Reconstruction of human ecosystems and their stability over time provides knowledge of the processes of adaptability developed by isolated communities. Seasonality of vital events is a good indicator of the effects of different ‘traditional’ lifestyles, which in turn depend on the ecological context in which a population developed specific subsistence models. Seasonality of births reflects the cultural attitude towards the best time to conceive, in relation to work activities and loads; the latter may also affect physiological functions related to fertility. The present research concerns gross birth rates and seasonality of births and conceptions during four centuries in south-central Italy. Birth rates were between 33·0 and 36·5 per 1000. The pattern of seasonality of births and, by extension, of conceptions defines a southern-type agricultural area for the earlier periods. However, it also shows a progressive shift towards an increasing concentration of conceptions in spring–summer – namely from April to August – with a large increase in summer in the 19th century with respect to the previous periods. The new 19th century pattern is reported by Crisafulli, Dalla Zuanna & Solero (2000) as being representative of the central Adriatic region, a geographical classification to which Abruzzo can also be attributed.

This study identified the influences of neonatal and maternal factors on premature birth and low birth weight in New South Wales, Australia. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to explore the association of selected neonatal and maternal characteristics with premature birth and low birth weight. The findings of this study showed that premature birth and low birth weight rate significantly varied by infant sex, maternal age, marital status, Aboriginality, parity, maternal smoking behaviour during pregnancy and maternal hypertension. First-born infants, and infants born to mothers aged less than 20 years, or who were single, separated/divorced, Aboriginal or who smoked during the pregnancy, were at increased risk of being premature or of low birth weight. This study also found that risk factors for premature births and low birth weight were similar in both singleton and multiple births. Gestational age was confirmed to be the single most important risk factor for low birth weight. The findings of this study suggest that in order to reduce the incidence of low birth weight and premature births, health improvement strategies should focus on antismoking campaigns during pregnancy and other healthcare programmes targeted at the socially disadvantaged populations identified in the study.

The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife’s age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2=0·853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection.

Using data on 9762 women from the 1997 Yemen Demographic and Maternal and Child Health Survey, this paper examines the prevalence and socioeconomic correlates of consanguineous marriages in Yemen. The results indicate that 40% of marriages are consanguineous, over 85% of which are between first cousins. The prevalence of consanguineous marriages appears to have increased over time, particularly for the last marriage cohort. As for socioeconomic correlates, the study confirms the inverse association between consanguineous marriages and women’s education and occupation, age at marriage and economic status. However, no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of consanguinity has been found by place of residence and geographical region. Somewhat unexpected results have been obtained by husband’s background characteristics, with higher educated men and those working in the modern sector of the economy being more likely to be married to cousins.

This paper presents a new approach to cost analysis of family planning programmes that focuses on behaviour change of programme clients as the final ‘output’ rather than units of contraceptive services delivered, as does the familiar couple-years-of-protection index. It is useful to know how much it costs to deliver a unit of contraceptive services, but it would also seem useful to know how much it costs to change a prospective client’s behaviour. The proposed approach rests on the familiar ‘steps to behaviour change’ paradigm and: (1) develops a methodology for applying a client-behaviour-change-centred cost analysis to programme activities; (2) tests the methodology and concepts by applying them retrospectively to a case study of mass media interventions in Egypt; (3) derives cost per unit of behaviour changes for these Egyptian communications campaigns to demonstrate the workability of the approach. This framework offers a new approach to impact evaluation that would seem to be applicable to other components of family planning and reproductive health programmes.

Improved child health and survival are considered universal humanitarian goals. In this respect, understanding the nutritional status of children has far-reaching implications for the better development of future generations. The present study assessed, first, the nutritional status of children below 5 years using the three anthropometric measures weight-for-age, height-for-age and weight-for-height in two states of India, Kerala and Goa. Secondly, it examined the confounding factors that influence the nutritional status of children in these states. The NFHS-I data for Kerala and Goa were used. The results showed that the relative prevalence of under-weight and wasting was high in Kerala, but the prevalence of stunting was medium. In Goa, on the other hand, the relative prevalence of wasting and underweight was very high, and that of stunting was high. Both socio-economic and family planning variables were significantly associated with malnutrition in these states, but at varied levels. The study recommends more area-specific policies for the development of nutritional intervention programmes.

