1964 was not in fact a stagnant year—as some of the economic indicators in the summer and early autumn were beginning to suggest. There is a good deal of evidence—in the production index, and in provisional figures for consumers' expenditure and exports—which points to a strong rise in output towards the end of the year. So the national product during 1964— that is from the fourth quarter of 1963 to the fourth quarter of 1964—probably rose by some 3½ per cent. This was less, of course, than the very rapid increase during 1963 ; but it was still well above the average of the last decade.

For 1964 as a whole, fixed investment was 16 per cent higher than in 1963. This comparison, however, overstates the rise to some extent, since—because of the weather—building output was very low in the first quarter of 1963. If we take simply the last three quarters of the year, the increase becomes 13 per cent (table 5).

The industrial production index gave a rather misleading impression of stagnation in the middle of the year. There had been a sharp rise from the fourth quarter of 1963 to the first quarter of 1964; then the index was flat for two quarters; and finally in the fourth quarter there was another substantial jump. This made the increase during the year (between the fourth quarter of 1963 and 1964) 5½ per cent. For the year as a whole industrial production was 7½ per cent higher than in 1963. This apparent slowing-down in the middle of the year was probably partly genuine —there is some evidence for it in the estimates from the side of expenditure (page 5)—and partly probably a change in seasonal patterns.

The year 1964 was on the whole one of continued growth in industrial production and expanding trade both in industrial and in primary producing countries. There was, however, some slowing down in industrial output in the second half of the year and marked divergencies appeared between developments in different countries.