This paper investigates the effects of demographic shifts on labor productivity by leveraging variation in the age structure of Italian regions. These effects are analyzed along a first channel – the direct relation between population age and productivity – and a second channel capturing the productivity implications of a more or less dispersed age distribution. We propose an estimation framework that relates regional productivity to the entire age distribution of the working-age population and use instrumental variable techniques to address endogeneity issues. The estimates yield a hump-shaped age-productivity profile peaking between 35 and 40 years. We also document non-linear effects of regional age dispersion on productivity.

The emergence of COVID-19 has resulted in a notable rise in mortality rates, consequently affecting various sectors, including the insurance industry. This paper analyzes the reflections of a sudden increase in mortality rates on the financial performance of a survival benefit scenario under the International Financial Reporting Standard 17. For this purpose, we thoroughly examined a single insurance scenario under four different states by modifying the interest and jump elements. We use Poisson-log bilinear Lee–Carter and Vasicek models for mortality and stochastic interest rate, respectively. Integrating the mortality model with a jump model that incorporates COVID-19 deaths we constructed a temporary mortality jump model. As a result, the temporary mortality jump model reflects the effects of the pandemic more realistically. We observe that even in this case mortality has a minor impact, whereas interest rates significantly still affect the financial position and performance of insurance companies.

Statistical discrimination offers a compelling narrative on gender wage gaps among younger workers. Employers could reduce women's wages to adjust for expected costs linked to child-bearing. If this is the case, then trends toward delayed fertility should reduce the gender wage gap among young workers. We provide a novel collection of adjusted gender wage gap (AGWG) estimates among young workers from 56 countries spanning four decades and use it to test the conjecture that delayed fertility reduces gender wage inequality. We employ instrumental variables, and find that one year postponement of the first birth reduces AGWG by two percentage points (15% of the AGWG). We benchmark this estimate with the help of time-use data.

China is entering a deeply aging society gradually, and individual pension allocation behavior has a profound impact on the practice and effect of national strategies to actively cope with population aging. This paper constructs a dyad model based on the influence path of social network ties in individual commercial pension insurance purchasing decisions, and then validates the path by building a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) based on Bayesian approach with the national longitudinal sample data of China. The empirical results show that, firstly, strong ties social interaction (e.g., visiting friend's house) positively influences individuals' commercial pension insurance purchase behavior; secondly, the less the frequency of individual social interaction is, the less significant the positive influence of social interaction on individual commercial pension insurance product purchase is; finally, between 2013 and 2018, the intensity and frequency of social interactions among middle-aged and elderly people in China has been changed dramatically by the shock of the popularity and development of digital social tools. The influence of strong ties social interaction on insurance purchase behavior becomes weaker and weaker, while that of weak ties becomes stronger.

Identifying the impact of remittances on household members remaining behind is difficult due to selection into migration. In this paper, we exploit an unexpected embargo on Qatar, the second major destination among Nepali migrants. Using longitudinal data on about 1,500 Nepali households with migrants prior to the embargo, we assess how this shock translates into changes in remittances and development outcomes. We find a 56% reduction in remittances for households with a migrant in Qatar. At least in the months immediately after the shock, such a fall in remittances does not seem to translate into recipient household's welfare. However, we cannot exclude that such effect might materialize in the medium run. That is particularly true for poor and credit-constrained households, especially vulnerable to the remittance windfall and lacking the ability to move their migrants or other household members to other destinations.

This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts × 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted “U-shape” relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961–2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior and green technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.

Recent technological advancements have facilitated alternative work arrangements. This paper investigates how flextime and working from home (WfH) relate to workers’ well-being using longitudinal data drawn from the Understanding Society study for the UK. It accounts for individual, job, and family characteristics while controlling for individual fixed effects. Additionally, it employs the Oster test to examine the potential influence of unobserved variables. Results show that men experience improved job satisfaction and mental health with flextime arrangements, while women predominantly benefit in terms of job satisfaction. Additionally, women adopting remote work report heightened satisfaction with job and life, and better mental health, whereas men primarily report greater job satisfaction. Interestingly, flextime effects are stronger for men, while WfH is more beneficial for women. Some heterogeneous effects are also found by parental status, age, and income groups.

