An assessment is made of the ability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to represent the seasonal cycles of biogeochemistry of the Ross Sea over the late twentieth century. In particular, sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, surface chlorophyll a, nitrate, phosphate and silicate, and the depth of the seasonal thermocline (measuring vertical mixing) are examined to quantify the physical-biogeochemical capabilities of each model, and to provide for ‘ranked’ model ensembles. This permits critical assessment of modelled Ross Sea biogeochemical cycling, including less well observed variables such as iron and vertically integrated primary production. The assessment enables determination of model output confidence limits; these confidence limits are used to examine future model scenario projections for consideration of potential ecosystem changes. The future scenarios examined are the representative concentration pathways rcp4.5 and rcp8.5. Our study suggests that by the end of the twenty-first century under rcp4.5 and/or rcp8.5 that there will be average increases in sea surface temperature, surface chlorophyll a, integrated primary production and iron, average decreases in surface nitrate, phosphate and silicate, and relatively large decreases in the depth of the seasonal thermocline and percentage coverage by sea ice in the Ross Sea.

The Patagonian toothfish, Dissostichus eleginoides, is a valuable fishery species and has a discontinuous distribution across the Southern Ocean. Identification of the genetic stock structure of toothfish would allow evaluation of the suitability of the spatial scale at which fisheries management operates. Genetic subdivision seems likely given the species distribution. Population genetics studies of this species have been performed; however, they have been limited by sample size, spatial coverage and/or the type of markers investigated. As a potential solution, we developed methods for extracting toothfish DNA from otoliths that are available in large numbers from collections held at several research institutes. Genetic differentiation between the three oceanic sectors was investigated. Four mitochondrial and four nuclear markers with multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms were sequenced by high throughput sequencing for samples from six locations. Genetic differentiation was found between three sectors with nuclear markers. However, only the Pacific sector was differentiated from other sectors with mitochondrial markers. This study demonstrates the usefulness of otolith DNA as a means of increasing sample sizes for population genetics research of fish. Additionally, the combination of nuclear and mitochondrial markers may allow insight into how the observed differences in movements between male and female toothfish impact population structure.

Mineral soils in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), Antarctica, are commonly considered to be dry, and therefore to be good insulators with low thermal diffusivity values (~0.2 mm2 s-1). However, field measurements of soil moisture profiles with depth, coupled with observations of rapid ground ice melt, suggest that the thermal characteristics of MDV soils, and thus their resistance to thaw, may be spatially variable and strongly controlled by soil moisture content. The thermal conductivity, heat capacity and thermal diffusivity of 17 MDV soils were measured over a range of soil moisture conditions from dry to saturated. We found that thermal diffusivity varied by a factor of eight for these soils, despite the fact that they consist of members of only two soil groups. The thermal diffusivity of the soils increased in all cases with increasing soil moisture content, suggesting that permafrost and ground ice thaw in mineral soils may generate a positive thawing feedback in which wet soils conduct additional heat to depth, enhancing rates of permafrost thaw and thermokarst formation.

Any future changes in the volume of Antarctica’s ice sheets will depend on the dynamic response of outlet glaciers to shifts in environmental conditions. In the Transantarctic Mountains, this response is probably heavily dependent on the geometry of the system, but few studies have quantified the sensitivity of these glaciers to environmental forcings. Here we investigated the controls, along-flow sensitivity and time-dependent dynamics of Skelton Glacier. Three key outcomes were: i) present-day flow is governed primarily by surface slope, which responds to reduced valley width and large bed undulations, ii) Skelton Glacier is more susceptible to changes in atmospheric temperature than precipitation through its effect on basal sliding near the grounding line, and iii) under conditions representative of Pliocene and Quaternary climates large changes in ice thickness and velocity would have occurred in the lower reaches of the glacier. Based on these new quantitative predictions of the past and present dynamics of Skelton Glacier, we suggest that similar Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers could experience greater ice loss in their confined, lower reaches through increased basal sliding and ocean melt under warmer-than-present conditions. These effects are greatest where overdeepenings exist near the grounding line.

An experiment applying controlled meteorological (CMET) balloons near the coast of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, in January 2013 is described. Two balloons were airborne for 60 and 106 hours with trajectory lengths of 885.8 km and 2367.4 km, respectively. The balloons carried out multiple controlled soundings on the atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity up to 3.3 km. Wind speed and direction were derived from the balloon drift. Observations were compared with radiosonde sounding profiles from the Halley Research Station, and applied in evaluating simulations carried out with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model. The most interesting feature detected by the CMET balloons was a mesoscale anticyclone over the Weddell Sea and the coastal zone, which was reproduced by the WRF model with reduced intensity. The modelled wind speed was up to 10 m s-1 slower and the relative humidity was 20–40% higher than the observed values. However, over the study period the WRF results generally agreed with the observations. The results suggest that CMET balloons could be an interesting supplement to Antarctic atmospheric observations, particularly in the free troposphere.

Glacimarine sedimentary environments provide information about climate and oceanographic evolution in the Antarctic Peninsula. This study focuses on the generation of sediment plumes from glaciers. In February 2013 and 2014, two Chilean Antarctic Institute (INACH) Scientific Expeditions were carried out on board the Chilean Navy vessel Aquiles. Five relatively small bays were visited: Curtiss Bay, Recess Cove, Beaupre Cove, Paradise Harbour/Oscar Cove and Salvesen bay. Hydrography and turbidity profiling was carried out up to 100 m depth using an SBE19 Plus-V2 CTD-T. In general, the results showed sediment plumes at two levels: an upper plume from the surface up to 10 m deep and a deeper plume at 40–100 m. These plumes were identified by higher turbidity concentrations and their association with colder water tongues. The deeper plume tended to remain below the 1027.5 kg m-3 isopycnal and extended ~4 km from the glacier, maintaining its shape with a gradually decreasing particle concentration. This longitudinal extension was favoured by ebb tides. The characteristics of the sediment plumes may be influenced by the heat input from water masses. The contribution of the sediments from these small bay systems could play an important role in regional sedimentary processes.