contract for the public buyer and to maximize small businesses' profit. We show that, under specific cost-technology conditions we determine, the allotment procedure not only enables extensive participation by small businesses but also can achieve the goal of minimizing expected total costs for the public buyer.

Dans l'ouvrage que Van Parijs a consacré en 1995 aux fondements philosophiques et économiques du projet d'allocation universelle, le chapitre IV est dédié au problème du financement « soutenable » d'une telle mesure. Les « rentes d'emploi » y sont présentées comme un troisième type de ressources susceptibles d'élargir l'assiette fiscale du financement, à côté des « ressources externes » et des « ressources internes » des individus. Les difficultés d'exploitation de telles rentes légitiment l'exploration d'une stratégie alternative de financement fondée sur la flexibilité « walrassienne » des salaires, laquelle permet de réduire une certaine contradiction entre l'acceptation par Van Parijs de rentes de situation liées à l'emploi et sa volonté ultérieure (chapitre VI) d'« optimiser » le capitalisme. Incidemment, la différence réelle entre allocation universelle et impôt négatif sur le revenu est aussi réexaminée.

I. INTRODUCTION

Unemployment in Europe has risen during the 70s and early 80s to double digit rates, rates which are not considered likely to fall much in the remaining years of the 80s. This is so in enough countries to encourage some to speak of a ‘European disease’. Those of us who live in Britain have long been familiar with the ‘British disease’, as have the Dutch with their ‘Dutch disease’ (supposedly related to North Sea energy resources). This paper suggests that these earlier national ailments are precursors of the general European one to which attention has more recently been drawn — notably by Professor Giersch who has spoken of a ‘market sclerosis’ in Europe, especially in the labour market (Giersch, 1985). (Also see OECD (1985, p. 38)).

However, in spite of this provocative general opening we wish to focus in this paper on West Germany, and thus to highlight a specific case of what may well be a general phenomenon. Our motivation is fourfold: to widen the analysis of the possible disease to a country in which there is wide interest; to stimulate other European researchers to work along the lines of analysis portrayed here; to follow up the echoes sounded in the comments of authoritative national students (e.g. Giersch, op. cit., and de Grauwe, Fratianni and Nabli, 1985), and finally, to utilize a full macroeconomic model of the Federal Replublic of Germany in this direction of research.

Cet article est une introduction élémentaire à la littérature concernant l'analyse du concept d'une allocation «sans envie», c'est à dire une allocation telle que chaque personne préfère son panier de consommation au panier de toute autre personne. Nous présentons une liste des mérites de cette définition et une liste de ses limitations.

1. INTRODUCTION

Since the mid-seventies vintage models have played an important role in the analysis of the Dutch economy. Although earlier vintages of these models were of a clay-clay nature, due to technical progress in economic analysis and in estimation methods, more recent vintages are of a putty-clay nature. Examples of the latter are Kuipers and van Zon (1982) and Gelauff, Wennekers and De Jong (1985). We shall further refer to them as KvZ and GWJ, respectively. Our model fits in with this putty-clay tradition. However, before highlighting several features of our model, some general remarks should be made.

In the period 1950-1970 employment in the private sector in the Netherlands increased from 3400 to 4130 thousand man-years. It remained at a more or less constant level of 4100 thousand man-years till 1980 and then decreased rapidly to a level of 3800 in 1983, at which it remained for the years 1984 and 1985. Likewise, unemployment increased slowly from 70 thousand man-years in 1970 to 325 thousand man-years in 1980. Then unemployment accelerated towards a level of 800 thousand man-years in 1983, at which it remained for the years 1984 and 1985. The unemployment rate is about 17 % nowadays. Muyskens and Meijers (1985) explain that the earlier developed clay-clay vintage models cannot adequately deal with these turbulent developments in the period 1980-1985.

The analysis of intra-industry trade, as it is understood now, was born almost by accident. In his study of the changes in the pattern of intrabloc trade of the Benelux Union, Verdoorn (1960) calculated the bilateral trade ratios of a sample of 121 products at comparable levels of international trade classification, for two different points in time. He noticed that the number of the extreme values of the ratios had been reduced while their median increased since the formation of the Benelux Union. From this he inferred that specialization, if it did accompany the intra-bloc trade, was to be found within rather than between the different categories of trade. He also argued that the rather large variance of the price differentials found for the Dutch and BLEU bilateral export prices indicated, in the absence of trade obstacles, a high degree of product differentiation and corroborated the trend towards intra-industry specialization. These findings, tucked away into seven brief sentences in the text of Verdoorn’s (1960) article did not immediately attract attention as “new territory”.

