What is a ‘cascading failure’? Whilst most people have an intuitive idea of what is meant by cascading, no definition exists within the framework of reliability theory. The aim of this paper is to explore the field of component dependence within a network structure, and to construct a definition of cascading failure.

We study the best achievable performance (in terms of the average queue size and delay) in a stochastic and dynamic version of the bin-packing problem. Items arrive to a queue according to a Poisson process with rate 2ρ, where ρ ∈ (0, 1). The item sizes are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) with a uniform distribution in [0, 1]. At each time unit, a single unit-size bin is available and can receive any of the queued items, as long as their total size does not exceed 1. Coffman and Stolyar (1999) and Gamarnik (2004) have established that there exist packing policies under which the average queue size is finite for every ρ ∈ (0, 1). In this paper we study the precise scaling of the average queue size, as a function of ρ, with emphasis on the critical regime where ρ approaches 1. Standard results on the probabilistic (but static) bin-packing problem can be readily applied to produce policies under which the queue size scales as O(h2), where h = 1 / (1 - ρ), which raises the question of whether this is the best possible. We establish that the average queue size scales as Ω(hlogh), under any policy. Furthermore, we provide an easily implementable policy, which packs at most two items per bin. Under that policy, the average queue size scales as O(hlog3/2h), which is nearly optimal. On the other hand, if we impose the additional requirement that any two items packed together must have near-complementary sizes (in a sense to be made precise), we show that the average queue size must scale as Θ(h2).

In this paper we consider a single-server queue with Lévy input and, in particular, its workload process (Qt)t≥0, with a focus on the correlation structure. With the correlation function defined as r(t) := cov(Q0, Qt) / var(Q0) (assuming that the workload process is in stationarity at time 0), we first determine its transform ∫0∞r(t)e-ϑtdt. This expression allows us to prove that r(·) is positive, decreasing, and convex, relying on the machinery of completely monotone functions. We also show that r(·) can be represented as the complementary distribution function of a specific random variable. These results are used to compute the asymptotics of r(t), for large t, for the cases of light-tailed and heavy-tailed Lévy inputs.

In this paper we present a stability criterion for processor-sharing queues, in which the throughput may depend on the number of customers in the system (such as in the case of interferences between users). Such a system is represented by a point measure-valued stochastic recursion keeping track of the remaining processing times of the customers.

Customers arriving at a queue do not usually see its time-average behavior unless arrivals occur according to a Poisson process. In this article we study how nearly customers see time-average behavior. We give total variation error bounds for comparing the distance between the time- and customer-average distributions of a queueing system in terms of properties of the interarrival distribution. Some refinements are given for special cases and numerical computations are used to demonstrate the performance of the inequalities.

In this paper, a new approach is proposed to investigate Blackwell-type renewal theorems for weighted renewal functions systematically according to which of the tails of weighted renewal constants or the underlying distribution is asymptotically heavier. Some classical results are improved considerably.

A decision-making body may utilize a wide variety of different strategies when required to make a collective decision. In principle, we would like to use the most effective decision rule, that is, the rule yielding the highest probability of making the correct decision. However, in reality we often have to choose a decision rule out of some restricted family of rules. Therefore, it is important to be able to rank various families of rules. In this paper we consider three classes of decision rules: (i) balanced expert rules, (ii) the so-called single expert rules, and (iii) restricted majority rules. For the first two classes, we show that, as we deviate from the best rule in the family, the effectiveness of the decision rule decreases. For the last class, we obtain a very different phenomenon: any inner ranking is possible.

Recently, Makri, Philippou and Psillakis (2007b) studied the exact distribution of success run statistics defined on an urn model. They derived the exact distributions of various success run statistics for a sequence of binary trials generated by the Pólya-Eggenberger sampling scheme. In our study we derive the joint distributions of run statistics defined on the multicolor urn model using a simple unified combinatorial approach and extend some of the results of Makri, Philippou and Psillakis (2007b). As a consequence of our results, we obtain the joint distributions of success and failure runs defined on the two-color urn model. The results enable us to compute the characteristics of particular consecutive-type systems and start-up demonstration tests.

In the subfair red-and-black gambling problem, a gambler can stake any amount in his possession, winning an amount equal to the stake with probability w and losing the stake with probability 1 − w, where 0 < w < ½. The gambler seeks to maximize the probability of reaching a fixed fortune (to be normalized to unity) by gambling repeatedly with suitably chosen stakes. In their classic work, Dubins and Savage (1965), (1976) showed that it is optimal to play boldly. When there is a house limit of l (0 < l < ½), so that the gambler can stake no more than l, Wilkins (1972) showed that bold play remains optimal provided that 1 / l is an integer. On the other hand, building on an earlier surprising result of Heath, Pruitt and Sudderth (1972), Schweinsberg (2005) recently showed that, for all irrational 0 < l < ½ and all 0 < w < ½, bold play is not optimal for some initial fortune. The purpose of the present paper is to present several results supporting the conjecture that, for all rational l with 1 / l not an integer and all 0 < w < ½, bold play is not optimal for some initial fortune. While most of these results are based on Schweinsberg's method, in a special case where his method is shown to be inapplicable, we argue that the conjecture can be verified with the help of symbolic-computation software.

