This paper analyzes optimal investment policies for pension funds of a defined benefit (DB) type. The nature of a DB fund induces a natural modeling of preferences being of the mean-downside risk type. With compensation for inflation as an explicit goal of a pension fund, a natural reference point for the risk measure is the future (indexed) value of the liabilities. Results are presented for different levels of inflation uncertainty and its correlation with stock returns. The optimal decision rules show increased risk-taking for funding ratios moving away from the discounted value of the reference point. Furthermore, it is shown that the outcomes are comparable with those using a mean-downside deviation criterion. We provide intuition for the results and compare the outcomes with actual investment policies of six large Dutch pension funds.

We investigate delegated investment management in private pension accounts using data from Australian accumulation (superannuation) funds. In Australian non-profit pension funds, trustees choose investment managers on behalf of members. We find that funds with many delegated managers have higher risk-adjusted returns than those with few. However funds with 13 or less specialized managers show no improvement over funds with a single diversified manager. All do worse than a benchmark portfolio of asset-class indices. Further, by using random selection to mimic the choices of an uninformed individual choosing from the same menu of delegate managers as used by trustees, we show that returns from pension funds with large numbers of trustee-selected managers compare favorably with returns from randomly selected, equally weighted portfolios. However this improvement falls off quickly for funds with fewer trustee-selected managers, or when randomly selected portfolios are also diversified across asset classes. Results indicate that an uninformed individual following a naive diversification strategy would have done as well as most trustee boards in this sample.

The Pension Benefits Guarantee Fund (PBGF) was established in the province of Ontario in 1980, thus creating in Canada a rare opportunity for intranational empirical research on the impacts of governmental protection on private plans and their participants. This paper examines Canadian data on pension plans for effects attributable to Ontario's government guarantees for some plans. We find that significant variables related to an increase in the number of pension plans in Canada are higher interest rates, a larger labour market, and, consistent with the deferred compensation theory from labour economics, lower real disposable income of workers. The number of members in pension plans is related significantly to the same variables and also to tax rates and unemployment. The analyses show that the Ontario environment for pension plans is significantly different from the rest of Canada. Those plans covered by the Pension Benefit Guarantee Fund exhibit a lower degree of funding per participant than do the remainder of the plans in the sample, supporting the argument that a government guarantee is related to a moral hazard problem in Ontario pension financing.

An important research programme in the social sciences concerns the theory and practice of individual decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. At the same time, it is apparent that western governments increasingly rely upon individuals to plan and maintain savings programmes to meet their income aspirations: the long-term retirement income of those outside of the welfare state depends a great deal on the competence and consistency of individual decision-making. In this paper, we use a set of problems requiring the same techniques of judgement to test the consistency of trustee decision-making. Respondents were a group of trustees drawn from select UK defined benefit pension plans compared with a larger group of Oxford undergraduates. It was found that many respondents were inconsistent across related problems requiring the application of probabilistic judgement. It is also shown that trustees were more consistent than many undergraduates and it appears that trustee education and professional qualifications can make a positive difference to consistent decision-making. A more challenging test that depends upon understanding the relationship between demographic ageing, immigration, and the financing of pay-as-you-go social security suggests that substantive knowledge and consistency of judgement are crucial components of expertise. Implications are drawn for the trustee institution and the wider debate over the role and significance of individual decision-making with respect to income aspirations.