This paper examines the impact of rural–urban migration on under-two mortality in India, using data from the 1992/93 Indian National Family Health Survey. Multilevel logistic models are fitted for mortality in three age groups: neonatal, early post-neonatal, and late post-neonatal and toddler. Migration status was not a significant determinant of mortality in any of the three age groups. Further analysis shows that a relationship between migration status and mortality exists when socioeconomic and health utilization variables are omitted from the models. The relationship between migration and mortality is thus explained by differences in socioeconomic status and use of health services between rural–urban migrant and non-migrant groups. The selectivity of rural–urban migrants on socioeconomic characteristics creates mortality differentials between rural–urban migrants and rural non-migrants. Problems faced by migrants in assimilating into urban societies create mortality differentials between rural–urban migrants and urban non-migrants. These results highlight the need to target migrants in the provision of health services, and demonstrate that rural areas continue to have the highest levels of infant–child mortality. Further research is needed to understand the health care needs of rural–urban migrants in order to inform the provision of appropriate health care.

The associations between cigarette smoking before and during pregnancy and maternal body size (pre-pregnancy weight status, end of pregnancy weight status, weight gain during pregnancy) and newborn size (birth weight, length, head circumference, arcomial circumference), as well as birth modus, were tested in 7803 single full-term births in Vienna. Nicotine consumption before and during pregnancy was found to be associated with smaller and lighter newborns, although maternal weight status and weight gain during pregnancy was signi.cantly higher in smokers. Furthermore, a higher incidence of Caesarean sections was found in smokers. A reduction in the number of daily smoked cigarettes was associated with a lower percentage of low weight newborns (<2500 g).

Recent studies in sub-Saharan Africa have shown that fertility is reduced among HIV-infected women compared with uninfected women. The size and pattern of this fertility reduction has important implications for antenatal clinic-based surveillance of the epidemic and also for estimates and projections of the demographic impact of the epidemic. This paper examines the association between HIV and fertility in Kisesa, a rural area in Tanzania, where HIV prevalence among adults is about 6% and gradually increasing. The analysis is based on data obtained through a demographic surveillance system in Kisesa during 1994–98 and two large sero-surveys of all residents in 1994–95 and 1996–97. The HIV-associated fertility reduction among women was investigated by estimating fertility rates by HIV status and prevalence rates by fertility status. A substantial reduction (29%) was observed in fertility among HIV-infected women compared with HIV-uninfected women. The fertility reduction was most pronounced during the terminal stages of infection, but no clear association with duration of infection was observed. Use of modern contraception was higher among HIV-infected women. However, both among contracepting and noncontracepting women, a substantial reduction in fertility was seen among HIV-infected women.

Based on the authors’ interview survey for 608 randomly selected women of the rural Arab population in the South Ghor district of Jordan, this paper examined the effects of polygyny and consanguinity on high fertility, which was recognized as natural fertility. The prevalence of polygynous and consanguineous marriages was 28·0% and 58·1%, respectively, largely reflecting the population’s traditional marriage customs. The findings highlighted a significantly higher total marital fertility rate (TMFR) in the monogamous wives (10·5) than in the senior polygynous (8·1) and junior polygynous wives (8·6); the TMFR did not significantly differ among the wives of non-consanguineous, first-cousin and second-cousin marriages. The formation of polygynous marriage was decided by the husband, mostly as a result of his senior wife’s infecundity or sub-fecundity, and the age of the husband at marriage to his junior polygynous wife was high in many cases, leading to a decline in this wife’s fecundity.

Analysing time-dependent independent variables requires the use of process-oriented statistical models. Yet social scientists – especially those in poor countries – have often had to use data collected at a single point in time, making their task difficult. Making several assumptions about the covariates, the present study uses survival analysis and other statistical techniques to analyse the 1996 South African population census data and examine the effects of selected independent variables on the timing of parenthood in the country. It was found that the onset of parenthood occurs late in South Africa compared with the pattern in most other African societies. While education plays a role in the postponement of parenthood within racial groups, it fails to explain the differences between African and Coloured women on the one hand, and White and Asian women on the other hand, a finding that suggests the existence of two regimes of family formation in South African society.