I contribute to the literature on the growth of public spending in Western economies with a novel mechanism that ties it to the marketization process, i.e. the substitution of home with market production. I argue that a key contributor to the expansion of social spending is the replacement of family-based transfers with public pensions and other public transfer programs. I provide empirical support for this hypothesis by establishing the long-run relationship between government size and marketization, alongside other established determinants of government spending, in a panel of Western economies. I then illustrate a potential mechanism behind the results with a theoretical model in which, as a result of the productivity advantage of the market over the home sector, family-based intergenerational transfers decline unexpectedly, providing a rationale for government intervention in the form of public pensions with a poverty relief component.

This study explores the relationship between maternal working hours and a child's emotional well-being using data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Child well-being is assessed through self-reported happiness and a well-being index that includes concerns, temperament, bullying, and behaviour. Results show a positive association between maternal employment and child well-being, supported by factor analysis combining child, mother, and teacher reports. The association remains consistent across income levels and is unaffected by commuting time or cohabitation status. These findings highlight the importance of maternal employment and contextual factors in shaping child well-being.

We study the effect of an immigration ban on the self-selection of immigrants along cultural traits, and the transmission of these traits to the second generation. We show theoretically that restricting immigration incentivizes to settle abroad individuals with higher attachment to their origin culture, who, under free mobility, would rather choose circular migration. Once abroad, these individuals tend to convey their cultural traits to their children. As a consequence, restrictive immigration policies can foster the diffusion of cultural traits across boundaries and generations. We focus on religiosity, which is one of the most persistent and distinctive cultural traits, and exploit the 1973 immigration ban in West Germany (Anwerbestopp) as a natural experiment. Through a diff-in-diff analysis, we find that second generations born to parents treated by the Anwerbestopp show higher religiosity.

This paper examines how the number of siblings that parents have affects their fertility decisions in China. The population control policies in China affected individuals unequally across birth cohorts and regions. The exogenous variation in fertility is used to identify the effect of the number of siblings on the number of children for the next generation. The results show that a couple tends to have 0.034–0.068 more children (2.3–4.6% of the average number of children) and is 2.4–6.8 percentage points more likely to violate the One-Child Policy (9.3–27.1% of the violation rate) if the husband and the wife have one more sibling each. Moreover, the effect on fertility is stronger for couples in lower-income provinces where the fertility rate is higher and in rural areas where the One-Child Policy was enforced less strictly. Finally, I show that the ideal family size of the husband and wife is an important channel through which the number of siblings affects fertility. I also find that the effect of people's number of siblings has a larger effect on their ideal number of children than on their actual number of children, suggesting that they are constrained from achieving their fertility ideals.

This study examines disparities in health and nutrition among native and Syrian refugee children in Turkey. To understand the need for targeted programs addressing child well-being among the refugee population, we analyze the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) – which provides representative data for a large refugee and native population. We find no evidence of a difference in infant or child mortality between refugee children born in Turkey and native children. However, refugee infants born in Turkey have lower birthweight and age-adjusted weight and height than native infants. When we account for a rich set of birth and socioeconomic characteristics that display substantial differences between natives and refugees, the gaps in birthweight and age-adjusted height persist, but the gap in age-adjusted weight disappears. Moreover, the remaining gaps in birthweight and anthropometric outcomes are limited to the lower end of the distribution. The observed gaps are even larger for refugee infants born before migrating to Turkey, suggesting that the remaining deficits reflect conditions in the source country before migration rather than deficits in access to health services within Turkey. Finally, comparing children by the country of their first trimester, we find evidence of the detrimental effects of stress exposure during pregnancy.

