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This chapter describes three main numerical methods to model hazards which cannot be simplified by analytical expressions (as covered in Chapter 2): cellular automata, agent-based models (ABMs), and system dynamics. Both cellular automata and ABMs are algorithmic approaches while system dynamics is a case of numerical integration. Energy dissipation during the hazard process is a dynamic process, that is, a process that evolves over time. Reanalysing all perils from a dynamic perspective is not always justified, since a static footprint (as defined in Chapter 2) often offers a reasonable approximation for the purpose of damage assessment. However, for some specific perils, the dynamics of the process must be considered for their proper characterization. A variety of dynamic models is presented here, for armed conflicts, blackouts, epidemics, floods, landslides, pest infestations, social unrest, stampedes, and wildfires. Their implementation in the standard catastrophe (CAT) model pipeline is also discussed.
In the past, Vietnam was impacted by numerous epidemics, particularly during the Nguyễn Dynasty from 1802 to 1883. Based on data from the Đại Nam Thực Lục (1961) (The Veritable Records of the Great South), this article investigates the frequency and nature of these epidemics, identifies the types of common diseases at that time, and explores the underlying causes of these outbreaks. The study further examines the Nguyễn Dynasty's strategies for managing these health crises. During these outbreaks, the dynasty faced significant challenges, with frequent epidemics leading to high death rates, widespread social disruption, and economic decline. The dynasty's primary preventive measures, heavily reliant on spiritual practices like prayer, highlight the limited medical understanding at the time and the constraints of its socio-political framework. However, there was a progressive shift towards the incorporation of Western medical innovations, particularly in the vaccine approach to treat diseases like smallpox. This transition not only marked a critical evolution in the local healthcare approach but also set the stage for more systematic medical advancements in Vietnam during the colonial period (1884–1945).
The World Health Organization declared the current monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on July 23, 2022, as it has posed a great threat to human health. This bibliometric analysis aimed to explore the current research hotspots focused on monkeypox.
Methods
A systematic search of the Web of Science Core Collection database was conducted for published articles on monkeypox from database inception to February 23, 2023. VOSviewer software was used for analysis and visualization of research results.
Results
A total of 1646 publications on monkeypox virus were included for bibliometric analysis. Results showed that (1) the number of publications about monkeypox virus increased significantly in 2022, (2) smallpox and monkeypox virus were popular research keywords, (3) the United States has made the most significant contribution to the study of monkeypox virus, (4) Journal of Virology was the most active journal in publishing articles about monkeypox, and (5) research themes mainly included the body’s reaction after monkeypox infection, epidemiology, diagnosis, and pathological mechanisms.
Conclusions
Future research should focus on early sensitive diagnostic measures of monkeypox and the development of vaccines based on the characteristics of the virus. Study findings also provided key areas for public health experts to focus on and collaborate with policymakers.
The 1830s were dominated by the cholera pandemic (1826−37) and epidemics of influenza, typhus, and typhoid (1836−42). These events were so important at the time that the discourse of popular protest became interwoven with the language of contagion and of sanitary reform. The reformist unrest of the 1830s was recast in Charles Dickens’s Barnaby Rudge (1841) as the 1780 Gordon riots. This chapter explores the extent to which the political and religious unrest in Barnaby Rudge mimics epidemic transmission by placing the novel alongside modern epidemiological studies of urban riots. Further, Dickens connects the 1830s discourses of epidemic and riot with madness, focussing on the problem of the undiagnosability of madness. Barnaby Rudge raises important questions about the transmission of dangerous ideas. Moreover, it connects these to the problem of individual culpability in the case of intellectual disability.
This paper retrospectively analysed the prevalence of macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MRMP) in some parts of China. Between January 2013 and December 2019, we collected 4,145 respiratory samples, including pharyngeal swabs and alveolar lavage fluid. The highest PCR-positive rate of M. pneumoniae was 74.5% in Beijing, the highest resistance rate was 100% in Shanghai, and Gansu was the lowest with 20%. The highest PCR-positive rate of M. pneumoniae was 74.5% in 2013, and the highest MRMP was 97.4% in 2019; the PCR-positive rate of M. pneumoniae for adults in Beijing was 17.9% and the MRMP was 10.48%. Among the children diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), the PCR-positive and macrolide-resistant rates of M. pneumoniae were both higher in the severe ones. A2063G in domain V of 23S rRNA was the major macrolide-resistant mutation, accounting for more than 90%. The MIC values of all MRMP to erythromycin and azithromycin were ≥ 64 μg/ml, and the MICs of tetracycline and levofloxacin were ≤ 0.5 μg/ml and ≤ 1 μg/ml, respectively. The macrolide resistance varied in different regions and years. Among inpatients, the macrolide-resistant rate was higher in severe pneumonia. A2063G was the common mutation, and we found no resistance to tetracycline and levofloxacin.
