The availability of nearly 100 years of bathymetric measurements allows the analysis of the morphodynamic evolution of the Dutch Wadden Sea under rising sea level and increasing human constraint. The historically observed roll-over mechanisms of landward barrier and coastline retreat cannot be sustained naturally due to numerous erosion control measures that have fixed the tidal basin and barrier dimensions. Nevertheless, the large continuous sedimentation in the tidal basins (nearly 600 million m3), the retained inlets and the similar channel-shoal characteristics of the basins during the observation period indicate that the Wadden Sea is resilient to anthropogenic influence, and can import sediment volumes even larger than those needed to compensate the present rate of sea-level rise. The largest sedimentation occurs in the Western Wadden Sea, where the influence of human intervention is dominant. The large infilling rates in closed-off channels, and along the basin shoreline, rather than a gradual increase in channel flat heights, render it likely that this sedimentation is primarily a response to the closure of the Zuiderzee and not an adaptation to sea-level rise. Most of the sediments were supplied by the ebb-tidal deltas. It is, however, unlikely that the sediment volume needed to reach a new equilibrium morphology in the Western Wadden Sea can be delivered by the remaining ebb-tidal deltas alone.

Tidal channel networks, estuaries and ebb deltas are usually formed over a period longer than observations cover. Much is known about their characteristics and formation from linear stability analyses, numerical modelling and field observations. However, experiments are rare whilst these can provide data-rich descriptions of morphological evolution in fully controlled boundary and initial conditions. Our objective is to ascertain whether tidal basins can be formed in experiments, what the possible scale effects are, and whether morphological equilibrium of such systems exists.

We experimentally created tidal basins with simple channel networks and ebb deltas in a 1.2 by 1.2 m square basin with either a fixed or self-formed tidal inlet and initially flat sediment bed in the tidal basin raised above the bed of the sea. Rather than create tides by varying water level, we tilted the entire basin over the diagonal. The advantage of this novel method is that the bed surface slopes in downstream direction both during flood and ebb phases, resulting in significant transport and morphological change in the flood phase as well as the ebb phase. This overcomes the major problem of earlier experiments which were entirely ebb-dominated, and reduces the experiment time by an order of magnitude.

Ebb deltas formed in sand were entirely bedload dominated whereas the lightweight plastic sediment was intermittently suspended. Channels bifurcated during channel deepening and backward erosion to form a network of up to four orders. For initially dry tidal plains, the tidal prism increased as more sediment eroded from basin to ebb delta, so that evolution accelerated initially. The rate of change, the size of the channels and the final length of channels and delta were very sensitive to the tidal amplitude, tidal period and initial water depth in the basin. Most experiments with sand terminated with all sediment below the threshold for motion, whilst lightweight sediment remained mobile in the inlet region and firstorder channels, suggesting that sustained morphodynamics are feasible in experiments. We discuss how this novel experimental setup can be extended to produce tidal deltas, estuaries and other tidal systems and study their dynamics as a function of their forcing.

In this article we study the morphodynamics of the Slufter on the short-term (months) and long-term (years to decades). The Slufter is a small, shallow tidal inlet located on the island of Texel, the Netherlands. A narrow (tens of meters) channel connects the North Sea with a dune valley of 400 ha. This narrow channel is located in between a 400-700 m wide opening in the dunes. Approximately 80% of the basin of the Slufter is located above mean high water level and is flooded only during storms, when a threshold water level is exceeded.

Analysis of historical aerial photographs revealed that the inlet channel migrates about 100 m per year. In the 1970's it migrated to the south, while since 1980 it is migrating to the north. When the channel reached the dunes at the north side of the dune breach the channel was relocated to the south by man. The channel inside the backbarrier basin was less dynamic. It shows a gradual growth and southward migration of a meander on a decadal time scale.

The short-term dynamics of the Slufter were studied during a field campaign in 2008. The campaign aimed at identifying the dominant hydrodynamic processes and morphological change during fair weather conditions and during storm events. During fair weather flow velocities in the main inlet channel were 0.5-0.8 m/s at water depths of 0-1.5 m, slightly ebb-dominant and associated morphological change was small. When water levels were above critical levels during a storm period the hydrodynamics in the main channel drastically changed. The flow in the main channel was highly ebb dominant. Long ebb periods with typical flow velocities of 2 m/s were alternated by much shorter flood periods with typical velocities of 0.5-1 m/s. This resulted in a net outflow of water via the main channel, while we measured a net inflow of water at the beach plain. During the storm period in 2008 we measured a 10 m migration of the channel to the north.

We conclude that the Slufter is a storm-dominated tidal inlet system.