We study investment and disinvestment decisions in situations where there is a time lag d > 0 from the time t when the decision is taken to the time t + d when the decision is implemented. In this paper we apply the probabilistic approach to the combined entry and exit decisions under the Parisian implementation delay. In particular, we prove the independence between Parisian stopping times and a general Brownian motion with drift stopped at the stopping time. Relying on this result, we solve the constrained maximization problem, obtaining an analytic solution to the optimal ‘starting’ and ‘stopping’ levels. We compare our results with the instantaneous entry and exit situation, and show that an increase in the uncertainty of the underlying process hastens the decision to invest or disinvest, extending a result of Bar-Ilan and Strange (1996).

We study a model arising in chemistry where n elements numbered 1, 2, …, n are randomly permuted and if i is immediately to the left of i + 1 then they become stuck together to form a cluster. The resulting clusters are then numbered and considered as elements, and this process keeps repeating until only a single cluster is remaining. In this article we study properties of the distribution of the number of permutations required.

We present two new stochastic volatility models in which option prices for European plain-vanilla options have closed-form expressions. The models are motivated by the well-known SABR model, but use modified dynamics of the underlying asset. The asset process is modelled as a product of functions of two independent stochastic processes: a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and a geometric Brownian motion. An application of the models to options written on foreign currencies is studied.

In this paper, a fourth moment bound for partial sums of functionals of strongly ergodic Markov chains is established. This type of inequality plays an important role in the study of the empirical process invariance principle. This inequality is specially adapted to the technique of Dehling, Durieu, and Volný (2008). The same moment bound can be proved for dynamical systems whose transfer operator has some spectral properties. Examples of applications are given.

The representation of the reliability function of the lifetime of a coherent system as a mixture of the reliability function of order statistics associated with the lifetimes of its components is a very useful tool to study the ordering and the limiting behaviour of coherent systems. In this paper, we obtain several representations of the reliability functions of residual lifetimes of used coherent systems under two particular conditions on the status of the components or the system in terms of the reliability functions of residual lifetimes of order statistics.

By considering k-out-of-n systems with independent and nonidentically distributed components, we discuss stochastic monotone properties of the residual life and the inactivity time. We then present some stochastic comparisons of two systems based on the residual life and inactivity time.

In this paper we study the properties of total time on test transforms of order n and examine their applications in reliability analysis. It is shown that the successive transforms produce either distributions with increasing or bathtub-shaped failure rates or distributions with decreasing or upside bathtub-shaped failure rates. The ageing properties of the baseline distribution is compared with those of transformed distributions, and a partial order based on nth-order transforms and their implications are discussed.

In this paper we study the α-stable continuous-state branching processes (for α ∈ (1, 2]) and the α-stable continuous-state branching processes conditioned never to become extinct in the light of positive self-similarity. Understanding the interaction of the Lamperti transformation for continuous-state branching processes and the Lamperti transformation for positive, self-similar Markov processes gives access to a number of explicit results concerning the paths of α-stable continuous-state branching processes and α-stable continuous-state branching processes conditioned never to become extinct.

The upper tail behaviour is explored for a stopped random product ∏j=1NXj, where the factors are positive and independent and identically distributed, and N is the first time one of the factors occupies a subset of the positive reals. This structure is motivated by a heavy-tailed analogue of the factorial n!, called the factoid of n. Properties of the factoid suggested by computer explorations are shown to be valid. Two topics about the determination of the Zipf exponent in the rank-size law for city sizes are discussed.

A sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables with success probabilities a / (a + b + k − 1), k = 1, 2, 3, …, is embedded in a marked Poisson process with intensity 1. Using this, conditional Poisson limits follow for counts of failure strings.

We study the number of collisions, Xn, of an exchangeable coalescent with multiple collisions (Λ-coalescent) which starts with n particles and is driven by rates determined by a finite characteristic measure η(dx) = x−2Λ(dx). Via a coupling technique, we derive limiting laws of Xn, using previous results on regenerative compositions derived from stick-breaking partitions of the unit interval. The possible limiting laws of Xn include normal, stable with index 1 ≤ α < 2, and Mittag-Leffler distributions. The results apply, in particular, to the case when η is a beta(a − 2, b) distribution with parameters a > 2 and b > 0. The approach taken allows us to derive asymptotics of three other functionals of the coalescent: the absorption time, the length of an external branch chosen at random from the n external branches, and the number of collision events that occur before the randomly selected external branch coalesces with one of its neighbours.