With recent epidemics such as COVID-19, H1N1 and SARS causing devastating financial loss to the economy, it is important that insurance companies plan for financial costs of epidemics. This article proposes a new methodology for epidemic and insurance modelling by combining the existing deterministic compartmental models and the Markov multiple state models to facilitate actuarial computations to design new health insurance plans that cover epidemics. Our method is inspired by the seminal paper (Feng and Garrido (2011) North American Actuarial Journal, 15, 112–136.) of Feng and Garrido and complements the work of Hillairet and Lopez et al. in Hillairet and Lopez ((2021) Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2021(8), 671–694.) and Hillairet et al. ((2022) Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 107, 88–101.) In this work, we use the deterministic SIR model and the Eyam epidemic data set to provide numerical illustrations for our method.
Melancholy is an ‘epidemicall’ disease, Burton says, noting the multitude of causes which, along with human wickedness and inherent humoral imbalances, explain the extensive and increasing suffering he observes around him. His observations tell us little about seventeenth-century epidemiology, I argue. Moreover, the meanings accorded to seemingly familiar terms such as ‘disease’, ‘symptom’, and ‘epidemic’ rest on assumptions that leave them orthogonal to today’s standard etiological medical assumptions. Yet they find resonance within recent broad theorizing about the concept of disease, in public health emphases and alternative medicine, as well as in the larger health culture of our times.
The amount of people worldwide who regularly used opioids in 2021 is staggering, and if something is not done to change the course of this epidemic, the numbers will continue to increase year over year, just as they have done over the last decade. Roughly 275 million people globally report having used drugs of any kind in the past year, an increase of almost 50 million people over the past ten years. While some of this increase was due to the 10% rise in global population over the same period, this alone cannot account for the entirety of the 22% rise in global drug use. Health-care systems around the world are being stretched beyond their capabilities to manage a population this large, and the number of people with opioid use disorder is projected to continue to increase in size over the next decade. The effects of the opioid epidemic on healthcare systems are particularly devastating in poorer and middle-income countries with less robust resources. Over the past decade the number of individuals with opioid use disorder has increased by almost 9 million, an increase of over 33%, and now affects 0.7% of the current global population.
Understanding the relationship between infectious disease outbreaks and natural disasters is important in developing response and disaster risk reduction strategies. The aim of this study was to identify outbreaks associated with natural disasters during the past 20 y, and outline risk factors and mechanisms for postdisaster outbreaks. Review of the international disaster database (EM-DAT) and systematic review of the literature were conducted. The records of disaster events in EM-DAT during the past 20 y were screened. A literature search was carried out in the databases PubMed and Embase. Articles in English language published between 2000 and 2020 were searched. Data were extracted from articles and Narrative synthesis was used to summarize the findings. We found 108 events associated with epidemics, the majority being floods. We found 36 articles, most of them focused on outbreaks after floods. Risk factors and mechanisms that contributed to the outbreaks were mainly related to the consequences of disaster and its impact on the environment and living conditions of population. Infrastructure readiness and postdisaster measures play important roles in controlling the spread of epidemics after natural disasters. More evidence and research are required for better understanding of the association between natural disasters and infectious diseases outbreaks.
This article proposes the adoption of a multi-modal system for allocating vaccine doses during large transnational outbreaks of infectious diseases. The chosen allocative criteria (public health need; country-income level; qualification through funding; and, subsidiarily, a modified lottery system) are adapted from a current embodiment of allocative multi-modality outside the context of public health: the New York City Marathon.
The contagiousness of childbed fever was first recognised by Alexander Gordon in Aberdeen in 1795. Epidemics occurred in cities, rural communities and lying-in hospitals. In the USA Oliver Wendell Holmes caused uproar by saying doctors were carriers of disease. In 1848 Semmelweis reduced the death rate in Vienna’s maternity hospital by introducing handwashing but was not recognised until later. In the 1870s panic took hold in England. Midwives were charged with homicide and the hospital death rate in London was 2.6%. In Europe Billroth described the streptococcus and Pasteur showed that it caused puerperal sepsis. In Britain Listerian asepsis transformed surgery and reduced the death rate in lying-in hospitals. In the 1930s Colebrook worked on aseptic maternity practice. In Germany Domagk discovered prontosil and in 1936 Colebrook demonstrated its life-saving effects. Fleming discovered penicillin and Florey and Chain turned it into an antibiotic. Maternal mortality fell rapidly. By 1982-4 antibiotics had abolished deaths from puerperal sepsis but by 2006-8 sepsis was again the leading cause of Direct death and the Reports emphasised the need for constant vigilance.
This chapter explores the assumptions and struggles of public health’s long history. It is an opportunity to question what public health is and where it is going, based on where it has been. Following the social philosopher Michel Foucault (1926–84), the public health knowledge presented is viewed as a product of its time, culture and context rather than the result of progress: a linear path of discovery (Foucault, [1969] 2002). Accordingly, this chapter examines current public health principles and practices resulting from the actions of historic heroes and innovators as much as chance and folly. This chapter introduces readers to the different lenses through which public health has been viewed and practised, from individualist, behaviourist and biomedical perspectives through to cultural and socio-environmental; from ancient Greece to 19th-century Prussia. Australia’s and New Zealand’s histories are also explored, showing how different approaches to public health have (de)emphasised the importance of collective action. The chapter concludes with an examination of this tension in contemporary public health: tobacco control.