Modelling of the shallow subsurface of the Dutch Wadden Sea is merely based on lithological information extracted from a limited amount of core samples. In order to improve the subsurface model and to provide a better basis for engineering purposes, seismic data have recently been acquired, processed and interpreted. This study focuses on the interpretation of seismic data in a pilot area in the southwestern part of the Dutch Wadden Sea near the Afsluitdijk. In order to acquire a maximum detail of subsurface information in a time-efficient way, multiple types of seismic systems were deployed simultaneously in a ‘one-sweep-survey’, providing information over depth ranges up to 60 m subsurface depth. Data from three seismic systems are presented; a chirp system, a boomer and sparker source in combination with hydrophone streamers. Geological interpretation of the seismic data was made by identifying seismic facies units and subsequently correlating them to geological cross-sections, running parallel to the Afsluitdijk. Geological cross-sections were derived from the existing geological and hydrogeological model and from relatively densely spaced borehole information. Six key reflectors were identified on the seismic data along the Dutch Afsluitdijk that make up four seismic facies units. Results of seismic profiles show good recognition of internal structures in especially Holocene sediments. A clay plug and a shallowing of a channel at the eastern side of the pilot area were interpreted as channel infills resulting from the rather sudden dominance by newer tidal channels to the west, probably coinciding with the opening of the Marsdiep channel. The channel wall deposits observed were interpreted as a turning of the drainage channel after closure of the IJsselmeer. Strong reflections of deeper levels (>15 m below Dutch vertical datum, i.e. N.A.P.) were interpreted as clay/sand interfaces in the Middle-Pleistocene Urk Formation and were more continuous than previously thought. It is concluded that high resolution seismics add valuable information yielding improved understanding of the sedimentary structure of the shallow subsurface, which in turn can be useful for near future engineering works along the Afsluitdijk.

An equilibrium dune-erosion model is used every six years to assess the capability of the most seaward dune row on the Dutch Wadden islands to withstand a storm with a 1 in 10,000 probability for a given year. The present-day model is the culmination of numerous laboratory experiments with an initial cross-shore profile based on the central Netherlands coast. Large parts of the dune coast of the Wadden islands have substantially different dune and cross-shore profile characteristics than found along this central coast, related to the presence of tidal channels, ebb-tidal deltas, beach-plains and strong coastal curvature. This complicated coastal setting implies that the predictions of the dune-erosion model are sometimes doubtful; accordingly, a shift towards a process-based dune-erosion model has been proposed. A number of research findings based on recent laboratory and field studies highlight only few of the many challenges that need to be faced in order to develop and test such a model. Observations of turbulence beneath breaking waves indicate the need to include breaking-wave effects in sand transport equations, while current knowledge of infragravity waves, one of the main sand transporting mechanisms during severe storm conditions, is strongly challenged by laboratory and field observations on gently sloping beaches that are so typical of the Wadden islands. We argue that in-situ and remote-sensing field observations, laboratory experiments and numerical models need to be the pillars of Earth Scientific research in the Wadden Sea area to construct a meaningful process-based dune-erosion tool.

Hydrogeological research in coastal areas has gained considerable attention over the last decades due to increasing stresses on fresh groundwater resources. Fundamental groundwater flow and solute transport analyses remain essential for a concise understanding of the governing processes that lead to salinisation of fresh groundwater resources. However, the challenge of modern research is the application and quantification of these processes in real world cases. In this context, deltaic areas are amongst the most difficult study areas as they often have a complex groundwater salinity distribution. The Wadden Sea area in the northern part of the Netherlands is an example of such an area.

We quantified salt water intrusion and salinisation of groundwater flow systems in two representative case studies in the Wadden Sea area, using the density dependent groundwater flow and transport code M0CDENS3D. The results indicate that sea-level rise and autonomous processes will cause severe salinisation in the future, especially in the low polder areas close to the sea. In addition, we show that enhanced land subsidence due to salt exploitation accelerates this process. Salinisation can be mitigated to some extent by raising surface water levels in polders and by creating saline groundwater collection areas that maintain a low controlled water level.

Subsidence caused by extraction of hydrocarbons and solution salt mining is a sensitive issue in the Netherlands. An extensive legal, technical and organisational framework is in place to ensure a high probability that such subsidence will stay within predefined limits. The key question is: how much subsidence is acceptable and at which rate? And: how can it be reliably assured that (future) subsidence will stay within these limits?

To address the issue for the Wadden Sea area, the concept of ‘effective subsidence capacity’ is used. To determine the ‘effective subsidence capacity’, the maximum volumetric rate of relative sea-level rise, that can be accommodated in the long term, without environmental harm, is established first. The volume of sediment that can be transported and deposited by nature into the tidal basin where the subsidence is expected, ultimately determines this ‘limit of acceptable average subsidence rate’. The capability of the tidal basins to ‘capture’ sediment over the lunar cycle period of 18.6 years is the overall rate-determining step. Effective subsidence capacity is then the maximum average subsidence rate available for planning of human activities. It is obtained by subtracting the subsidence volume rate ‘consumed’ by natural relative subsidence in the area (sealevel rise plus natural shallow compaction) from the total long-term acceptable subsidence volume rate limit.

In the operational procedure for mining companies, six-years-average expectation values of subsidence rates are used to calculate the maximum allowable production rates. This is done under the provision that production will be reduced or halted if the expected or actual subsidence rate (natural + man induced) is likely to exceed the limit of acceptable subsidence. Monitoring and management schemes ensure that predicted (6-year average) and actual (18.6-year average) subsidence rates stay within the limit of acceptable subsidence rate and that no damage is caused to the protected nature. A GPS based early warning system is used for early detection of unexpected behaviour. In support of SSM (State Supervision of Mines, the government regulator), TNO-AGE (an independent government advisory group) applies an independent Bayesian statistical analysis of all data, as they become available, to calculate the probability of scenario's under which future subsidence will exceed the defined limits. It is external to the operator's annual measurement and control loop and ensures that preventive actions can be taken in time in case such scenarios emerge.

Regular communication keeps the authorities and the general public informed on the use of the effective subsidence capacity to demonstrate that the actual average subsidence rate stays strictly within the defined bounds and that, from a scientific point of view, there is no reasonable doubt that damage to the tidal system will not occur now or in the future.