We study whether the increased adoption of available automation technologies allows economies to avoid the negative effect of aging on per capita output. We develop a quantitative theory in which firms choose to which extent they automate in response to a declining workforce and rising old-age dependency. An important element in our model is the integration of two capital types: automation capital that acts as a substitute to human labor, and traditional capital that is a complement to labor. Empirically, our model's predictions largely match data regarding automation (robotization) density across OECD countries. Simulating the model, we find that aging-induced automation only partially compensates the negative growth effect of aging in the absence of technical progress in automation technology. One reason is that automated tasks are no perfect substitutes for non-automated tasks. A second reason is that automation raises the interest rate and thus inhibits positive behavioral reactions to aging (later retirement and investment in human capital). Moreover, increased automation generates a falling net labor share of income and rising welfare inequality. We evaluate alternative policy responses to cope with this inequality.

Individuals who serve in the military substitute work experience for post-secondary educational attainment after high school, leading to large educational attainment gaps between new veterans and observably similar nonveterans. Little is known about the evolution of these gaps by age and across cohorts. We investigate the life-cycle attainment of veterans relative to nonveterans using a synthetic panel data approach. Following five multiyear birth cohorts we find that, on average, veterans close a 20-percentage point gap in attainment of a bachelor's or greater over time and significantly outpace observably similar nonveterans in attainment of an associate's degree. Female and minority veterans exceeded the attainment of similar nonveterans over time, and more recent birth cohorts began with larger gaps but closed them at younger ages due to increasing levels of both enrollment and enrollment intensity. Our findings highlight the important role of military service in facilitating social mobility through educational attainment.

Many Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries invest heavily in labor-market programs to prolong careers. Although active labor-market programs have frequently been evaluated, less is known about passive programs supporting unemployed seniors financially. We focus on the latter by investigating the hiring opportunities of candidates who partake in a regime that ensures dismissed seniors a company supplement alongside regular unemployment benefits. Therefore, we conduct a scenario experiment in which genuine recruiters evaluate fictitious candidates who have spent varying durations unemployed in regimes with and without the company supplement. Because recruiters evaluate candidates' hireability and productivity perceptions, we can identify underlying mechanisms. Overall, we find no evidence of employer-side stigma hindering the re-employment of seniors unemployed in the program. Conversely, longer-term unemployed even benefit from this regime because it mitigates regular stigmatization of long-term unemployment, especially for men. Specifically, recruiters judge them more mildly – particularly regarding flexibility – when they receive the supplement and still apply.

This paper introduces a new set of comprehensive and cross-country-comparable indexes of migration policy selectivity. Crucially, these reflect the multidimensional nature of the differential treatment of migrants. We use these indexes to study the evolution of migration policy selectivity and estimate how they affect migration flows. Combining all publicly available and relevant data since WWII, we build three composite indexes that identify selectivity in terms of skills, economic resources and nationality. First, we use these to characterize migration policies in 42 countries between 1990 and 2014. Second, we examine the relationship between the selectivity of migration policy and migration flows. Each of the three dimensions of migration policy is found to correlate strongly and significantly with both the size and structure of migration flows.

While the Chinese government's stated position is to support religious freedom, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is officially atheist. Individuals who profess faith are typically unable to join and members who practice a religion face expulsion and a loss of benefits. This paper analyzes the extent to which the CCP's policies regarding religion may influence religious identification over the life cycle in China. To do so, we contrast changes in religious affiliation before and after retirement for CCP members and non-CCP members. We find a significant increase of religious activities and religious faith in CCP members after retirement – suggesting: (1) people's acknowledgment of religious belief is significantly influenced by CCP regulations and (2) the biggest influence from a material benefits perspective occurs for those CCP members employed in the Chinese government system.

We are the first to study how the resources freed up when a child, child-in-law, or grandchild moves out of a household are reallocated, taking into account the age of the leaver. Using the 2011 and 2013 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we document that, on average, the remaining household members save part of the resources freed up by the leaver and consume another part. Differentiating the leavers by age, we find that after the departure of a member of the younger generation aged 0–24, the remaining household members save the resources freed up by the leaver. However, if the leaver is above 24, they spend the freed-up resources. Our results are robust to the use of different specifications, estimation methods, and consumption aggregates. Finally, we observe that remittances directed toward non-resident offspring do not increase after the departure of a member of the younger generation.