The COVID-19 epidemic showed inter-regional differences in Italy. We used an ecological study design and publicly available data to compare the basic reproduction number (R0), the doubling time of the infection (DT) and the COVID-19 cumulative incidence (CI), death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and time lag to slow down up to a 50-days doubling time in the first and the second 2020 epidemic waves (δDT50) by region. We also explored socio-economic, environmental and lifestyle variables with multiple regression analysis. COVID-19 CI and CFR changed in opposite directions in the second vs. the first wave: the CI increased sixfold with no evidence of a relationship with the testing rate; the CFR decreased in the regions where it was initially higher but increased where it was lower. The R0 did not change; the initially mildly affected regions, but not those where the first wave had most severely hit, showed a greater δDT50 amplitude. Vehicular traffic, average temperature, population density, average income, education and household size showed a correlation with COVID-19 outcomes. The deadly experience in the first epidemic wave and the varying preparedness of the local health systems might have contributed to the inter-regional differences in the second COVID-19 epidemic wave.
Pathogens and humans have coexisted for a long time. Studies suggest that, even before recorded history, nomadic populations are likely to have suffered from a plethora of diseases, such as malaria and perhaps yellow fever. The transition to a sedentary lifestyle anchored around small villages, and later on the establishment of large urban centers from Mesopotamia to the Indus Valley and what is modern-day China, paved the way for the increased spread and diversification of these pathogens. High population density, the comingling of humans and animals, and the proliferation of trade routes linking once-distant urban areas enabled viruses, bacteria, and other pathogens to propagate quickly and travel progressively farther. To this day, these dynamics set forth in antiquity continue to play out in similar ways in a world that has become more connected and densely populated.
1. Viral diseases continue to emerge and represent a serious issue to public health internationally.
2. A coronavirus is responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Other notable coronaviruses include severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).
3. COVID-19 binds via the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor on type II alveolar cells and the intestinal epithelium in a similar manner to the SARS virus.
4. The World Health Organization’s strategy of controlling a pandemic was challenged by COVID-19.
5. Many lessons have since been learnt regarding our ability in the NHS to react to a pandemic. These include the need for adequate personal protective equipment, rapid diagnostic testing of patients and staff and use of methods to communicate with relatives of patients who were seriously ill or dying in the intensive care unit.
The COVID-19 pandemic struck Spain severely from the beginning. Prevention via information that fosters knowledge, reasonable concern, control, and personal care is the most effective means to slow down the pandemic. In this intervention field study, first, we assessed actual knowledge, concern, control, and care about the COVID-19 in 111 Spanish university teachers and students. Subsequently, we randomly assigned them to two groups. One group (n = 53) received uncertain information about prevention measures, whereas the other group (n = 58) received certain information. Analysis of covariance, using baseline measures as covariates, revealed that the group receiving the certain information reported an immediately increased perceived control and personal care about the pandemic. These findings suggest that measures that are known to be effective in COVID-19 prevention, if communicated with certainty (i.e., solid evidence), could influence people's attitudes, possibly through the schematic organisation of new information.
In December 2019, an outbreak of an unknown cause of pneumonia (later named coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]) occurred in Wuhan, China. This was found to be attributed to a novel coronavirus of zoonotic origin, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; previously named 2019 novel coronavirus or 2019-nCoV). The SARS-CoV-2, a new type of highly pathogenic human coronavirus related to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), spread rapidly worldwide and caused 246,303,023 confirmed infections, including 4,994,160 deaths, by October 31, 2021. SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV vary in their specific characteristics, regarding epidemics and pathogenesis. This article focuses on the comparison of the virology, epidemiology, and clinical features of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 to reveal their common and distinct properties, to provide an up-to-date resource for the development of advanced systems and strategies to monitor and control future epidemics of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global traumatic experience for citizens, especially during sensitive time windows of heightened plasticity such as pregnancy and neonatal life. Pandemic-related stress experienced by mothers during pregnancy may act as an early risk factor for infants’ regulatory capacity development by altering maternal psychosocial well-being (e.g., increased anxiety, reduced social support) and caregiving environment (e.g., greater parenting stress, impaired mother–infant bonding). The aim of the present longitudinal study was to assess the consequences of pandemic-related prenatal stress on infants’ regulatory capacity. A sample of 163 mother–infant dyads was enrolled at eight maternity units in northern Italy. They provided complete data about prenatal stress, perceived social support, postnatal anxiety symptoms, parenting stress, mother–infant bonding, and infants’ regulatory capacity at 3 months of age. Women who experienced emotional stress and received partial social support during pregnancy reported higher anxious symptoms. Moreover, maternal postnatal anxiety was indirectly linked to the infants’ regulatory capacity at 3 months, mediated by parenting stress and mother–infant bonding. Dedicated preventive interventions should be delivered to mothers and should be focused on protecting the mother–infant dyad from the detrimental effects of pandemic-related stress during the COVID-19 healthcare emergency.