Occurrences and developments of claims are modelled as a marked point process. The individual claim consists of an occurrence time, two covariates, a reporting delay, and a process describing partial payments and settlement of the claim. Under certain likelihood assumptions the distribution of the process is described by 14 one-dimensional components. The modelling is nonparametric Bayesian. The posterior distribution of the components and the posterior distribution of the outstanding IBNR and RBNS liabilities are found simultaneously. The method is applied to a portfolio of accident insurances.

We give 2 explicit formulae for the hedging portfolio of Asian options. One is based on the usual Lognormal approximation, and the other on an Inverse Gaussian approximation. Both give excellent results as replicating strategies when the parameters of the model are in a reasonable range.

The purpose of this note is to draw attention to a semimartingale method which can be applied to very general types of risk models to obtain local martingales or martingales, which can then be used in the now classical way to evaluate ruin probabilities. Relations to the theory of exponential families of stochastic processes are also pointed out and utilized.

Simple analytical lower and upper bounds are obtained for stop-loss premiums and ruin probabilities of compound Poisson risks in case the mean, variance and range of the claim size distribution are known. They are based on stop-loss extremal distributions and improve the bounds derived earlier from dangerous extremal distributions. The special bounds obtained in case the relative variance of the claim size is unknown, but its maximal value is known, are related to other actuarial results.

Two methods for approximating the limiting distribution of the present value of the benefits of a portfolio of identical endowment insurance contracts are suggested. The model used assumes that both future lifetimes and interest rates are random. The first method is similar to the one presented in Parker (1994b). The second method is based on the relationship between temporary and endowment insurance contracts.

The correlation order, which is defined as a partial order between bivariate distributions with equal marginals, is shown to be a helpfull tool for deriving results concerning the riskiness of portfolios with pairwise dependencies. Given the distribution functions of the individual risks, it is investigated how changing the dependency assumption influences the stop-loss premiums of such portfolios.

We consider three classes of bivariate counting distributions and the corresponding compound distributions. For each class we derive a recursive algorithm for calculating the bivariate compound distribution.

Recursions are derived for a class of compound distributions having a claim frequency distribution of the well known (a,b)-type. The probability mass function on which the recursions are usually based is replaced by the distribution function in order to obtain increasing iterates. A monotone transformation is suggested to avoid an underflow in the initial stages of the iteration. The faster increase of the transformed iterates is diminished by use of a scaling function. Further, an adaptive weighting depending on the initial value and the increase of the iterates is derived. It enables us to manage an arbitrary large portfolio. Some numerical results are displayed demonstrating the efficiency of the different methods. The computation of the stop-loss premiums using these methods are indicated. Finally, related iteration schemes based on the cumulative distribution function are outlined.

Policyholders often decide to buy, renew, or cancel insurance based on the premium charged by the insurer compared with what they expect their claims will be. It is important for actuaries to consider the persistency of policyholders because the financial well-being of the insurer depends on spreading its risk over a large book of business. We use statistical decision theory to develop premium formulas that account for the past experience of a given policyholder, the experience of the entire collection of policyholders, and the likelihood of the policyholder renewing with or buying from a given insurer, that is, persistency.

We assume that the persistency of policyholders depends on the arithmetic difference between the premium charged and their anticipated claims. We extend the work of Taylor (1975) in which he obtains linear credibility formulas by minimizing loss functions that incorporate the persistency of policyholders. We consider Taylor's loss functions and other objective functions, including those that account for the amount of business the insurer writes or renews.

This paper examines a class of premium functionals which are (i) comonotonic additive and (ii) stochastic dominance preservative. The representation for this class is a transformation of the decumulative distribution function. It has close connections with the recent developments in economic decision theory and non-additive measure theory. Among a few elementary members of this class, the proportional hazard transform seems to stand out as being most plausible for actuaries.

In the present note we deduce a class of bounds for the difference between the stop-loss transforms of two compound distributions with the same severity distribution. The class contains bounds of any degree of accuracy in the sense that the bounds can be chosen as close to the exact value as desired; the time required to compute the bounds increases with the accuracy.

There is a duality between the surplus process of classical risk theory and the single-server queue. It follows that the probability of ruin can be retrieved from a single sample path of the waiting time process of the single-server queue. In this paper, premiums are allowed to vary. It has been shown that the stationary distribution of a corresponding storage process is equal to the survival probability (with variable premiums). Thus by simulation of the corresponding storage process, the probability of ruin can be obtained. The special cases where the surplus earns interest and the premiums are charged by layers are considered and illustrated numerically.

This paper shows how a multivariate Bayes estimator can be adjusted to satisfy a set of linear constraints. In the direct approach, the constraint is enforced by a restriction on the class of admissible estimators. In an alternative approach, the constraint is merely encouraged by a mixed risk function which penalises misbalance between the estimator and the constraint. The adjustment to the optimal unconstrained estimator is shown to depend on the risk function and the linear constraints only, not on the probability model underlying the Bayes estimator. Two practical examples are given, one of which involves reconciliation of independently assessed share values with current market values.

The chain ladder method is a simple and suggestive tool in claims reserving, and various attempts have been made aiming at its justification in a stochastic model. Remarkable progress has been achieved by Schnieper and Mack who considered models involving assumptions on conditional distributions. The present paper extends the model of Mack and proposes a basic model in a decision theoretic setting. The model allows to characterize optimality of the chain ladder factors as predictors of non-observable development factors and hence optimality of the chain ladder predictors of aggregate claims at the end of the first non-observable calendar year. We also present a model in which the chain ladder predictor of ultimate aggregate claims turns out to be unbiased.

The premiums for a bonus-malus system which stays in financial equilibrium over the years are calculated. This is done by minimizing a quadratic function of the difference between the premium for an optimal BMS with an infinite number of classes and the premium for a BMS with a finite number of classes, weighted by the stationary probability of being in a certain class, and by imposing various constraints on the system.