There is no doubt about the reality of the secular increase in cognitive test scores. However, there is disagreement about a key issue: does the observed increase reflect a genuine upward trend in intelligence? Evidence from the Raven test is clear, although there are some doubts about its adequacy as a fine-grained measure of fluid intelligence. Evidence from the so-called ‘method of correlated vectors’ is much less clear. When a crystallized battery is considered, the results leave little doubt: the increase does not reflect gains in general intelligence. However, when a fluid battery is analysed, the increase does reflect gains in general intelligence. The present study uses one of the best available measures of fluid intelligence (the Culture-Fair intelligence test) to provide new evidence for the secular increase in fluid intelligence, beyond the findings from the Raven test and the method of correlated vectors. A total of 4498 Spanish high school students and high school graduates were tested within a time interval of 20 and 23 years, respectively. The results show that there is a clear upward trend in intelligence. Moreover, students show an average increase equivalent to 6 IQ points, while graduates show an average increase of 4 IQ points. Therefore, more selected people (graduates) show a smaller increase than less selected people (students). Some implications are discussed.

This paper considers the age pattern of mortality between conception and first birthday. It highlights the various problems that still limit our understanding of the ways in which the age components of mortality are associated, especially during the perinatal period. A mathematical function is fitted which captures the interaction between six mortality components for a typical high mortality society, one in which the infant mortality rate is 150 per thousand live births. This experiment helps to clarify the need to link infant with fetal mortality, to conduct further research on the level of risk in each component, and to consider the cumulative early-age mortality profile in its entirety.

It has been argued that patrilineal joint family systems tend to bias family planning decisions in favour of sons. A simple model suggests that in such societies, any given son will be more highly valued by his parents (1) the fewer his brothers and (2) the earlier his birth is in the brother series. A daughter's value will be greater (1) the fewer brothers she has and (2) the earlier her birth is relative to other sisters. This study first addresses the extent of son preference as inferred from family composition data for 772 Taiwanese first-graders born in the mid-1970s in two socioeconomically distinct communities in Taipei, Taiwan. It then uses linear regression to consider whether the model criteria help account for statural variation among children in each study area when controlling for differences in measurement age, parental education and housing. With respect to family composition and gender preference, available evidence was consistent with previous surveys. While better-educated parents in the more affluent study area had significantly fewer children (p<0·0005) and were more willing to stop without a son, girls there, as in the less affluent area, were still significantly more likely than boys to belong to large sibships (p≤0·005). Evidence from mean height of males and females partially accords with hypothetical predictions. In the less affluent area, the interaction effect of male birth order and the presence of younger siblings was significantly associated with mean stature (p=0·002). Males without brothers were 2·0 cm taller than males with either an older or a younger brother (116·3 ± 0·5 cm vs 114·3 ± 0·4 cm). Males who had both younger and older brothers, but often no sisters, were about as tall, however, as those without brothers. A similar, but less pronounced, pattern was found amoung males in the more affluent area, but only among those who had sisters. These boys were also consistently shorter than boys without sisters (115·6 ± 0·6 cm vs 117·7 ± 0·6 cm; p=0·001). Patterns of mean female stature did not clearly support the hypothesis. Girls in the more affluent area were relatively tall and did not show significant variation. Results among less affluent girls showed significant contrasts, but not necessarily in the predicted direction.

This analysis used data, primarily from the 1997 Vietnamese Demographic and Health Survey (VN-DHS 1997), to determine the changes in contraceptive use in Vietnam. A descriptive analysis of individual, household and community characteristics was made to obtain a general description of contraceptive use. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were also performed on the currently married in (a) a sample of all women and (b) only those women who live in rural areas, to identify the strength of association that each variable has with the use of modern contraceptives. The use of any contraceptive method and the use of modern methods increased from 1988 to 1997. The primary contraceptive method utilized is the IUD and its use has increased substantially from 1988 to 1997. Younger women (aged 15–24) were less likely to use any contraceptive method. Women not desiring additional children were significantly more likely to use contraceptive methods than those desiring more children. Education has a clear impact on both contraceptive knowledge and use by women, with higher educated women being more likely to use a contraceptive method. Illiterate women with no formal education were significantly less likely to use modern methods of contraception. Differentials in contraceptive use exist regarding place of residence. Urban women are more likely than rural women to use contraception, but the difference is not large. Women living in mountainous areas are less likely to use contraception, compared with women living in the lowlands. Living standards, especially the availability of electricity in the community, have a large effect on the methods of contraception adopted by women. Religion is not strongly related to the contraceptive behaviour of women. There were significant differences in the use of contraceptives in communities with good quality of care, with increased contraceptive use corresponding to the increase in availability of family planning workers at communes, provision of counselling services at health facilities, and the volume of mass media family planning messages.