La présente étude traite de la question de I'union monétaire européenne é partir d'une approche empirique. L'objectif principal de l'étude est d'évaluer le degré d'asymétrie des chocs affectant un ensemble de huit pays européens stisceptibles de former le noyau d'une éventuelle union monétaire. Étant donné que la mesure qui importe le plus est le degré d'asymétrie des chocs réels, notre approche consiste à utiliser les fluctuations observées des taux de change réels comme un indicateur du degré d'asymétrie des chocs et d'en extraire les composantes réelles (qui sont permanentes) et nominales (qui sont transitoires) par le biais de l'information contenue dans le mouvement du taux de change nominal. La méthode de décomposition utilisée est celle recommendee par Blanchard et Quah [1989] et adapteé au cas des taux de change reels. De facon générate, les résultats démontrent que meme à court terme, les chocs réels constituent la principale source des fluctuations des taux de change réels. Les résultats suggérent également que l'Allemagne, les Pays-Bas et la Belgique pourraient former le noyau d'une union monétaire, alors que le Royaume-Uni et l'Espagne auraient à as-sumer des coûts d'ajustement importants. Quant aux autres pays inclus dans l'étude (la France, l'ltalie et la Suisse), ils représentent des cas intermédiaires.

La grosse difficulté dans la détermination rétrospective d’un indice des prix de détail consiste à découvrir les matériaux nécessaires à son établissement. Les documents publiés à ce sujet étant fort rares et tout à fait insuffisants force nous a été de recourir à d’autres.

L’Institut des Sciences économiques était parvenu précédemment à mettre la main sur un nombre assez considérable de données.

C’étaient notamment, aux Archives générales du Royaume, les comptes du Fonds de l’Assistance publique de Louvain avec leurs pièces justificatives; aux Archives de Louvain, les mercuriales, des registres concernant la comptabilité de la ville et de plusieurs de ses institutions de charité (hospices et hôpitaux); enfin, les comptes que certains couvents avaient bien voulu mettre à notre disposition.

Tous ces documents, sauf les comptes de l'Hôpital de Louvain et les mercuriales de la même ville, couvraient malheureusement des périodes trop courtes pour pouvoir être employés utilement.

Il est essentiel en effet, pour que les chiffres soient comparables, de maintenir autant que possible l'homogénéité des données. Ceci suppose l'identité des sources, tant pour les diverses denrées, que pour les diverses périodes envisagées. L'Institut a été assez heureux pour pouvoir se procurer une comptabilité couvrant toute la période envisagée (et au delà) et comprenant un échantillonnage presque complet des marchandises faisant l'objet du commerce de détail. C'est la comptabilité des quatre hospices d'Enghien. Ce document a servi de base à notre étude. Les prix qui y ont été relevés sont étayés par ceux figurant dans les mercuriales de Louvain et dans les comptes de ses hôpitaux : ces derniers ont d'ailleurs été largement utilisés pour la période postérieure à 1849, car ils paraissent, à certains points de vue, offrir plus de continuité dans la nature des achats que les comptes d'Enghien.

The taxation of income is usually criticized for the efficiency loss that results from distorting the intertemporal consumption decision. This argument is rejected in a world where the return to savings is random. It is shown that a distorting marginal tax on uncertain interest income serves as partial insurance and that this effect outweighs the efficiency loss, if only the first marginal dollar in tax revenue is valued less elastically than the last dollar spent on private consumption. A consumption tax — even one with intertemporally differentiated rates — would not provide insurance under these circumstances. The explicit consideration of uncertainty thus gives support to taxes that allow differentiation between the safe withdrawal of savings and the random return thereon.

The paper discusses the relationship between two problems, namely: (i) assigning a value to reduction in death probabilities, i.e. defining a « value of life », and (ii) assigning a value to changes in population, i.e. defining guidelines for the ethics and economics of population. While, for Broome, “in one sense, prolonging a person’s life and adding a new person to the world are alternative ways of doing the same things”, this paper argues that the two problems are quite distinct, in the sense that a precise answer to the first provides no guide live at all for second, and conversely. There is no inconsinstency in providing safety according to a high “value of life” while giving population growth a negative value. But there is a methodological link: both problemes have a public choice dimension, and can therefore be approached along parallel methodological lines. With respect to the economics and ethics of population, the paper offers some defense of the Pareto criterion among the living, and comments on the practice and theory of social choise.