An innovative social marketing intervention in Pakistan distributes audiocassettes via chemist shops and Lady Health Visitors (LHVs) to reach women in a segregated society with accurate information on hormonal contraceptives. Operations research was done to assess the utility of the cassette in knowledge dissemination and adoption of hormonal use. In total 187 structured questionnaires were completed with couples who had obtained a cassette. Listeners were significantly more knowledgeable than non-listeners about correct use of hormonals (OR=8·6 for women and OR=12·7 for men). Hormonal use increased from 12% to 25%. LHVs also organized discussion groups for women, and attending such a chat group was the strongest predictor for adoption of pills and injectables (OR=4·15). Equivalent male groups are suggested to reach apprehensive men. By providing accurate information to urban couples and by acquiring a knowledgeable critical mass of satisfied users, the cassette could be a powerful catalyst to further contraceptive diffusion.

The intervals between pregnancies have important effects on fertility and maternal and infant health outcomes. This study uses linear regression with censored observation to assess the determinants of the waiting time to third pregnancy. The analysis is applied to data from the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey consisting of 1172 women who had their second delivery ending in a live birth. Contraceptive use, age of the woman, duration of breast-feeding, length of previous pregnancy interval and education of the woman all affect the waiting time to third pregnancy significantly.

The current surge in childlessness is often seen as an alternative lifestyle amidst growing pluralism and individualism. The results of this study indicate that several subgroups of childless women need to be differentiated: those who actively decide to forgo children in favour of other life pursuits and those who merely defer the decision. Both have accumulated a high degree of human capital in their education or career-building paths. Thus, the increase of a woman's time invested in education or career formation takes its toll on the time available for childrearing. A survey performed among female academics (N=193) brought to light that among childless women, many merely mean to postpone motherhood until their career prospects are established. Differences between those who outwardly reject motherhood and those who defer the decision can be seen in a variety of job- and career-related aspects. However, due to misconceptions about fertility, many of those who merely intended to postpone children may inevitably end up ‘involuntarily childless’. As this trend is most likely to increase in the near future, the resolution of this conflict will be an important milestone in the development of modern industrialized countries. As can be seen from this survey, financial benefits will not induce women to enter into motherhood. Rather, societal and infrastructural changes have to be brought about in order to induce women to enter into motherhood.

The association between perception of risk of HIV infection and sexual behaviour remains poorly understood, although perception of risk is considered to be the first stage towards behavioural change from risk-taking to safer behaviour. Using data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, logistic regression models were fitted to examine the direction and the strength of the association between perceived risk of HIV/AIDS and risky sexual behaviour in the last 12 months before the survey. The findings indicate a strong positive association between perceived risk of HIV/AIDS and risky sexual behaviour for both women and men. Controlling for sociodemographic, sexual exposure and knowledge factors such as age, marital status, education, work status, residence, ethnicity, source of AIDS information, specific knowledge of AIDS, and condom use to avoid AIDS did not change the direction of the association, but altered its strength slightly. Young and unmarried women and men were more likely than older and married ones to report risky sexual behaviour. Ethnicity was significantly associated with risky sexual behaviour, suggesting a need to identify the contextual and social factors that influence behaviour among Kenyan people.

The perspectives of mothers-in-law about intra-household decision-making, family size and family planning are investigated, and their views compared with those of their sons and daughters-in-law. Women (717 daughters-in-law), their husbands (717 sons) and their 522 mothers-in-law were interviewed in eight squatter settlements in Karachi, Pakistan. Decisions about the schooling and health care of children, and the purchase of jewellery, are perceived to lie within the nuclear family domain (i.e. husband and wife). There was a difference in mothers-in-law’s, daughters-in-law’s and sons’ desire to have more children. Twenty-eight per cent of mothers-in-law versus 58% of daughters-in-law did not want more grandsons/sons and 36% of mothers-in-law versus 66% of daughters-in-law did not want more granddaughters/daughters. The difference was markedly greater among the mother-in-law/daughter-in-law pairs than in the mother/son pairs. Overall, the mother-in-law’s role seems to be somewhat overshadowed by that of her son (family male member), except for limiting family size. It is suggested that mothers-in-law should be included in Information–Education–Communication (IEC) campaigns about family planning.